Vol. 301 No. 10
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the employment participation rate of women over 24 years of age for each of the years from 1972 to 1977; and if this trend is expected to continue in the coming years in the light of the recent ESRI Report on Employment Projections.
14.
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the current estimated number of women at work and seeking work who are over 24 years of age for purposes of economic and social planning; and what the figure will be in 1986 if trends of the past four years continue.
With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, I propose to take questions Nos. 12 and 14 together.
Prior to 1975, accurate data on female participation rates disaggregated by age-cohort could be derived only from the full Census of Population. As this is normally taken every five years, annual figures are simply crude interpolations of the quinquennial data.
Due to the cancellation of the 1976 census by the previous Government, it is not possible to derive annual estimates which are strictly comparable with the 1971 census data. Estimates of current participation rates are based on the 1975 Community Labour Force Survey.
With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, I propose to circulate with the Official Report a table showing female participation rates differentiated by age-group for 1971 and 1975. The data for 1971 are based on the Census of Population returns. I stress that the results of the labour force survey are not directly comparable with the census data because of definitional problems and the sample nature of the survey.
I presume the Deputy is referring to the NESC report, "Population and Employment Projections 1986" which contains a range of labour force projections differentiated by sex and age group. The range incorporates alternative assumptions regarding female participation rates, namely, that:
(1) the 1975 participation rate remains stable in the period to 1986, and,
(2) the 1971-75 trend, adjusted for an expected slower trend rate for married women, will continue in the period to 1986.
The results of the 1975 Community sample survey showed that in 1975, 170,400 women aged 25 or over described themselves as "at work" or "unemployed, having lost or given up previous job". For the purposes of economic and social planning, it is assumed that female participation rates since 1975 have moved in line with the adjusted 1971-75 trend. On this basis, the number of women aged 25 years and over who are currently at work or seeking work is estimated at about 172,000. This estimate and related assumptions may have to be revised in the light of the results of the 1977 Community Labour Force Survey expected in 1978.
If female participation rates continue to move in line with the adjusted 1971-75 trend in the period to 1986, then the figure for that year corresponding to the 1975 estimate would be about 181,000.
Labour force participation rates (per cent) among women aged 25 and over, 1971 and 1975
|
Age-group |
1971 |
1975 |
|
25-29 |
34.6 |
38.4 |
|
30-34 |
21.6 |
23.7 |
|
35-39 |
18.9 |
18.5 |
|
40-44 |
19.3 |
22.1 |
|
45-49 |
20.1 |
22.6 |
|
50-54 |
21.5 |
23.0 |
|
55-59 |
21.8 |
21.1 |
|
60-64 |
20.7 |
18.4 |
|
65-69 |
11.3 |
10.4 |
|
70+ |
3.9 |
NOTE: (i) the data for 1971 are derived from the Census of Population returns while the 1975 figures are those published in the Community Labour Force Survey 1975. Because of the partial coverage of the sample survey, the latter figures are subject to sampling errors. For this reason and for reasons related to fundamental differences, both conceptual and definitional, between the two sources, the census data cannot be directly compared with the sample survey figures.
(ii) the data for 1975 shown above differ marginally from those in the report published by the Central Statistics Office on the survey as the latter extends not only to persons resident in private households but also to persons usually resident in institutions.
I am sure the Chair will agree that the Minister's reply was very long and that many supplementaries arise from it. Does the Minister agree that the increase in the female participation rate based on the recent survey on employment projections, which in turn was based on the 1975 EEC labour survey budgets for an increase only in line with the male participation rate? Therefore, it does not provide——
The Deputy is making a statement; he should ask a question. Surely the Deputy is aware that long statements are not permitted at Question Time?
Even if one takes the highest projected trend increase for female participation it adds on at most about 1,000 per year to the expected number seeking work and since there is already talk about the effect of taking lower unemployment rates and so on I hope the Deputy will agree that 1,000 is relatively small if we are talking about a problem where we need on average somewhere well in excess of 20,000 jobs per year. Does the Deputy really want to fight over whether it is 23,000 or 24,000?
No. I am trying to ascertain from the Minister what his Department bases its future job projection plans on in view of statements by him and other Ministers in relation to creating up to 28,000 jobs per year.
Since the Deputy has asked a question he should wait for a reply without continuing to back up his question with a statement which is argumentative and disorderly.
I have already indicated that as far as unemployment is concerned the long-run acceptable target is nil, or as closely as we can go. In so far as participation rates are concerned I have already indicated that we would start off with two sets of trends but we would also have to take account of, from the Deputy's point of view, the most unfavourable trend.
Would the Minister not agree that the female participation rate of women over 24 in Ireland is roughly half that of the rest of the EEC? Given that the trend is in that direction is it not conceivable that our rate of participation will double by 1986 thereby creating 170,000 new jobs which have not been budgeted for in any projection to date?
I am guided in this matter by the work of the experts in the field and if the Deputy is in possession of some information which would enable a firmly based advance forecast to be made I would be delighted if it was given to me.
If the participation rate was to reach EEC levels by 1986 would the real employment needs per year up to 1986 be somewhere in the region of 43,000 to 45,000?
I would be delighted to find myself confronted with that problem. Most of the statements from that side of the House seem to indicate that we are not going to be able to achieve full employment by 1986, but now the Deputy is worried about what will happen when we achieve it.
I am concerned about full employment and women's rights.
So am I.
13.
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the ratio between Ireland and the rest of the EEC of employment participation rates of women between 25 and 54 years of age.
It is not possible to answer the question in the form requested by the Deputy because the necessary information is not available. However, on the basis of available information, a comparison can be made between employment participation rates for women in Ireland and in the European Community as a whole. It is not possible to aggregate the various age groups between 25 and 54 years of age to provide an average participation rate for the whole group.
With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle I propose to have the reply which is in the form of a tabular statement circulated with the Official Report. Following is the statement:
Labour Force Participation rates among women (per cent) in the European Communities
|
Age-Group |
|||||||||||
|
25-29 |
30-34 |
35-39 |
40-44 |
45-49 |
50-54 |
55-59 |
60-64 |
65-69 |
70+ |
Total |
|
|
Ireland |
38.4 |
23.7 |
18.5 |
22.1 |
22.6 |
23.0 |
21.1 |
18.4 |
10.4 |
3.9 |
19.5 |
|
EEC (9) |
50.9 |
45.6 |
45.3 |
46.1 |
46.4 |
43.9 |
36.2 |
19.1 |
7.5 |
2.0 |
27.5 |
|
Ratio of Ireland to EEC (9) |
3:4 |
1:2 |
2:5 |
1:2 |
1:2 |
1:2 |
4:7 |
1:1 |
4:3 |
2:1 |
2:3 |
Source: Labour Force Sample Survey, 1975, published by Statistical Office of the European Communities in 1977.
Does the reply indicate that the female participation rate is, as I stated, about half that of the rest of the EEC?
The Deputy will be able to see that when he reads the Official Report.
It would help me to frame some supplementaries.
The reply would help the Deputy and I will reply to any further questions he wishes to put to me.
15.
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the estimated job creation requirement per annum in order to achieve full employment by 1986; and if this estimate makes provision for an increase in female participation in line with trends of the past four years.
The recent Report of the National Economic and Social Council (No. 35): "Population and Employment Projections 1986: A Reassessment" stated that over the 11 years from 1975 to 1986 a net increase in non-agricultural employment of between 18,000 and 23,000 jobs a year would be required to reduce unemployment to a 4 per cent level in 1986. These figures would require to be adjusted by roughly 1,000 a year for every one percentage point variation in the unemployment rate chosen.
The NESC estimates incorporate two assumptions regarding female participation which I have already dealt with.
While my Department is in broad agreement with the NESC projections and the assumptions underlying them, I nevertheless recognise that they must be continuously reviewed and adjusted in the light of the most up-to-date information as it becomes available.
