——our forecast is that net non-agricultural employment will expand by between 12,000 to 14,000 persons per year. Our employment performance can improve but it will depend on our wage competitiveness vis-à-vis our trading partners. Estimates based on the Department of Finance economic model is that for every 1 per cent improvement in competitiveness we can achieve an extra 4,000 jobs at home from spending under the National Development Plan. It is important to say that this variable is under our control. The effectiveness of the plan in achieving its employment targets will depend on the extent to which we discipline ourself on incomes over the period of the plan to ensure that we get the best long term value from investments made under the plan. That depends very much on ourselves and whether we are prepared to ensure that we get maximum value.
The achievement of the job targets will depend on the situation in Europe. It is of concern that the European economy is showing a net loss of output this year of 0.5 per cent and the outlook for the European economy is not too optimistic in the short term. I hope we will get serious growth initiatives at European level that will ensure the markets to which we sell our goods expand. That is a way we can get the best value from investments made under the National Development Plan and out of the growth in output which we are seeking to achieve under the plan. We need to ensure that sustainable jobs are created and we get the best long term return from expenditure under the plan.
Employment forecasts are sensitive to the situation in Europe and in the countries with which we trade, as well as to the competitiveness of our goods and services and changes in exchange rates. We will do the best we can at home to ensure that we get the best value in long term job creation.