I think this is the first time in the history of the Dáil that we find ourselves in this situation — seeking another adjournment of the Dáil, not having a Government and not having a general election either. On the occasion of recent general elections, we had a three week run-in during the campaign and then we settled down to sort out what combination of parties would agree to make up a Government.
Recent experience indicates that it can take up to six weeks for that process to take place.
There are good reasons to believe that on this occasion we will be able to conclude our discussions and form a Partnership Government within a three week span. If we can continue our wide-ranging discussions in the same business-like way we have already done, and in which all parties have participated, then I would be reasonably sanguine that we could conclude our deliberations over the week-end. The House will be aware that the leader of the Labour Party, Deputy Spring, and I have exchanged position papers which set out our respective views on the basis for a new Partnership Government. I received the Labour Party document yesterday and I have included my responses in the Fianna Fáil paper. I expect that Deputy Spring and I will shortly meet again, when he has had time to read and reflect on its content. I know the public would wish to see an agreed Government back in action without wasting a single day and, on behalf of Fianna Fáil, I assure the House that we will do our utmost to expedite that process.
Upon my election as Leader of the Fianna Fáil Party, I requested my colleagues to take soundings among their constituents and within the ranks of the ordinary members of the party. They reported their findings to me in the middle of last week at the meeting of the parliamentary party and at the National Executive. Even before we became aware that we might possibly be part of a new Partnership Government we had begun to work on a draft discussion document which outlined our concerns about recent dramatic events in this House.
We are of one mind in Fianna Fáil that the examination of the operations of the Attorney General's office, initiated by the Taoiseach, and which has been undertaken by the Secretary to the Government, Mr. Frank Murray, the Secretary for the Public Service in the Department of Finance, Mr. John Hurley, and Mr. Tim Dalton, Secretary, Department of Justice, will be concluded as soon as possible and that any recommendations they make with regard to the office will be implemented without undue delay on our part if we are in Government.
I have spoken at length inside and outside this House on the issue of accountability, openness and accessibility to information by the public. I have proposed that we review the operations and implications of the Government and Secretaries Act, 1924, as well as the ramifications of Cabinet procedures and ministerial responsibility. The entire area where the needs of the public and the policies of bureaucrats interface is one of great concern to the public and while we can be proud of the vitality and robustness of all our democratic institutions we must in these times, and for this generation, question the relevance of the operational structures of those institutions and the difficulties the public has in their direct dealings with them.
Major changes must be made in those systems and I am determined that the public will get the service it deserves and wants. That is just one area we are considering in detail in our proposals.
As I already explained, there have been initial discussions between ourselves and the Labour Party in which we are endeavouring to tease out the matters and concerns that we have in common.
There are major decisions to be made in the very near future with regard to the framework document and the consolidation of the peace in Northern Ireland. Final preparations must be made for the European Council meeting in Essen which will concentrate on growth, competitiveness and employment, which are so vital to this country. Major budgetary strategies have to be put in train and key Government decisions must be taken on a whole range of issues. The management of the country's affairs must be given the precedence they demand as soon as formal agreements are reached, and I know the House will agree that there is no time to spare.
I wish to say a few words about the peace process and the work of the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation, work so ably begun and developed by the Taoiseach, Deputy Reynolds, and the former Tánaiste, Deputy Spring. One encouraging feature of our recent political uphevals has been the commitment shown by all parties in this House to the continuation of the Northern Ireland peace process. Whatever differences there may be between us, I am certain that we all appreciate the enormous value of what has been achieved in recent months in bringing an end to paramilitary violence. I sense a growing appreciation of the potential that a peaceful Ireland holds for all who live on this island. The work of the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation has a vital part to play in ensuring that this potential is realised. It is particularly encouraging that the work of the forum has gone ahead without interruption in the last three weeks, with very high levels of participation by the delegations of all the parties.
The forum's strength is that it brings together an unprecedented range of Irish political opinion from North and South. All ten parties who participate in the forum are committed to working together to resolve problems, by exclusively democratic and political means. This is a welcome advance on the reign of violence that prevailed for so long in Northern Ireland.
The aim of the forum is to examine ways in which lasting peace and reconciliation can be established by agreement among all the people of Ireland. Having attended all four meetings of the forum, I believe that it has made an encouraging beginning, which augurs well for the progress of its work in the months ahead. Although it is early days yet, the forum has agreed a wide-ranging work programme up to the end of February, which will enable it to get to grips with all the key issues. The parties are currently presenting their ideas on the nature of the problem underlying the conflict, and the principles for its resolution. Fianna Fáil has already presented its paper and participated in a useful exchange of views with other parties.
In mid-December, the forum will hold major hearings on the economic consequences of peace. As Minister for Finance, I have been acutely aware of how much potential there is for developing the economy of this island, especially as economic recovery gathers pace within the European Union, and I am glad to see the forum focusing on this as one of its early priorities.
As leader of Fianna Fáil, I hope that the spirit of realism and co-operation displayed during the early stages of the forum's work, will lead to substantial progress in removing barriers to lasting peace and reconciliation.
Recent opinion polls show quite clearly that furthering the peace process and the maintenance of a sound and growing economy are major preoccupations with the general public. There is a natural logic in these priorities. If we have managed to achieve notable growth here, against a background of violence in the North, surely we can expect to greatly enhance prosperity, North and South, in a time of peace.
Economic prospects have seldom looked brighter. The international economy is picking up apace. The world is becoming freer and more accessible for Irish business — not least through the integration and enlargement of the European Union. Policies based on social partnership are securing our competitiveness. Budgetary policies are building confidence in Ireland. Domestic investment, assisted by Community resources, is helping to enhance our infrastructure, to upgrade the skills and productivity of our workers and to break the cycle of decline in areas most affected by long term unemployment.
As the House will be aware, the recent performance of our economy puts us close to the top of the league in terms of high growth and low inflation. While most other industrialised countries experienced losses in output and employment in the recent recession, this economy continued to grow — albeit at a slower pace — and private sector employment outside agriculture continued to expand.
Recent indicators show that domestic demand is growing strongly. Already this year, retail sales volumes over the first nine months have grown by over 6 per cent year-on-year. New car sales have been particularly buoyant: registrations look to be up by about 26 per cent to end-October. For the year as whole, the volume of total consumer spending should rise by 4.5 per cent. An improvement in business confidence, combined with relatively low interest rates and increased public capital spending, is leading to a marked recovery in investment. Manufacturing output over the period to end-July is 10 per cent above last year's levels, pointing to continued, substantial expansion of exports.
Overall, GNP growth should be well above 5 per cent this year. At the same time inflation remains moderate, with consumer prices likely to be just 2.5 per cent higher this year than in 1993.
The more balanced composition of growth is leading to accelerated employment gains. The latest labour force survery figures show a net increase of 30,000 jobs in the year to April last. Thankfully, a clear pattern of decline in registered unemployment has accompanied this strong performance on jobs. For the year as a whole unemployment is likely to be 10,000 or more below last year's level. Despite this progress, unemployment remains our most serious economic and social problem. It, therefore, remains at the very top of this Government's agenda and we should take heart from recent progress and tentative figures. Our recent success demonstrates that, as world conditions improve, current policies will increasingly cut into, and further reduce, unemployment.
The overall fiscal position is satisfactory. The EBR has been well under 3 per cent of GNP each year since 1988. The substantial improvement in this respect which we secured in the second half of the 80s is being maintained. The General Government Deficit — established in the Maastricht Treaty as a primary measurement of budgetary performance — has not exceeded 2.3 per cent of GDP in the same period. Our debt burden is also falling significantly. The General Government Debt/GDP ratio was brought down from 116 per cent in 1987 to 96 per cent last year, despite the effect of the IR£ devaluation. Overall, our performance has secured the positive recognition of our fellow EU member states. Deputies will be aware of the EU judgement that only ourselves and Luxembourg currently meet the criteria for participation in the final stage of economic and monetary union.
I am fully committed to low annual deficits. I expect the Exchequer outturn to be below the budget target again this year, reflecting the importance I place on keeping the public finances under tight control. This is a crucial aspect of our ongoing solid economic performance. It is a key determinant of overseas confidence in Ireland. It is also a significant factor of Irish interest rates — which, as we all know to our benefit, are now more closely aligned with international rates than in the past.
Substantial economic growth has enabled the reduction of annual borrowing and our debt burden and major improvement in public services, without resort to a higher tax burden. More important, excluding the tax amnesty proceeds, taxes on personal incomes as a share of GNP will be a good deal lower this year than when we had an EBR of almost 10 per cent. However, because our national debt is still very high, debt service costs pre-empt a big proportion of national resources. I want to free up those resources, to enable further easing of taxes. To do that, we have to keep the annual deficit low. As recent progress demonstrates, this helps economic growth and is, therefore, a key avenue to rising employment, improving services and living standards and reducing unemployment.
We have quite rightly become accustomed to looking at our economic and social progress in a broader European context. Indeed many of our problems are shared to a greater or lesser extent by our partners in the European Union. It is appropriate that these problems are now being addressed collectively by our partners at European Union level and by my colleagues in the ECOFIN Council. Unemployment is one such problem.
As Minister for Finance, I made it a priority to keep employment at the top of the ECOFIN and the European Social Affairs agenda. As part of the follow-up to the White Paper on growth competitiveness and employment, ECOFIN Ministers at recent meetings have held a wide ranging debate on the employment situation. Following the Council's exchange of views on this issue, the Presidency has prepared, for the next meeting on 5 December, draft conclusions of the ECOFIN Council for the European Council in Essen on 9-10 December. Finance Ministers will attend the Essen Summit to participate in the European Council's deliberations on this crucial topic.
Growth prospects in Europe will be 3 per cent next year. This upturn on its own will not solve the unemployment problem, and the Council must emphasis the need for action to tackle structural problems in the labour market of member states. This message should form a central part of the conclusions to be presented by ECOFIN to the Essen Council on 9-10 December.
On Monday next the ECOFIN Council will return to the subject of employment in preparation for the European Council which takes place the following weekend. The ECOFIN will have before it a number of other important issues: adjustment of the budgetary framework in the context of enlargement of the European Union, and for provision of additional funds in connection with the Northern Ireland peace process — which will also be considered by the Essen Summit: progress reports on a number of taxation issues which have been reflected on during the past 12 months; proposals for financial aid to a number of third countries and a report on financing of Trans-European Networks (TENS).
In January 1995, Austria, Finland and Sweden will join the European Union. It is clear that the Union will be strengthened by the addition of the three new members. Now we must begin to look at the next stage which will focus on the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States.
At the ECOFIN in November and at the General Affairs Council of Foreign Ministers there was an exchange of views on certain financial aspects of relations with Associated Central and Eastern European countries in preparation for the Essen European Council. Following the Council, Finance Ministers from these countries and the Baltic States met their EU counterparts for discussions on how co-operation can grow. It is clear that the issues concerning further enlargement of the Union will feature prominently on the EU agenda in coming years.
I have set out today, for the benefit of the House, the matters of concern to me, and my party, and I am sure to every party in the House, and the public generally. I hope that formal discussions can now proceed and that with goodwill all round we will soon have a Government to deal with those issues at the various Council meetings next week and with the agenda that lies ahead.
