Vol. 477 No. 6
5 Dr. Woods asked the Minister for Social Welfare the revised estimate by his Department for the number of unemployed people for the year 1997; the revised cost of unemployment payments; his views on whether this is a realistic projection; the new measures, if any, he is taking to ensure this figure is achieved; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [9913/97]
The 1997 revised estimate for unemployment payments provides for an average live register of 255,000. The total money provision for unemployment payments in the Revised Estimates volume is £960.7 million. This covers payments to all persons on the live register and to certain other unemployed categories of persons such as smallholders and short-time workers. It also covers the cost of the significant improvement in payment rates provided for in this year's budget.
The indications at this early stage are that the provisions made for unemployment payments are adequate. Latest expenditure returns and the live register figures at the end of March are both in line with expectations. The downward trend in the live register, for which this Government is responsible, is continuing and the indications are that it will be maintained. For example, preliminary statistics for April show that there has so far been a further 4,000 drop in the number of people on the live register.
This is due to a combination of factors. First, the ongoing strong growth in the economy which is enhancing job creation, is being translated into reductions in the live register. Second, the transformation of the social welfare system which supports people moving from unemployment into employment and the range of other work supportive programmes and measures which have been introduced have encouraged and motivated the unemployed to return to the active labour force. Finally the intensive and comprehensive programme of measures which I have put in place to reduce the level of fraud and abuse in the system is having a significant effect.
A number of specific positive measures were announced in this year's budget designed to encourage the unemployed to get back to work. These include an increase of 5,000 — to a maximum of 22,000 — in the number who can participate in the back to work allowance scheme and the provision of an additional 3,500 places on community employment projects for unemployed people. Since last August the number of participants in the back to work allowance scheme has increased by 4,000 to just over 17,000 at present.
I have a team of 30 jobs facilitators in place in my Department's ten regions and they are responsible for ensuring that the unemployed and employers are fully aware of the Department's pro-employment, educational and training programmes at local level. They also have a significant part to play in assessing the needs of the unemployed, supporting them in seeking job opportunities, informing and directing them towards the wide range of existing initiatives and options provided by various Government Departments, agencies, voluntary bodies and community groups.
The programme of measures I introduced to tackle fraud and abuse in the unemployment payment system has contributed to the significant drop of over 25,000 in numbers of people on the live register. Features of this comprehensive programme include a claims review exercise under which the continuing entitlement of all customers in receipt of a payment is being examined, a review of entitlement after six months duration on the live register, the youth progression measures introduced in last year's budget and an enhanced publicity campaign which is currently under way to promote and encourage registrants to avail of the variety of work supports available.
I am fully confident that the existing measures to help unemployed people get back to work together with the excellent job creation prospects which currently prevail will result in an average live register of 255,000 being achieved for 1997.
How many long-term unemployed people are included in the estimate of 255,000 for this year? What is the current figure per 1,000 which is used in the calculation of the £916 million? Is it £3.6 million or £3.8 million?
Is the Minister aware that in 1995 the Government's estimate of the number of unemployed was an average of 266,000 for social welfare purposes and the outturn at the end of that year was 279,000? The Government's estimate the next year was 275,000, which became 279,000. Currently, with an outturn of 279,000, the Government is setting an estimate of 255,000. The Minister is confident that reduction can be achieved, despite the fact that last year, the number increased, notwithstanding media statements. The outturn at the end of the year showed an increase against the estimate of 4,200 on average per week every week. In other words, there were an extra 4,200 people unemployed every week on the register during 1996 over the Government estimate of 275,000.
In these circumstances, does the Minister believe the weekly average of 20,000 now being estimated is a real estimate? It has been increased to an average of 24,000 per week for every week. The base for that average must be running at 265,000, if one takes the end of month figures. What is the saving on that 24,000 against last year's outturn?
I do not have the figure for the long-term unemployed. However, the information is available to the Deputy in the Library, or, if he wishes to write to me or table a parliamentary question, I will give him that information.
Will the Minister arrange to send that information to both spokespersons afterwards?
I can, but it would save the State a lot of money if the Deputy simply went to the Library.
The Minister has made a change and altered the figure to 255,000.
Does the Deputy have another question?
Yes, but I am waiting for the answer to my first question. The Minister said to look in the Library but that information is not there.
There are only four minutes left and I must call Deputy Quill for the next question.
If Deputy Woods and Deputy Quill require the information, I will have the Civil Service examine the statistical breakdown from the Central Statistics Office and provide them with it. However, those civil servants' time might be better spent on other business if Deputy Woods went to the Library.
This information is not in the Library.
It will have the statistical breakdown for the long-term unemployed.
I do not want that information. I want the Minister's figure.
The Minister asked for the figure used for the cost. The rule of thumb figure is £3.5 million but if the Deputy divides the figure of 255,000 into the estimated cost, which is £960 million, the estimated cost per 1,000 is found.
There are, of course, significant numbers of people on the live register who receive no payment and, as a result, it is not entirely accurate to say that every 1,000 taken off the live register means a saving of £3.5 million or more. If one takes that figure of £3.5 million as a rule of thumb and multiply it by 24,000, one sees what the saving is currently.
It is £84 million.
It is £75 million plus £12.5 million, which is £87.5 million saved as a result of the excellent work being done by the Department of Social Welfare and the Government's creation of an average of 1,000 new jobs per week.
The Minister has given a new figure. Will he not give us the breakdown for that figure?
