On behalf of NOW Ireland, I thank the members of the Oireachtas committee for inviting us to attend. We have given members a hard copy of our presentation. If they wish, they can make notes and refer to them later.
NOW Ireland is a representative body for all the enterprises involved in developing offshore wind energy projects in Irish coastal waters. They include Airtricity, Codling Windfarm, Saorgus, Oriel Windfarm and Fuinneamh Sceirde Teo. These companies are poised to make an investment in excess of €4 billion to develop the offshore wind energy sector in Ireland. Offshore wind energy projects are fundamental to Ireland achieving its medium-term and long-term energy and climate change objectives. In the short term onshore wind energy projects will help us to achieve the targets set for 2012. However, in the longer term more exacting targets will require the deployment of renewable capacity best met through the scale of projects offered by Ireland's offshore wind eneregy project developers.
Ireland has some of the world's best resources and can harness wind offshore to deliver large generation capacity and high load factors. From 2012 onwards, offshore wind energy projects will become a key driver in the Irish energy sector. In the short term a delivery of 2,000 MW is possible. However, the potential offered by Irish waters is much greater than this and we will be seeking to create a climate where Ireland will become the "green energy centre for Europe".
The market for energy, both globally and domestically, has changed in the past decade. The issues that shape energy policy have altered to such a degree that the solutions and policies of yesterday are now of little value. NOW Ireland welcomes the establishment of the Oireachtas committee and views its deliberations and output as critically important to the provision of the policies that will help us to meet our energy needs.
The current discussion is based on three basic challenges: achieving long-term security of supply of energy; maintaining and, if possible, enhancing our economic position relative to other nations; meeting our international obligations under treaties and, perhaps more importantly, our moral imperative to address climate change. In terms of security of supply, as members are aware, Ireland has the highest dependency on imported fossil fuels for generation in the European Union. International studies have repeatedly highlighted the precarious nature of Ireland's energy dependency on imported oil, fuel and gas. Such a dependency may have been economically sustainable in the 1980s and 1990s. Now, however, it represents short-term thinking and a failure to understand the challenges we face both as a nation and as an economy. Oil prices have risen sixfold since 2002, by 125% since February 2007 and 25% in the past four months. We should not kid ourselves that these are blips and that all will return to normal in the years ahead. In recent weeks Goldman Sachs analyist, Argus Muti, has predicted a rise in oil prices to $200 per barrel within the next six months to two years as being increasingly likely. This suggestion - laughable only a few years ago - was given added credibility by Tullow Oil's Tom Hickey who claimed the figure was a strong possibility.
Ireland is a price taker when it comes to oil, gas and coal. Because of our generation mix and geographical position removed from oil and gas producers, we will be forced to pay a heavy price if we do not act now to change our mindset.
On competitiveness, while we seek to make this change, it is critical that we do so in a way that enhances our competitiveness and creates economic opportunity. Opponents of renewable energy have often used this as an argument on which to oppose the deployment of renewables. This argument holds no water and indeed threatens the opportunity for us to develop an important new sector for the economy. Not only can renewable energy reduce energy prices, it can also be a catalyst for growth.
We need to frame our energy policy in relation to our international obligations. The challenges that have been set in terms of climate change targets provide an impetus not only to Ireland, but to all nations, to address energy priorities. Ireland has been set the target of achieving 15% generation from renewable energy by 2012 and 33% by 2020. It is becoming clear that the 2012 target can be achieved, largely through the deployment of onshore wind. This year will see us reach the milestone of 1,000 MW of energy from that source. It is less clear, however, how we are to achieve our 2020 targets. Achieving them will require a substantial increase in generating capacity. From 2012 onwards, this can best be achieved through deployment of offshore wind energy.
The 1,000 MW of onshore wind energy that has been achieved to date has required the development of hundreds of small wind farm projects around the country. The five operators represented in NOW Ireland have the capacity to deliver over 2,000 MW from just five offshore projects. That would represent nearly 40% of our current national generating requirement, powering 1.5 million homes. Some 2,000 MW of offshore wind energy will remove the equivalent of approximately 3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the economy annually. It will significantly reduce the amount likely to be paid out in carbon credits, which is estimated to be between €170 million and €530 million annually for Ireland based on current and recommended UN fines. It will help to insulate Ireland from the costs of full auctioning in the emissions trading scheme from 2013 onwards.
Capacity of 2,000 MW represents the return from existing and pending lease areas. The Irish waters offer potential for far greater returns in the years ahead. We believe that, within easily accessible waters in the Irish Sea and Celtic Sea, there is in excess of 5,000 MW available, with the Atlantic Ocean offering even greater potential as construction technology improves. Offshore wind enjoys a number of competitive advantages which allow it achieve these greater returns. Wind is stronger and more consistent offshore than it is onshore. This ensures a larger generating capacity and a more reliable supply of energy. Offshore wind enjoys a load factor advantage over onshore wind of between 40% to 45%.
A new breed of wind turbines, specifically designed for offshore conditions, has the potential to allow for generation of over 6 MW per turbine. These machines are likely to come on stream from 2012, the time at which we believe Ireland's offshore projects will be rolled out. To put this in context, a single turbine of this size will produce the energy of four onshore turbines or ten marine generators. This scale advantage means that we can make more efficient use of our natural resources, while using the minimum necessary deployment of machinery.
This phase of development, beginning around 2012, holds the key to delivering Ireland's 2020 renewable energy target. Given the right support and a change in mindset, NOW Ireland is convinced a target of 10 GW of renewable energy should be set, 4,000 MW of which will come from offshore wind energy. Ireland will not only be meeting its own green energy targets but will be playing a key role in meeting the targets for the European Union, as suggested by Commissioner Piebalgs, while also providing a substantial boost to our own economy.
How do we get to this promised land and achieve these goals, which effectively represent a tenfold increase on our current performance? To date, a number of factors have stunted the development of offshore wind energy projects in Ireland. Before we move forward, we must understand and address these barriers to development. They include industry-wide issues, policy issues including pricing and planning, and grid infrastructure and interconnection.
The first and perhaps best known of the constraints has been the availability of turbines large enough to take full advantage of the opportunities that offshore wind provides. Turbine manufacturers have concentrated their efforts on producing turbines to meet the requirements of the global onshore market. Only now are we seeing the investment in research and development which will deliver offshore turbines of 6 MW plus.
Another challenge we have faced and will continue to face is the difficulty of constructing at sea and the availability of human resources and machinery to do so. We face supply-chain constraints and this is an issue we must address as an industry. However, companies are smart and, if there is a market, suppliers will come on board to deliver for that market. These constraints are global and have been experienced in all countries that have begun the process of developing offshore wind energy projects.
With regard to uniquely Irish features, the lack of a guaranteed pricing structure for offshore wind was for many years a disincentive to investment in this sector. To this end, we welcome the Minister's announcement of a renewable energy feed-in tariff scheme for offshore wind. We have already noted increased interest in the sector since this announcement. While there is much still to be discussed regarding how this scheme will operate, NOW Ireland looks forward to working with the Department to create a system that will ensure investment for the benefit of both the sector and the State.
While there has been movement on pricing, the same cannot be said about planning. Ireland already has the most rigorous permitting system in Europe. There has been some suggestion that the permitting system is to change in the near future. NOW Ireland would welcome such change. Any new licensing system must offer greater clarity, with clearly defined timelines, and greater certainty than currently obtains for the level of investment required in offshore projects. We deserve a system that addresses the needs of citizens while meeting the requirement of developing a real energy alternative in the most practicable manner. To achieve this will require joined-up thinking between Departments.
On the question of infrastructure, grid connection remains the most serious barrier to the development of renewable energy in Ireland. Members will be aware from their meetings with onshore operators that serious concerns have been raised over delays to grid connection. The challenge of grid connection facing offshore operators is no less serious. NOW Ireland contends this is a critical issue that must be addressed in the coming year. We need a grid design that offers the maximum flexibility to generators and that also offers as great and robust a level of interconnection as possible with our neighbours in the United Kingdom and Europe.
It has been heartening to note from recent discussions with the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources that these points are being taken on board. Furthermore, it is heartening to see that the needs of offshore wind developers are now being treated as distinct and not merely a bolt-on to the onshore market. Given the location, the construction technologies required and the capacity that can be delivered from offshore wind, offshore projects have different grid needs to onshore projects. Offshore projects also offer different potential. For example, the Codling Bank project alone can deliver 1,100 MW. The differences are such that the offshore operators, as a group, are likely to seek to be treated separately from the Gate 3 process.
The current "gate" system is designed to accommodate a large volume of small, interacting wind projects seeking connection that are not seen as dispatchable. There is a large volume of projects in the queue seeking connection. However, offshore wind projects do not fit the definition of projects the "gate" system is designed to manage. Offshore projects are large and discrete; they each generate a large swathe of power. Eirgrid has defined large-scale wind projects as "partially dispatchable". If we are to solve the grid conundrum, it must be in a targeted way, not one that assumes all renewable types are the same.
A grid and network that supports renewable energy is by its nature a flexible one. Our generation mix is not conducive to deployment of renewable levels necessary to meet our 2020 targets. If we are serious about attaining our renewable targets, we need to create an over-arching energy infrastructure to deliver them.
The other key element of the infrastructure mix will be the investment in interconnection. This is where the real opportunity lies to benefit from renewable technology. Through interconnection we have the potential to move from energy dependency to being part of a trans-European energy market, whereby we can sell energy into an international grid. To achieve this, we need a change of mindset and to learn lessons from the past. We need to understand the full potential of our resources. With serious investment in interconnection, Ireland can become a European energy power. I ask members who believe this is a pipe dream to consider the development of the oil and gas industry in the United Kingdom, Norway and the Gulf of Mexico in the 1970s. Major constraints were faced up to as these regions developed their energy resources at a time when middle-eastern oil and gas became too expensive and insecure. The result in each case was a massive economic return for those countries. Necessity was the mother of invention.
Interconnection must be central to our thinking. I welcome the announcement by the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, Deputy Ryan, that he wishes to pursue a feasibility study on Ireland's interconnection links with its neighbours. This would, if it occurred, be the first link in a Celtic grid. We should not stop there.
A north-south grid in the Irish Sea should be considered. Our counterparts in Norway are already seeking to interconnect to Scotland. The goal of a European grid is attainable and it is essential. The re-establishing of the renewable energy development group by the Minister, with offshore represented for the first time, is to be welcomed. We trust through the consequent public private partnership that practicality and foresight will be brought to bear on grid and interconnection.
We also welcome the announcement by Science Foundation of Ireland that renewable energy will join information technology and pharmaceuticals as key strategic areas in which research and development will be supported. This is a massive boost for our sector. Ireland can become a world leader in energy research and the work being undertaken in Dundalk Institute of Technology provides an important first step in this direction.
Other countries are already taking a lead in developing not only offshore wind energy but investing in the research and development capability needed to support this growing industry. In the Emden-Ost industrial region in northern Germany, six towns are actively developing their potential to manufacture wind turbines and develop related support enterprises. The aim is not just to develop a local and renewable energy source but also to create a cluster, a centre of excellence, which will drive further economic growth.
Up to 150,000 jobs have already been created across the EU in the wind energy industry, 80,000 jobs in Germany, including 11,000 in Emden-Ost. The EWEA forecast is that 400,000 jobs will have been created across the EU by 2030. Food for thought at a time when Ireland's construction industry is in decline.
The potential economic returns are proven. The Stern report highlights that economic activity directed at averting climate change will develop into a multi-billion euro industry. Taking the example of Germany, the German enterprise minister recently indicated that in the short to medium term, people employed in the energy sector will exceed those employed in the German automobile industry. This is not an aspiration.
A cost benefit analysis of the German renewable energy incentive scheme carried out by the Feuerhof Institute has demonstrated that the investment in renewable energy infrastructure and support for the development of their industry has netted the German economy approximately €9 billion. A €5 billion return on a €4 billion investment. NOW Ireland has commissioned Indecon to carry out a similar cost benefit analysis for Ireland. The results of this study will be shared with the renewable energy development group.
The following benefits in savings have been calculated as a consequence of the German renewable energy Act: costs of the renewable energy Act and additional costs of feed in tariffs, €3.5 billion; direct savings, €4.3 billion; and electricity price savings due to the merit-order-effect, between €3 billion and €5 billion. The total return on renewables investment is between €7.3 billion and €9.3 billion, a net benefit of €3.5 billion to €5.5 billion.
Other countries such as Scotland, Denmark and Norway are pushing hard to become the European centres for offshore wind power. Scotland and Germany are pushing this agenda because they see the economic opportunity. Ireland needs to seize that opportunity. We could deliver in a cluster of ports, similar to those in Emden-Ost, stretching from Harland and Wolff in Belfast to Rosslare, a network of enterprises delivering the turbines and equipment and then servicing the offshore network in the Irish Sea and beyond.
Foreign direct investment, is rapidly becoming "Found Something Cheaper". We can no longer depend on other countries to provide the majority of our jobs and our earnings. In a recent market outlook statement, Friends First economist, Mr. Jim Power, indicated Ireland will come under further pressure with job losses in the multinational sector. Successful companies and economies are founded on the ability to be flexible, to see opportunities and to seize them. Successful companies look at a market and realise that it is not static and that in the changes which occur there is the potential for greatness. Ireland Inc. needs to think in this way.
The energy market has changed and we have the natural resources to compete. Ireland has some of the best wind resources in the world. In this changed energy environment, Ireland has the chance to look to its natural resources, to develop them and to become a world leader. We cannot afford to get locked into an outmoded view of the Irish energy market.
Ireland has traditionally been dependent on other countries for our energy with 90% imported. Due to this we find it hard to think of ourselves as being energy rich. We find it hard to understand the full potential of what we can achieve in terms of energy. However, Ireland has successfully capitalised on its natural resources, tourism and food. I have some experience in both of these sectors.
We have developed our natural resources in the agricultural sector to a level where we are able to punch well above our weight and have become world players. Similarly in tourism, how many countries actually attract more visitors than their total population? Ireland does well when it plays to its strengths. Our resources of wind, both offshore and onshore, place us in a position where we can meet not only our own energy needs, but can contribute to the needs of our European neighbours.
The process of starting this offshore sector will require investment. It is an investment worth taking. Opponents of renewable energy talk of subsidies, of costs about competitiveness as if the development of a secure and indigenous energy resource is likely to harm the economy. That is a myth. According to UN figures from 2007, subsidies to solid fuels, oil and gas in the EU outstrip those to renewables by a factor of four to one. Governments are allowing a situation whereby instead of investing in our future energy security, they are supporting industries in decline and options that cannot provide the answers to our needs.
Investment in renewables works. The net effect of investing in wind power has been shown, both in Ireland and overseas, to reduce the overall cost of electricity to consumers. Onshore wind energy projects in Ireland are already subsidising the Irish consumers' electricity bill. Offshore projects have the potential to do the same and at a far higher level of generating capacity.
This is a new era and the policies of supporting the old solutions will not work. If we are to build for a new energy reality, our infrastructural investment must reflect this. We must work in partnership, Government and industry, to plan a grid which recognises the reality of a world where we cannot rely on oil and gas. Building for the future is not subsidy, it is investment. Joined-up thinking is needed. We need the infrastructure to deliver the potential of our invaluable wind resource and put it up to the private sector to deliver capacity. It worked for oil and gas in the 1970s and will work for wind. If industry, in partnership with the Government and State agencies, can overcome the barriers to development, if we can shift our mindset from that of energy dependence to that of energy opportunity and if we can take full advantage of our natural resources, then we can achieve our renewable energy goals. Offshore wind energy projects have the capacity to deliver not only our targets for climate change and renewable energy but also to be a driver for economic growth. We have the potential to deliver capacity not just for Ireland but for Europe.