Perhaps I might give a brief outline of where we stand regarding ratification, a series of seminars that we are running in the institute bringing in representatives of member states to discuss their views on it, and an overview of what the institute proposes to do from now on. I preface my remarks by saying that our mission in the institute is to think as deeply as we can on such issues, analyse what is going on and make that information available to anyone who feels that it might be useful. We would always be delighted to hear from the committee or individual members on any aspect of our work.
So far, three states have ratified the treaty. The first was Lithuania, followed by Hungary and Slovenia. It is significant that the first three states to ratify the treaty are new members and that the very first to do so was one of the smaller ones. As it happens, we had the Lithuanian Foreign Minister among the speakers at our seminar last Friday. He was joined by the Deputy Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, Mr. Pál Csáky, and Mr. Vladimir Müller who is Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic. Our own Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Deputy Noel Treacy, was also there. He made it clear that he wishes to participate in all our seminars. That kind of participation we find very valuable.
I will give a brief résumé of the main points made by the speakers at that seminar. The Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia made the point that the constitutional treaty was a natural, important and logical next step in building Europe. In particular, he insisted that the treaty was not the foundation of any kind of European super state. On the contrary, it seemed to him that the treaty allowed respect for and development of the multicultural heritage of individual member states. He pointed out that there is concern in the new member states that they be regarded as equal partners in the enlarged European Union. He particularly stressed the fact that the history of his own state and that of the other new member states, apart from Malta and Cyprus, under communism did not in any way detract from their European identity. Each of the three speakers made the point, frequently overlooked here, that all those new member states have a substantial history, both political and cultural, and have a great deal to offer such discourse in the enlarged European Union. The Deputy Prime Minister's country has endured a totalitarian regime, and for him the European Union constitutes a unique and different route.
The Deputy Prime Minister believes that the institutional changes in the constitutional treaty are vital to allow the enlarged Union to function satisfactorily. Echoing a view that we have taken ourselves in the institute, he made the point that the constitutional treaty as it now stands, adapted to deal with the governmental needs of 27 member states, including the current applicant states, Bulgaria and Romania, can probably also deal with Croatia. There is further work to be done in the Balkans, and Turkey is a candidate. If we reach the point where all those countries have resolved the issues concerned, I believe it will be necessary to re-examine the treaty. However, it is essential to point out now that the issue is one for a future date rather than today. This current constitutional treaty does not attempt to deal with that.
The Foreign Minister of Lithuania, Mr. Valionis, made the point that in his country the treaty debate overlapped with the negotiations for accession. In Lithuania the two were seen to be very much inseparable. That was one of the reasons they proceeded so quickly to ratification. He is proud of the fact, quite rightly, that Lithuania is the first state to have ratified the treaty. In his view both accession to the Union and the constitutional treaty consolidate democracy and sovereignty while putting them into a broader European context. He used one phrase which a number of people at the seminar found quite striking. He regarded the EU as a valuable Union "that can accommodate the big member states and protect the small member states". He laid some emphasis on what he regarded as the importance of the fact that the constitutional treaty facilitates a greater consolidation of the European Union's action in the sphere of foreign policy, where he said "we have little to lose and much to gain". He pointed out in particular that the European Union had been in a position to play a substantial role recently in Ukraine. He also looked forward to the provision in the constitution for teamed Presidencies which will see Lithuania partnering Greece and Ireland in the Presidency of the Union from 1 January 2013 to the end of June 2014, assuming these changes come into effect.
The Czech Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs again made the point that this constitutional treaty, in his view, puts the seal on the work done in the new member states to put the political and economic realities of the past behind them and to participate in a new remade European Union. Opinion in the Czech Republic is divided on this issue. There were some familiar echoes in what he had to say. There are those who believe that sovereignty shared is sovereignty surrendered. On the other hand, there are others who believe that sovereignty shared is sovereignty gained within the European Union. The template the Czech Government is using to assess this treaty really has to do with the question of whether it delivers a stable legal space for a dynamic but predictable development of the Union. The Czech consensus is that it does. The government takes the view that participation in the Union for citizens of the Czech Republic is a means of extending rather than limiting their rights and that the sharing of sovereignty extends their rights. That is a brief overview of the presentations at that seminar.
We were addressed by the Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Deputy Treacy. I will not take the liberty of paraphrasing his views here which are well known to the committee. The next seminar will take place on 2 March. We will have the Spanish Minister for European Affairs and it will be interesting to hear what he has to say because Spain will hold its referendum on the treaty on 20 February. We will have the Spanish Minister for European Affairs hot from the hustings, so to speak. He will be joined by the Maltese Foreign Minister, Dr. Michael Frendo, the Greek Minister of State for European Affairs and our own Minister of State, Deputy Treacy.
We plan to complete that series of seminars by the middle of the year, by which time we will have had the opportunity to get an overview from all the member states as to where they stand as regards the treaty. As the committee knows, we published an analysis of the treaty last October. It was presented to the committee some time ago by Dr. Garret FitzGerald. We are now preparing a series of eight shorter publications dealing with particular parts of the treaty. One of them will deal with institutional relations. That will focus on changes in the voting arrangements, Council configurations, the role of the Presidency, including the Presidency of the European Council, the Commission, and the EU Minister for Foreign Affairs and Enhanced Co-operation.
Another one will deal with the issue of the primacy of EU law and will be looking at the significance of that in the constitution as well as issues of sovereignty and transfer of competence and will examine the question of whether the constitutional treaty alters the status quo in any way. Another will deal with the Charter of Fundamental Rights, examining its significance and that of its horizontal clauses as well as issues that may arise in the context of whatever instrument is decided on as appropriate for the European Union to accede or participate in the European Convention on Human Rights.
Another one will deal with issues of freedom, security and justice, asylum and immigration, personal data protection and information sharing, mutual recognition in criminal procedures and all the issues surrounding them. On the external relations side, particularly in regard to the new EU neighbourhood, the issues as regards freedom, security and justice are examined. A further one will deal with issues of security and defence in the treaty, how they are dealt with and the structures that have been put in place. We will have a publication on social Europe, examining social provisions in this treaty arising as regards public services, globalisation, privatisation and all those issues. There will be a publication on national parliaments and the democratic life of the Union, issues of parliamentary legitimacy, and the involvement of national parliaments in the work of the Union both in terms of what is provided in the treaty and what national parliaments decide or do not decide to do in their sovereign judgments as regards their involvement in the preparation of European legislation.
These will be short pamphlets in a clear bullet-type style. They will be useful for people who are interested as a guide to what is in the treaty. I would like to take a moment to give the committee a brief view of our analysis of the treaty. I believe there are a couple of matters which are important to bear in mind during the debate, not least that there is no comparator for the European Union anywhere in the world. From the viewpoint of political analysis, that in fact means that any new step the European Union takes is a new adventure. Each step is prepared as carefully as possible in advance. However, each step will ultimately contain some unknown dimension. So far we do not seem to have done anything dreadfully wrong. Matters seem to have worked out quite well. However, it is important to bear in mind in the debate that there is not another body like the EU to which it may be compared. That means comparisons made with other systems are of very limited value. We need to employ empirical political judgments in looking at these issues more than anything else.
It seems to us there are two fundamental questions to be answered when we look at this treaty. The first is whether the European Union with 27 member states will be better governed with this constitutional treaty than it would be if we were to continue with the Treaty of Nice. It was certainly the intention of the Convention and the Intergovernmental Council to bring about that result. Our view is that this is the case and that EU 27 would be better governed by this constitutional treaty than they would be with the Nice treaty. Another important fundamental question is whether governance of the EU within this constitutional treaty will be more open to democratic influences than it would be under the Nice treaty. Again, it seems to us having examined the provisions of this treaty that the answer to that is yes.
There is a rider to that answer, which is that the openness of the system of governance in the EU to democratic influences depends far more on the activity of democratic actors than it does on the institutions of the EU. It seems that there is an open door, but very few democratic institutions in the EU ever bother to look to see whether that door is open. Perhaps that is an issue for another day. From our analysis of the treaty, it will deal with the governance of a 27 member state European Union and it could probably deal with an EU that includes Croatia. After that, there are imponderables about Serbia and Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo, about which we cannot predict. We will be opening negotiations with Turkey during the course of the next year. If all those negotiations come to a fruitful conclusion, it seems inevitable that we would revisit the treaty. All that is quite some distance away and it should not influence the way that we deal with this particular treaty.
The provisions of the treaty on the Presidency of the European Council need to be examined. There will now be a two and a half year Presidency which is renewable for another term, in order that a European Council Presidency with an effective mandate of five years is a possibility. The European Parliament makes its own decisions on how it organises the Presidency, but it seems to have got into the habit of splitting the Presidency into two terms. The European Commission Presidency has a mandate of five years. All this means that the Presidency of the European Council will gain in influence vis-à-vis the other two Presidencies.
The EU Minister for Foreign Affairs is a new institutional development in this treaty. We will have a person who is a Vice-President of the Commission who will bring proposals from the Commission as a college as well as proposals from the Commission acting as a wise body to the Council of Ministers. Where these are matters within the Commission's competence, that person who is bringing the proposals to the Council will also chair the Council and will therefore have to mediate the debate. That person will find herself or himself in the position of reporting back to the Council on what has been done to give effect to decisions in the Council. That person will be pretty busy, but will also have a position of some considerable influence because that person will also be there for five years. That combination of functions is an innovation in the political systems of all our member states and is one that will be an interesting exercise to watch, assuming that the treaty is ratified.
That is a very broad overview of where we seem to be at the moment. In the Institute of European Affairs, we are always ready to participate in debate and examination. Members of this committee are more than welcome to attend our next seminar on the constitutional treaty on 2 March. We are the first institute in the European Union to organise a seminar on the proposed external action service. That service was proposed at this committee and we believe it is quite an innovation in foreign policy activity. That will take place on 17 February at 9.30 a.m. at the Institute of European Affairs. We will be happy to see any or all of the committee members there.