On the policy areas of immigration, accepting refugees and defence, Irish people have a much greater unwillingness to allow such issues to be decided at European level. The bars on the graph represent the Irish and the European averages. A number of other issues are also relevant here, including the fight against drugs, the fight against organised crime and juvenile crime prevention. The data indicates that there are very specific areas where Irish people have reservations about the transfer of power to Brussels. This needs to be addressed by proponents of a "Yes" vote in order to bring the people with them.
So far I have been dealing with people's feelings and attitudes towards various aspects of European integration. However, a fundamental aspect of political culture that is particularly important in countries that hold referendums on European issues, is knowledge. On the knowledge scale graph, where Ireland is blue and the EU 25 maroon, there are two issues marked, both relating to European Parliament elections. The Irish level of knowledge here is above average. However, on the other items on the knowledge scale graph, the Irish are either only at the European average or are significantly below it. For example, only 49% of Irish people gave the correct answer when asked whether it was true or false that the citizens of the EU directly elect the President of the European Commission. This is worth dwelling on because the data was collected in October and November of 2004. In May and June of the same year, a major political debate was ensuing and considerable media attention was given to the issue of whether the Taoiseach might be transferred to Brussels and become President of the European Commission. Despite the debate and media coverage, only half of the Irish people retained the information that the position of President of the Commission is not an elected one.
I think that illustrates a disjuncture between the information that political elites share — the media they read and the attention they give to politics — and the attention that a large segment of the population gives to politics. That particularly applies to European politics but also to politics in general, as I am sure active politicians such as those in attendance today will be aware.
I will now discuss the findings of the most recent poll in this area. Each column represents an EU member state, with succinct abbreviations because it is difficult to fit the names of all 25 member states on a graph. In the Irish case, it is slightly shocking that 28% of people approve of the draft constitution, 5% are opposed but 67% have not made a decision. This reflects the implications of the problem of low levels of knowledge. We will not digress by examining findings in some other member states. In charts displaying the 25 EU member states, Ireland is usually placed alongside countries with favourable attitudes, if that is being measured. However, in this case it is on the other side of the chart alongside the United Kingdom, Sweden, Cyprus, Malta and Estonia. It is not there because of the high levels of opposition in some of the other countries mentioned but because of very high levels of uncertainty.
I now turn to a second set of data on aspects of knowledge, consisting of a quiz that made a series of true or false statements about propositions or elements of the treaty. The results should not be taken literally but as an indication of the extent of people's knowledge of the treaty. I have circled the main contrasts between the Irish figure and the EU average. It is apparent that there is a very substantial discrepancy in the answers to fundamental propositions. On the proposition that national citizenship will disappear, there is a 20% gap between the proportions of European citizens and Irish citizens who answered correctly, which is not a creditable reflection on Irish citizens. Each of the propositions I have circled illustrates the same issue. We have a society with very high levels of approval but distinctly lower than average levels of general knowledge and understanding of the treaty.
This must be qualified by a recognition that a campaign has not yet started. To the best of my knowledge the date for the referendum has not been decided. The chart reveals, however, that when the referendum campaign begins, people will have a very low level of knowledge. As our first referendum on the Nice treaty demonstrated, the major factor in abstentions and in votes against ratifying the treaty was the belief that voters were not adequately informed about the issues.
I have used two surveys to illustrate the relationship between knowledge and attitudes — Eurobarometer 62, which was completed in October and November of last year, and Eurobarometer 62.1, completed in November which contained the specific questions on the constitution. What is striking about the sets of data from the former is the extent to which favourable attitudes towards the EU constitution depend on people's levels of knowledge.
The latter survey illustrates the same pattern in knowledge of the constitution. As knowledge increases favourable attitudes increase, occuring mainly at the expense of the undecideds. It is interesting that opposition also rises alongside increasing levels of knowledge, reflecting that significant numbers in society are very knowledgeable about the EU while opposing it. I am not suggesting that knowledge is the central factor or that, as some people say about the EU, to know it is to love it. That is not necessarily the case in Irish or any other public opinion. However, it is clear that as knowledge increases so does support for the EU in general and support for the treaty. That effect of knowledge on support is substantial, although it might also be said that knowledge increases because of support. Policy-makers and politicians must acknowledge these effects. It is necessary to increase people's knowledge as well as persuade them to vote for or against the treaty.
It is striking that the relationship is similar in these two different measures of knowledge. The demographic of knowledge is another important aspect. Finally to illustrate my point about low levels of knowledge, as the numbers of correct answers to questions on the European constitution increased, the proportion opposed to the constitution saw a corresponding increase. From a "Yes" point of view, knowledge is not an absolute panacea but if one examines the strength of the relationship in the previous one, the degree to which support increases is greater than the degree to which opposition increases as people become more informed. I might stop at this point. I have another of this type of chart which shows the demographic breakdown of knowledge but——