I thank the Chairman for the invitation to attend the meeting to give the joint committee our response to the proposals set out in the Social Justice Ireland report entitled, Building a Fairer Tax System: The Working Poor and the Cost of Refundable Tax Credits, which was published in July. We have provided members with a copy of the presentation which we hope will assist the committee in its discussions. We will be happy to answer any questions the Vice Chairman and members may have.
As the Vice Chairman will be aware, we cannot express a view on the merits or otherwise of Government policy. Therefore, our comments will be confined to what is factual. We can point out to the committee the issues which will need to be considered in any policy decisions to be taken on proposals contained in the SJI report. As members will be aware, the report sets out a scheme for the introduction of refundable tax credits. The scheme would be limited to personal and PAYE tax credits and sets a number of restrictions on the income earners who would be eligible. Using a database derived from the 2006 European Union survey of income and living conditions, the report estimates the cost of the scheme based on the final number of eligible income earners after the application of the restrictions.
I would like to comment briefly on a number of features of the scheme proposed by Social Justice Ireland. It would involve a person making a claim for a refund of unused credits some time after the end of the tax year. Such a refund system could be made to work. The group which examined in 2002 the possible role of refundable tax credits devoted a great deal of time to examining ways such credits could be integrated with the payroll system and concluded that it would be extremely complicated to set up such a system. On the other hand, a refund system could work along the lines of the medical expenses relief scheme, as indicated in the SJI report.
The scheme proposed would involve a number of significant restrictions. The Department accepts that the more restrictions placed on refundable tax credits the fewer the number of persons who would benefit and, consequently, the lower the cost to the Exchequer. However, we would have concerns if the restrictions were arbitrary so as to be unfair. For example, it would be very difficult to maintain the age restrictions. Restricting refunds to those aged 23 years or older, as proposed, could give rise to serious equity issues, although I am not saying they could not be got over. I cite as examples two single mothers, one of whom is over 23 years who would receive a refund and the other under 23 who would not. Under the existing FIS system, there is no such distinction. How could a refundable tax credit system succeed in so doing? That question must be asked.
Granting refunds to those with social security contributions for 40 weeks in the qualifying year could potentially reduce the numbers of beneficiaries. Again, there would be an equity issue between PAYE workers who are recorded as having a contribution only if they are in paid work for a minimum number of weeks, whereas those who are self-employed are recorded as having contributions for a full year unrelated to the number of weeks they work.
There would also be certain disincentives to work. While the report contends that would not be the case, we can see instances where there would be such disincentives. We can give examples if members wish.
The potential cost is crucial, as pointed out in earlier discussions, in the consideration of the policy proposal made. The Department of Finance and the Revenue Commissioners have previously stated to the committee that the cost of a limited refundable tax credit scheme would have been in the region of €3 billion, if introduced in 2009, but the meaning of the word "limited" in this case is that tax credits would be available only to those included in tax records.
The Revenue Commissioners have costed the Social Justice Ireland, SJI, proposal using tax files for 2006, the tax year used in the SJI report. Its calculations used 2.2 million tax cases on the Revenue record for that year and these represent 2.6 million individual income earners. Its calculations show that using the parameters of the SJI scheme and taking the same assumption used by the SJI regarding the number of persons under 23 years of age, the cost is much lower than the figure of €3 billion mentioned earlier but is nonetheless still many times higher than the figure of €140 million estimated in the SJI report. I emphasise that this age criterion is the only assumption required to be made by Revenue. All the other steps in Revenue's calculation are purely factual relating to the tax records for 2006. Revenue's calculations gave a cost of just over €700 million for the SJI scheme.
The cost of any scheme of refundable tax credits would depend on the parameters involved. Restrictions are, by their nature, arbitrary and restrictions proposed by the SJI, which differentiate on the basis of age, income levels and weeks in employment could be difficult to maintain. It is our experience that in the absence of objective grounds to support them, other than only cost reduction, such restrictions come under pressure from the moment they are introduced. Any relaxation of these restrictions inevitably drives up the cost of refundable tax credits and a complete relaxation would give rise to a cost for 2009 of approximately €3 billion and for 2006 the cost, which is comparable, would be €2.1 billion. This cost is without extending the scheme to those who are not on the Revenue record. There was a discussion on that aspect and the identity of those people on the last occasion we appeared before the committee.
The policy makers have to ask themselves what they are trying to achieve by introducing such a scheme, which would be a form of basic income, as espoused by CORI in the past and by the representative of the SJI today. Apart from any cost issue, the key question would be who would benefit, who would lose under such proposals, would the scheme target the resources available best by using the tax system rather than the public expenditure system and which would give the best value for money. That choice is a matter for the Minister and the Government of the day. Any Minister for Finance would be delighted to provide additional help to the working poor who are the subject of the SJI report. However, the questions I mentioned clearly would be to the forefront of his or her deliberations on the matter.
The issue of making tax credits refundable was examined recently by the Commission on Taxation. The report of the commission sets out a case for and a case against such a scheme and concludes as follows:
On balance, we do not recommend a move to refundable tax credits at this stage. If there is not an appropriate level of uptake of the direct expenditure support through measures like Family Income Supplement payments within a five-year period, the question of refundable tax credits should be considered as a policy option to ensure a more equitable distribution of resources.
In summary, our view is that the system proposed by the SJI is one that could be made to operate. There are, however, serious concerns about the arbitrary nature of the restrictions within the scheme and whether these are sustainable or could be regarded as equitable. If they are not equitable, then they would not be viable or practical and the cost of the scheme would increase. There are also concerns about the disincentives to work.
With regard to the costing of the scheme by the Revenue Commissioners using the tax records for 2006, these are the tax records that would be used to make payments to taxpayers under the SJI proposal. The costing shows that the estimate in the SJI report is a substantial under-estimate of the cost involved.
On the two allegations made by the representatives of the SJI concerning the Department of Finance and the Revenue Commissioners, the first allegation is that the costings by the Department and Revenue of making tax credits refundable is "95% wrong". We are not wrong. The cost of such a scheme limited to those on the tax record would be €3 billion in 2009 terms, which is the figure we gave the members the last time we were here, and the corresponding figure for 2006 would be €2.1 billion. The cost of the SJI proposal, published in July relating to the tax year 2006, with all the restrictions involved relating to income, age and so on, is €702 million to be precise. It is also alleged that we costed the CORI proposal. We did not, as we were not given any details of its scheme on the last occasion. Up to now we have not costed the SJI proposal, as the details of that scheme, which are welcome, were published only in July of this year. That is all I want for say for the moment. My colleague, Mr. Creighton, would like to say a few words on certain aspects.