In 1949, the contribution of industry to the national income was about 20 per cent., distribution and transport about 16 per cent. and all other activities (public authorities, professional and personal services, personal rent, net income from abroad, etc.) was about 36 per cent. With regard to the proportions borne by employees remuneration on the one hand and profits, rents, etc., on the other, it will be convenient to consider these items in relation to non-agricultural income produced at home, i.e. excluding net receipts from abroad. On this basis, wages and salaries represented about 67 per cent. of non-agricultural income produced at home in 1949, as compared with 67 per cent. in 1948, 64 per cent. in 1947 and 62 per cent. in 1938. Thus the share of employees remuneration in non-agricultural income has increased since before the war.
The provisional index for the year 1949 of the volume of production, (taking the base 1938 as equivalent to 100), of industries producing transportable goods was 142.9. The annual index for 1948 was 132.0 and 120.5 for 1947. These figures represent an increase in the volume of production of 18.6 per cent. between 1947 and 1949 and an increase of 8.3 per cent. between 1948 and 1949. This remarkable growth has since continued. In fact, the quarterly index for the first three months of 1950, which was 150.4 shows an increase of 14.6 per cent. over the figure of 131.2 for the corresponding period in 1949. It is a tribute to all concerned in industry in this country that, after the difficulties of the war period when there was a decline in volume of output of about 20 per cent. as compared with pre-war, there should have been such an extraordinary recovery.
The increase in the index of the volume of production have, of course, been accompanied by an increase in the total number of persons engaged in industries covered by the Census of Industrial Production from 166,000 in 1938 to an estimated total of 206,000 in 1949. All this growth has, in effect, taken place since 1946, when the total of 167,000 was almost at the pre-war level. In 1947 the volume of output per wage-earner was 7.4 per cent. above the pre-war level in the case of transportable goods industries and 5.7 per cent. up in the case of all industries. The 1948 figures show a further rise, the index for transportable goods industries being 12.6 per cent. and that for all industries and services 11.2 per cent. above pre-war. While great credit is due to Irish industrialists and Irish workers for such a considerable advance in so short a period, it is well to remember that these figures show that, in relation to the whole period since before the war, the increase represents a growth in industrial production of only about 1 per cent. per annum. In an expanding economy this is not, by international standards, an altogether impressive achievement and there should be no complacency among either employers or employees, particularly since an important contributory cause was improved equipment and improved availability of materials of suitable quality after the stringencies of the war years. A further great effort is needed in the industrial field, not only to increase production but to make it more efficient. Big improvements are called for in organisation of industry, in management skill, in improved standards of work by employees, all of which will contribute to improve industrial efficiency. In pursuit of these aims, we hope to secure some particularly useful help and advice from the Industrial Development Authority and from the Economic Co-operation Administration.
It must be emphasised that these figures for productivity which I have given are based on the data provided by the Census of Industrial Production returns and that these are far from ideal for such a purpose. They are useful as a rough measurement but special inquiries in the nature of costings for individual industries would be necessary to produce accurate measurements of this very difficult concept.
It is too often assumed that a growth in the physical output per worker will of necessity produce an equal increase in the amount available for distribution between the factors of production. In fact, however, there has been since pre-war a fairly considerable decrease in the net output of industry when expressed as a percentage of gross output. In 1938 in the industries producing transportable goods net output was 34.1 per cent. of gross output, in 1947 it was 31.1 per cent. and 30.7 per cent. in 1948. For all industries and services between 1938 and 1948, gross output increased in value by 136 per cent. while net output increased by 110 per cent. There is accordingly, as compared with pre-war, relatively less for everybody concerned in the gross output.
Net output represents the value added by processing to the materials of industries and is the sum available for distribution in wages, salaries, profits and other miscellaneous costs. While between 1938 and 1948 the total output increased by 110 per cent., wages and salaries increased by 116 per cent., profits and miscellaneous costs having increased by 102 per cent. The actual increased in wages was 120 per cent. and in salaries 98 per cent. Expressed otherwise, wages and salaries constituted a somewhat larger proportion of the net output in 1948 than in 1938, namely, about 61 per cent. as compared with 60 per cent.
Agriculture too, has shown a striking and encouraging improvement. From its very nature agricultural production is slow both in its rise and fall. Due to the efforts of our farmers, despits all the wartime shortages of fertilisers, equipment and so on, the volume of gross agricultural output never fell more than 7 per cent. below the 1938-39 level during the war years. Last year the gross volume of agricultural output was back to the pre-war level and the net output volume showed a gain of 2.2 per cent. over 1938-39.
While the increase in industrial production has been accompanied by an increase in the numbers engaged, the pre-war level of agricultural production has been attained despite a fairly considerable fall in the numbers of workers in agriculture. Much though this is to be regretted, it must not be forgotten that the implication is that a smaller number engaged in agriculture have had a larger share in the return. In this context it must be emphasised that before the war there was chronic underemployment on Irish farms.
If we are to succeed in stemming the tide of emigration, we must do so by providing work for our people at home. Not only must there be a further considerable increase in industrial employment but the output of agriculture must rise too. Our industries are unfortunately very largely dependent on the import of raw materials and these we must pay for. It is, of course, quite legitimate to use some of our accumulated sterling assets to purchase capital equipment and materials for capital development but it would be questionable policy deliberately to use them for the current purchases of other raw materials. We must, therefore, if our industry is to develop, expand our exports to buy the increased quantities of materials needed. Improved agricultural production and exports are therefore a fundamental need of our economy not only for the expansion of the home market but also to provide the wherewithal to enable our industry to continue to forge ahead as it has been doing in the recent past and continues to do.
The transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural employment within the State is proceeding at a strikingly rapid rate. In this connection I would like to indicate in a very general way the extent of the change in the distribution of the working population between 1936 and 1946 as shown by the Census of Population. Fairly detailed statistics of the distribution of the population at work will be published in the September issue of the Irish Trade Journal and Statistical Bulletin. The Census statistics show that between 1936 and 1946 the whole population at work declined slightly from 1,235,000 to 1,228,000, the number in agriculture falling from 609,000 to 572,000, the number in industry increased from 205,000 to 212,000, and the number in other employments (distribution, transport services, public services, etc.) increased from 421,000 to 444,000. These changes are highly significant but far less so than the changes which have been occurring during the last four years. Since 1946, the Census year, it is roughly estimated that the number at work in agriculture has fallen by a further 50,000 while the number in industry has increased by 40,000 and the number in other employments has increased by 20,000, the overall increase being 10,000. The percentage of the working population in agriculture is now but 42 per cent. of the total as compared with 49 per cent. in 1936, the proportions in industry 20 per cent. as compared with 17 per cent. in 1936 and the proportions in other employments 38 per cent. as compared with 34 per cent. in 1936. Though agricultural output has been increasing during the last four years, the decline in the agricultural population is to be deplored, but there it is. It would be far better if a much greater increase in agricultural output could be obtained, the workers remaining on the land. The endemic underemployment in agriculture before the war in now taking its toll. It is highly significant that between 1936 and 1946 the numbers of “relatives assisting farmers” declined by 41,000 accounting for the total decline in the agricultural section of the national economy. This is the class which was formerly underemployed, and which is now becoming absorbed in productive industrial employment.
A measure of the magnitude of the problem facing the country in trying to lessen, if not to stop, emigration is that, despite the fact that the agricultural population was never so prosperous as it is now and non-agricultural employment and earnings were higher than ever before, emigration continues. In the four years 1946 to 1949 and in the 12 months ended May of this year, the net passenger balances by sea (probably the best indication of the volume of net emigration) were as follows:—
Period |
Number |
Year 1946 |
3,000 |
,, 1947 |
10,000 |
,, 1948 |
27,000 |
,, 1949 |
17,000 |
Twelve months ended May, 1950 |
11,000 |
I do not wish to make political capital from the fact that net emigration has shown some tendency to decrease in 1949-1950. This problem is not only the responsibility of the Government but of the Oireachtas and the country. There is no guarantee that the recent decline will continue. One can only hope that potential emigrants in the future will consider their personal interest and the interest of their country, and that the favourable economic environment will have the desirable psychological effect of keeping them at home in well-paid employment. In this connection, however, I should like to repeat what I have already said, that since 1946 the number of persons engaged in non-agricultural employment has increased by the remarkable figure of 60,000.
A guiding rule in Government policy has been and continues to be the desirability of maintaining a satisfactory equilibrium in the balance of payments. This must not be taken to mean that all other considerations must be sacrificed to achieve a strict balance between the values of exports and imports. It does mean, however, that in formulating economic policy the Government gives careful consideration to the possible effects on that policy of both the balance of trade and the balance of payments. There are times when a temporary disequilibrium in the balance of payments is fully justified. There are times when the implementation of a particular economic policy requires the conscious creation of a deficit in the balance of payments. Such a deficit is inevitable, for instance, if a policy of repatriation of foreign assets is being undertaken. What is necessary, however, is to ensure that fluctuations in the balance of payments are not left to the blind arbitrament of chance.
In 1947 the deficit in the balance of trade was £91.8 millions; in 1948 the deficit in the balance of trade was £87 millions; in 1949 it had fallen to £69.3 millions. The substantial reductions achieved over these years in the unfavourable balance was in the main due to a very substantial increase in exports. The comparatively high level of imports in each of the years 1947-1948, inclusive, as compared with pre-war years, was due mainly to the general increase in prices. It was also partly due to the better availability of supplies which permitted considerable restocking in the home market to meet arrears of demands since the shortages of the war years.
One of the healthiest features of our economy since 1947 has, however, been the striking increase in exports. In 1947, the value of exports and reexports was £39.5 millions; in 1949, the figure had risen to £60.5 millions. The main items responsible for this great increase in the value of exports during 1949 were cattle and beef, eggs, poultry, raw wool, chocolate crumb, ropes, jams, marmalades, beer, whiskey, paper and cardboard.
In 1949, the volume of imports was 27 per cent. over the 1938 volume; the value of these imports was about three times the corresponding figure for 1938. The value of exports in 1949 was two and a half times the pre-war level, but the volume in 1949 was 90 per cent. of the pre-war level. The significance of this encouraging feature in our trade position is underlined by the fact that the volume of exports in 1949 increased by about 20 per cent. over 1948.
In 1948 the import price index was 259 as compared with 100 in 1938. In 1949, despite devaluation, it had fallen to 248. In 1948, the export price index was 273; in 1949, it rose to 279.
For the first five months of 1950 our imports have shown an increase in value of £9.9 millions (or of 18 per cent.) as compared with the corresponding period last year.
The increase in volume has been about 11 per cent. and the remainder of the rise is attributable to price increases. The total value of our exports for January-May, 1950 is £1.6 million greater than for January-May, 1949, an increase of about 7 per cent. In the case of exports the increase in volume was about 6 per cent. and the rise due to prices relatively small.
The question of the composition of our imports is just as important as that of their total value or volume. In 1938, out of a total of £41.4 million, we imported £2.9 million worth of producers' capital goods ready for use or 7.0 per cent. of all imports. In 1949 such capital imports totalled £13.5 million or 10.4 per cent. of all imports. It is very difficult to classify the materials imported for industry as to whether they are required for the production of capital or of consumers' goods. An attempt has, however, been made to do so and, using the same basis in 1938 and in 1949, it is estimated that the total value of the imports of capital goods ready for use and of materials for home produced capital goods was £9.1 million in 1938 and £33.5 million in 1949. Such imports constituted 22.0 per cent. of the total in 1938 and 25.8 per cent. in 1949. The corresponding percentages for imports in the first four months of 1949 and 1950 have been estimated as 25.8 and 25.5 respectively.
It is of the utmost importance to realise that in a year such as 1949 when we drew on our accumulated sterling balances to the extent of somewhat less than £10,000,000, we at the same time imported £13,500,000 worth of capital goods ready for use as well as about another £20,000,000 worth of material for the production of capital goods at home. Thus, by far the greater portion of these capital imports were financed by our earnings on current accounts.
The deficits in the balance of payments in 1947 and 1948 amounted respectively to £30,000,000 and £20,000,000. These were financed by drawing upon external assets and the aggregate drawing represented about one-third of the accumulation of sterling assets during the preceding seven years when current receipts could not be fully spent owing to the acute difficulty in obtaining supplies from abroad. Notwithstanding higher imports in 1948, the over-all deficit on current account declined by £10,000,000 as compared with 1947 as a result of higher invisible earnings as well as increased exports. In 1949 the balance of payments was brought considerably nearer full equilibrium, the provisional Estimate showing a deficit of approximately £10,000, probably less than £10,000 when final figures are available. This position has been achieved mainly through increased exports.
The problem of the deficit in the balance of payments with the dollar countries, which had continued since the war to overshadow all the other economic problems of the sterling area, was greatly aggravated during the early part of 1949 by a temporary falling-off in U.S. purchases of sterling area materials, at the very time that imports from North America by the members of the sterling group were increasing. Throughout the first eight months of 1949 the position of sterling continued to be critical. Certain sterling area countries curtailed imports from dollar sources. But the obvious inadequacy of that step alone, the withholding of foreign orders for British and other sterling goods in the expectation of an alteration in exchange rates, and, to a lesser extent, concern over the volume of indirect transactions financed in open markets through so-called "cheap sterling", all contributed to the announcement by the British Government in September, 1949, of a 30 per cent devaluation of the £ in terms of dollars. Britain's step in devaluing was promptly followed by similar action on the part of all the other countries of the sterling area except Pakistan, and by a 9 per cent. cut in the Canadian dollar. The great importance of this group of countries in world trade soon forced most of the countries of Western Europe and several overseas countries to devalue their currencies as well.
Following devaluation, the value of exports to countries that did not devalue required to be increased by 44 per cent. in terms of Irish currency, in order to earn the same amount of foreign exchange as before. The same was true, in a modified degree, in the case of exports to those countries which devalued only partially with reference to sterling. As Irish exports go mainly to Britain and other countries which also devalued their currencies, the effect on our export trade of the alteration in the exchange rate of the £ could not be appreciable. In the case of Britain, devaluation of the £ was calculated to stimulate larger sales to the Western Hemisphere through a reduction in the dollar prices of British goods. In Ireland's case, the prospect of developing exports to the United States is not likely to be influenced immediately to any substantial extent by devaluation because the types of products which Ireland has available for export are not, in general, such as to command a sizeable market in the United States. Similar considerations apply in the case of Canada, to which exports at present are small.
Belgium and Switzerland are such highly competitive markets by reason of their liberal import régimes, that they are unlikely to provide scope for any large expansion in our exports of manufactured goods, as we have to compete in these and other markets with the many countries which have devalued their currencies to the same extent as ourselves.
In view of the many unpredictable factors involved, it is extremely difficult to give a considered opinion on the probable long-term effects of devaluation on trade and prices. One of the immediate and automatic effects was, of course, that imports from dollar sources were rendered 44 per cent. dearer in terms of Irish currency than previously. However, apart from the mechanical adjustments in the relationship between the two price series, the ultimate effect of devaluation must inevitably be an increase in sterling prices and a decrease in dollar prices. Prices of various commodities in the U.S.A. have already shown reductions, by reason of a certain fall in demand and for other causes. The import prices of raw materials and food stuffs originating in the dollar area have risen by widely varying margins, ranging up to the full extent of 44 per cent.
Irish import prices have risen on average by 2 per cent and wholesale prices by 1 per cent. between January and May, 1950. The index number of retail prices at mid-May, 1950 (Base: mid-August, 1947 = 100) was 102. Agricultural prices dropped seasonally by 1 per cent. during that period. The terms of trade, that is, the ratio of the export price index to the import price index remains favourable to this country, on the 1938 basis of exchange.
The comparative stability of Irish prices since devaluation is probably due to the fact that supplies of many commodities have been obtained at pre-devaluation rates from producers' stocks, and, in particular, from forward purchases in Britain. The comparative steadiness of British export prices, which increased by about 5 per cent. between April, 1949, and April, 1950, is reflected in the relatively small increase in Irish import prices.
The increases in the British index numbers for import, wholesale and retail prices between April, 1949, and April, 1950, have been relatively much greater than in the corresponding Irish price index numbers. During this period, British import prices rose by 13 per cent., wholesale prices by 10 per cent. and retail prices by 4.6 per cent. Significantly, the rise in British import and wholesale prices represents mainly increases in costs of raw materials and of goods in which the passage of raw materials to the finished article is rapid. A second phase is now in process of completion, in which the substantial increase in the cost of raw materials since devaluation (prices of imports have risen on average by over 25 per cent.) is spreading its effect throughout the whole structure of industrial costs and prices. The effects of this second phase, in so far as this country is concerned, are likely to be reflected in an advance in Irish import prices in future months. Owing to the relatively high ratio which imports bear to the total supply of goods and services, an increase in import prices would undoubtedly be reflected in both wholesale and retail prices generally.
Heretofore Ireland's traditional products have not been such as to command a significant market in North America and even yet the contribution which commodity exports can make to increasing our dollar earnings is of very limited dimensions. The most valuable part which Ireland can play, and is playing towards closing the European dollar gap consists in exporting to the other member countries of the O.E.E.C. the commodities, mainly animal products, food and drink, which these countries would otherwise have to obtain from dollar sources. Energetic efforts are nevertheless being made to increase Ireland's direct exports of commodities and services to North America. The most anxious attention is being given to the tourist industry, our most important potential source of dollar income, and the recent establishment of the Dollar Exports Advisory Committee is evidence that the Government will spare no effort to devise the most effective means of expanding the volume of our commodity exports to dollar countries. During the past twelve months steps have been taken to exhibit samples of Irish goods in North America. There was an exhibition of Irish products in a large store in Boston in the early part of 1949, and a similar exhibition in New York towards the end of last year. The Government have decided to participate in an international trade fair to be held in Chicago in next month and are providing financial assistance to enable Irish firms to take part.
The Government have been giving very active attention to the development of an export trade generally in Irish manufactured goods. In negotiations which have led to the conclusion of trade agreements, not merely with Great Britain, but with France, Western Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, the greatest importance has been attached to the necessity for securing entry to the markets of these countries for the products of Irish industry. These trade agreements, by securing the right of entry for Irish goods, enable our industrialists to plan ahead with confidence in the knowledge that for a wide range of goods a market is available.
The 1948 Trade Agreement with France was renewed last year. So too was the agreement with Sweden. A very satisfactory trade agreement with Western Germany has been signed this week, which guarantees a considerable increase in the volume of trade between Ireland and Germany for the next 12 months. Preliminary arrangements are at present being made for the extension of other trade agreements or for the negotiation of new ones.
During the past 12 months unemployment has continued to decline. The percentage of persons insured under the Employment Insurance Acts who were registered as unemployed averaged 9.0 in the year 1949 as compared with 9.4 in 1948, 9.3 in 1947 and 15.0 in 1938. In the first six months of 1950 the figure averaged 8.7 per cent., substantially below the 10.3 per cent. in the corresponding period last year. Actually the 6.6 per cent. for June, 1950, is by far the lowest on record. These percentages cover the whole State. In cities and towns, where unemployment is usually more severe in its incidence than in rural districts, where it is sometimes mitigated by earnings in kind, the number in the period January to May averaged 28,000 in 1950, 32,000 in 1949 and 43,000 in 1938. The decline in actual numbers must be considered against the background of a substantial increase in the working population to which reference has already been made. The difference in trend as between skilled and unskilled reflects, of course, the present great demand for skilled industrial workers.
While, in general, this country cannot be regarded yet as enjoying a condition of full employment, there are serious shortages of skilled labour and, for this reason, the Government has been campaigning to induce skilled workers to return from Great Britain to assist in the industrial expansion of their homeland. On this point Deputies will be interested to know that between January, 1939, and January, 1950, while the number of unskilled industrial workers unemployed declined by 24 per cent., the number of skilled workers unemployed declined by much more, namely 52 per cent. Between January, 1949, and January, 1950, the percentage declines in unemployment were respectively seven and 19 for the unskilled and skilled unemployed.
Having presented the House with a brief and necessarily sketchy survey of the various sections of the country's economic activities, I should now like to refer in a general way to the economic policy of the Government. There has been an attempt in some quarters to suggest that the form of this year's Budget and the financial policy underlying it represented a radical departure from the financial policy enunciated by members of the Government during the first year of its existence. I think it is not merely my right but my responsibility to express a comment on these suggestions.
In my first public statement as Taoiseach in a broadcast on the 24th February, 1948, I summarised as follows the economic policy which the Government would pursue:—
"In existing circumstances efforts must be concentrated on measures to increase the national income so as to provide within the limits of our resources for adequate health and social services; so as, within the shortest possible time, to increase agricultural and industrial production and thereby provide some hope of easing the pressing burden of the high cost of living. Our export trade must be increased so as to lessen the serious gap between the volume of exports and imports which is causing disorder in our balance of payments. The real wealth of the nation must be increased."
It will, I think, be admitted from the statistical evidence I have given the House that many of these aims have been achieved.
Speaking in Dublin on the 26th May, 1948, in an address to the Dublin Chamber of Commerce, I said:—
"I have stressed the necessity for saving. But having done so it is necessary to give equal emphasis to the necessity for productive investment of savings. It will be generally agreed that this country has for many decades been suffering from chronic under-investment. . . . It can scarcely be questioned that our national income per head is far too low for a country so rich as ours which has the potential to be very much richer. Unless national capital is increased, there is no hope for any real increase in the national income. . . . There is no reason why this country, which is comparatively under-developed, should be satisfied with a normal rate of increase in national income. We should aim at a rate of increase much above the normal, and the Government is determined to use every effort to secure the acceptance of that which must be regarded as a fundamental truth of Irish economics."
These observations were made, I repeat over two years ago.
The Government have been using every effort during the past two and a half years to secure the acceptance of the truth contained in these observations by encouraging productive investment and by creating conditions favourable to productive investment.
Speaking in this House last July, in the course of introducing the Estimate for my Department—Dáil Debates. Vol. 117, No. 16, col. 1368—I repeated that the policy of providing productive work and thereby increasing the wealth of the nation was the underlying principle of all Government policy. I said:—
"That policy is indicated by the high level of capital expenditure which is provided in the Budget this year. Most people regard the annual Budget which is introduced to this House as something which either imposes taxation or which they hope will decrease taxation. That portion of the Budget which deals with taxation, with the housekeeping element in our country's affairs, in fact, only brings within its scope something like one-fourth of the country's economic activities. That portion of the Budget is important in itself. You might refer to it as the budget of expenses, the housekeeping portion. However, to get a comprehensive over-all picture of our national economy and activities, you must look at the really important portion of the Budget which deals with the employment of public moneys, the capital schemes and capital expenditure."
I think it will be agreed from these extracts and from other statements I have made on the Government's economic policy since I assumed office, that the principle of large-scale capital investment has been, from the beginning, a most important feature of Government policy. The recent Budget did not introduce that principle for the first time. The form of the recent Budget and the form of the Estimates for the current financial year merely presented that principle in a manner which made it perfectly clear to every member of the public that, in practice as well as in theory, the Government's economic policy was founded on the principle that, in a modern State which aims at providing productive employment for its citizens and for its national resources, budgetary policy must be based on the national income as a whole and not on the limited sector of that national income which enters into what might be called the ordinary current or housekeeping Budget.
The size of the national income is the only real indicator of economic development. Increases in productivity and increments in national income combine to provide a dividend of progress in an expanding economy. Only through an expanding economy can we provide the better living standards for our people which must be the ultimate aim of all Government policy. It will be generally agreed by people who accept this principle that the dual Budget system which we have now adopted is the best way of indicating clearly to our people the measures which are being devised to reap, through increases in national income, the dividend of progress to which I have referred. In this way alone can policy be framed so to achieve such a level of productive national activity that full employment may become a reality and avoidable emigration unnecessary. Emigration and under-employment have been endemic in this country for so long that the disease cannot be extirpated overnight. Laissez-faire methods will not provide a cure; only the deliberate creation of satisfactory social and economic conditions will eliminate it. Much has been achieved to reduce unemployment and the work is going on. Throughout the world, chronic unemployment has become in this century the greatest threat to free institutions. We are convinced that only by vigorously pursuing the policy of capital investment upon which we have embarked can Irish democracy survive the requirements of this century and serve the greatest good of a people whose traditional way of life has been built on thrifty enterprise and personal effort.
We want to encourage enterprise from employers and from workers, from local bodies, chambers of commerce, vocational groups and trade unions. We want to stimulate a spirit of local initiative and inculcate a greater sense of responsibility in our people. Our economic policy has been aimed at creating conditions in which this progress by the community may be possible. To maintain a high level of employment of men and national resources is more than a mere political expedient. It is an essential condition of democratic survival. Since introducing the Budgetary policy about which I have been speaking, members of the Government have invited constructive criticism from all sections of the people and from all sides of this House. We welcome constructive criticism which may have the effect of improving the plans we are putting into operation. I regret that very little constructive criticism has been offered by members of the Opposition, but such as has been offered suggests that, instead of pursuing an expansionist policy at present, the Government should restrain its borrowing for capital investment to the minimum, so that resources might be available to meet a cyclic depression which pessimistic prophets foresee. This attitude was summed up by the statement that we were "using resources that might be needed for use when depression and deflation came". The reference is to the Leader of the Opposition, Volume 121, No. 3, column 391, of the Official Reports. This attitude displays a misunderstanding of the economic policy which we are pursuing and ignores the economic realities of the external world. This country has not been affected to any extent by cyclic depressions. Our problem is one of continued under-unemployment of natural resources. We do not have to wait for a world depression before having to mobilise our resources by borrowing for the purpose of maintaining a high level of employment. Private investment alone is not sufficient to maintain in Ireland a high level of employment.
Ever since the formation of the State, throughout the terms of office of successive Governments there has been a high level of unemployment, a high volume of unemployment, a high volume of emigration and a great part of our land inadequately developed or left unfertile. In circumstances such as these, it is the sheerest mockery of economic theory to suggest that no drastic action should be taken to improve the conditions of our economy until such time as a chronic depression descends upon Europe. In circumstances such as exist in Ireland, with men and natural resources unemployed, the employment of these idle resources must be secured through investment which, if it cannot come from private effort, must be supplied by the State. This country is not materially affected by cyclic depressions after the manner of complex industrial societies where there are great fluctuations in demand. Our problem is not an acute depression but a constant, long-sustained level of undeveloped and unemployed resources. We do not have to import a chronic depression before taking action. The level of our unemployment and emigration during the past quarter of a century is ample testimony that in a very real sense some pernicious economic illness has in the past held the Irish economy in its paralysing grip.
It has been observed that the policy which we are pursuing involves a danger of inflation. The Minister for Finance has gone to great care to point out the risks of inflation which exist in the present situation. The fact, however, that the danger or the risk of inflation exists is quite a different thing from the actuality of inflation. As mortals, we all face the risk or danger of sudden death, but we do not have to act as if sudden death were already upon us and the risk and fear were actualities. To refuse to take a risk in a good cause is a sorry admission of feeble timidity, particularly when, as in the present context, there is so much more to justify the effort than the comforting thought that in the long run we will all be dead.
Nor is there any truth or any substance in the suggestion that the capital investment programme involves the use for the benefit of the community of more resources than it can afford. It is perfectly evident that there are resources of men and material available for productive use and I am sure most members of the House will agree that what is physically possible is financially possible. I do not say it is always desirable. The danger of inflation becomes imminent only when an attempt is made by financial means to achieve that which is physically impossible. We are a long way from that point in this country and I can assure you that that is an experiment which this Government will never undertake —in times of peace, at any rate.
It has become the fashion in some quarters to criticise in a sweeping way the general policy of the capital investment programme and to criticise vaguely the schemes covered by that policy. Such criticism is valueless. If critics can point to the undesirability of executing any specific scheme as a capital investment project they are being helpful. But if they condemn in mere general terms, without indicating which scheme they would reject, their criticism becomes merely irresponsible. In this House, this afternoon, the Minister for Finance repeated the challenge to the Opposition to give him details of any of the £12,000,000, of the projects for capital expenditure, which are specifically stated in the Book of Estimates, to which they object, and he will deal with their objections. As a feature of this irresponsible criticism I would refer to a statement made on one or two occasions to the effect that the national debt of this country has increased by 50 per cent. in the past few years. The real position is quite otherwise. In March, 1950, the gross liabilities of the State amounted to £157.3 millions of which over £21,000,000 represents the liquid proceeds of the Marshall Aid Fund, which are available for use and which are being used for the benefit of the community. The gross national assets of the State amounted to £43.9 millions in 1947. On the 31st March of this year they had increased by £45,000,000 to a figure of £88,000,000. In speaking of the national debt it is necessary to consider both sides of the national balance sheet; to take both national liabilities and national assets in conjunction to get a clear picture of the true national debt position. When this is done it is easy to appreciate the nonsense of the suggestion that the national debt of the State has increased by 50 per cent. in the past few years.
Speaking to Clonmel Chamber of Commerce on the 24th April of last year I made a reference to public debt which I think I should repeat here. It is as follows:—
"There is a close analogy between the national debt and the debt of a private corporation. A private corporation, like the nation, does not expect to die. A corporation debt is treated in the balance sheet as the counterpart to the plant and equipment and other assets that the debt represents. An increase in outstanding debt is regarded by the directors as the counterpart of expenses of equipment and plant undertaken to deal with an increased volume of business. That firm, therefore, is debt-free only when it is bankrupt. No accountant would be so absurd as to report to his directors a deficit of £9,000 in a year in which his business earned a profit of £1,000 and in which the firm was able to spend £10,000 on building a new factory. Yet that is precisely the mistake made when speaking of a national deficit resulting from capital investment by the State."
The aim of the Government's economic policy is to secure a more buoyant and expanding national income, which will, in real terms, increase substantially the standard of living of our people and solve the problems of emigration and unemployment. The up-to-date statistics which I have quoted indicate the progress which has been made and which is being made to that end. The Government will spare no effort to accelerate that progress. For far too long Ireland has been a country of unrealised social and economic potentialities.
Dealing with this Estimate last year, I stated that it gave an opportunity to Deputies to look at the over-all picture. In the course of the discussion on Estimates for individual Ministers, Deputies had an opportunity of dealing with the details of Government expenditure and Government policy. This Estimate gives an opportunity for dealing with over-all Government policy and of having a look at the over-all picture.
Although, this year, the picture must be looked at in the rather more sombre background of the present international scene, nevertheless, some of the tints in the picture to which I referred last year as being bright are brighter still this year. Some of the tints which were grey last year are brighter this year. There are still some dark spots but, looking at the picture as a whole, I think we have solid grounds for a reasonable satisfaction as to what has been achieved and have considerable justification for prudent confidence in the future.