asked the Taoiseach whether a valuable standard, whereby the extent of emigration to Great Britain might be gauged, has been lost as a result of the fact that a passport or travel permit is not required by an Irish citizen entering that country; and, if so, if he will indicate the alternative method intended to be relied upon in that regard.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Emigration Gauge.
The answer to the first part of the question is in the negative.
In this general connection, I would refer the Deputy to the article entitled "Statistics of Emigration and Passenger Movement" on pages 76 to 84 of the Irish Trade Journal and Statistical Bulletin of June, 1951, in which the relative values of the different sources of statistics of migration are discussed. As was stated in that article, the number of new travel documents issued cannot be taken as equivalent to the number of emigrants. In official statements issued since the article was published it has repeatedly been made clear that the number of travel documents is not true measure of net emigration.
In the earlier years after the institution in 1939 of the travel permit system, the statistics derivable from this source could be regarded as a substantially accurate record of emigration to Britain but, as time went on, the usefulness of these statistics for the assessment of emigration steadily deteriorated to the point that in the last few years they have become seriously misleading. This is illustrated by the fact that in 1950 gross emigration to Britain and the Six Counties was estimated at 73,000 from the passenger card inquiry and other records, whereas the number of new travel identity cards and passports issued to persons who stated that they were going to employment or to permanent residence in Britain and the Six Counties was only 12,768.
The principal defect in the travel permit and identity card statistics as a measure of emigration was that they related to new issues only, i.e., predominantly to migrants travelling for the first time. Nothing was known as to emigrants travelling for the second, third, etc., time to Britain. These are known to be numerous. Furthermore, the travel documents did not indicate the number of persons returning from work in Britain, which, in 1950, was estimated as being as great as 36,000, whereas the number going to employment was about 73,000, as already stated. It is probable that numbers of persons who declared on their applications for travel documents that they were tourists, etc., in fact accepted employment in Britain.
The only firm records of migration are those derivable for intercensal periods and these relate to net emigration (or the excess of emigration over immigration). The principal disadvantage of this source of information is that censuses are taken only at extended intervals of time, so that they cannot be used to compile statistics of emigration for yearly or shorter periods. As explained in the article to which I have referred, the passenger card sample inquiry, in conjunction with global statistics of passenger movement into and out of the State, classified by origin of journey, furnishes estimates of emigration to and immigration from Great Britain. The main disadvantage of this method of estimation is that, as pointed out in the Journal article, it is subject to a large error of estimation, since it is based on a relatively small number of passenger cards. Furthermore, this method cannot be used as a basis of estimation for the classification of emigrants by sex, age, occupation, or county of last residence. The passenger card inquiry was designed primarily to estimate tourist, etc., expenditure in this country, as well as Irish tourist expenditure abroad, for balance of international payments purposes, and may be regarded as furnishing reasonably satisfactory results to this end.
For many years the net passenger movement, representing the difference between the number of passengers in and out by sea, rail, road (motor omnibus) and air was used as an estimate of annual net emigration. Comparison of the results of this assessment with those derivable for recent intercensal periods shows that this method was not reliable, principally, it is thought, because it did not take into account passenger movement by road across the Border other than in public service vehicles.
With regard to the second part of the Deputy's question, it may be stated that the importance of deriving accurate and comprehensive statistics of emigration is fully realised. The present position is that complete and accurate statistics of emigration by sea to countries out of Europe are being compiled, and it is hoped that the corresponding figures for transport by air will be available in the near future. The prospects are not so propitious for the measurement of migration to and from Britain. Accurate statistics of gross emigration and immigration for annual or shorter periods, classified by age, sex, occupation and county, could be derived only by the institution of frontier controls similar to those in other countries. Having regard to the freedom of travel to which passengers have become accustomed between this country, the Six Counties and Britain, and the huge volume of passenger traffic — the number of passenger journeys per annum into and out of the State is approximately three million each way — the formidable difficulties of instituting controls can be appreciated. In this connection, it will be borne in mind that the numbers of emigrants and immigrants, though large in the absolute, are very small fractions of the total passenger movement, and passengers generally would be liable to resent controls designed to measure migration only.
An annual count of heads of the population would furnish annual statistics of net emigration classified by sex and county of residence in the State. It would not show gross emigration and gross immigration separately, which is a disadvantage since the estimates I have quoted for 1950 show that both emigration and immigration (mostly of Irish persons returning from jobs in Britain) are of large dimensions. Furthermore, such an inquiry would not give any information as to ages and occupations of migrants. An annual count of heads of the population is virtually a census as far as enumeration is concerned, and, it goes without saying, this is a formidable task.
It will accordingly be realised that the establishment of a fully reliable and comprehensive system of emigration statistics would be a major undertaking. The matter can, however, be further considered in the light of any relevant recommendation that may be made by the Commission on Emigration and Other Population Problems.