asked the Taoiseach the number of jobs required each year to provide the objective of full employment.
3.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Full Employment—Jobs Required Each Year.
2.
andMr. McQuillan asked the Taoiseach whether his statement that employment calculated on the basis of the average weekly number at work is now increasing at the rate of 9,000 a year, is intended to be a firm estimate of the actual number of new jobs provided between June, 1959 and June, 1960; what was the net increase in employment during this period; and the total number of new jobs required to provide work for those (1) leaving agriculture, (2) leaving schools and (3) at present unemployed.
With your permission, Sir, I propose to take Questions Numbers 2 and 3 together.
An estimate of the number of new jobs required in each year to maintain a full-employment situation would have to be based on a number of assumptions, such as:—
(a) the extent to which emigration due to non-economic causes might continue,
(b) the extent to which the number of persons occupied in agriculture might be expected to become stabilised and
(c) the extent to which improved employment opportunities in this country might attract home Irish workers who had previously emigrated.
It will be appreciated that no reliable estimates under these headings are possible and that individual judgments regarding them may vary considerably.
Furthermore, some definition of full employment is necessary. During the adjournment debate last December, I mentioned that one authority on the subject defined full employment as a situation in which not more than 3% on average of the labour force was unemployed.
It is estimated that the difference between the number of those who finish their schooling each year and the number of persons annually leaving the labour force through death or retirement is roughly 25,000. For a number of reasons, some proportion of those who finish their schooling would not enter the labour market. From this figure, it would be safe to conclude that approximately 20,000 new jobs annually would maintain full employment, if the other factors which I have mentioned are left out of account. The attainment of a state of full employment assumes the employment of those at present unemployed.
My statement that employment is now increasing at the rate of 9,000 annually was based on insurance stamp purchases in 1958, 1959 and to the latest available date in 1960. It is not possible to calculate from such purchases the amount of insured employment at particular dates.
Does the figure of 20,000 which the Taoiseach quoted assume that the rate of emigration will continue at the rate it has, say, during the past 10 years?
As I pointed out, one has to make a number of assumptions and one of the questions that necessarily arise is the extent to which emigration due to non-economic causes might persist.
What I wanted to ask the Taoiseach is this. Is that related to the 20,000 he has just quoted?
I have been asked to estimate the number of jobs which would provide the objective of full employment. The calculation I have made assumes that emigration other than emigration for non-economic causes would cease.
Could the Taoiseach state in what sector of the economy are those 20,000 jobs to be provided?
In any sector.
Are those 20,000 jobs to be taken with the 60,000 unemployed and that 80,000 new jobs are required?
I think that would be a false conclusion.
We will settle for 100,000 jobs.
Is the reference to 20,000 new jobs related purely to the number of those leaving school each year and without regard to the numbers that may emigrate or come from agriculture into industry?
I mentioned all these points. It will be appreciated that any calculations of this kind will not of themselves put anybody into a job. I have been asked to estimate what we must achieve in order to bring about the objective of full employment. I did so. It is clear from the information I have given in reply to the questions and the statement I made on the Adjournment debate that we must try to double our present rate of economic progress at least in order to bring about a situation of full employment.
The Taoiseach will appreciate the reasons for those questions. There have been one or two Ministers who have given different figures in regard to the number of jobs required.
Individual estimates will vary in respect of each of the assumptions I have made.
Is the figure of 80,000 new jobs a fair assumption?