asked the Minister for Finance why, when stating in reply to questions that the likely size of the current external deficit in 1969 was £55 million he did not explain that this figure depended upon an exceptional export of second-hand aircraft.
26.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - External Deficit.
25.
asked the Minister for Finance whether the external trade deficit for the 12 months ended October was £54½ million worse than in the calendar year 1968; whether in view of the fact that the current external payments deficit for 1968 was £20 million this means that the deficit for the 12 months ended October would have been £74½ million, if there had been no improvement in net external receipts this year; and whether it is the case that even if the whole of the £12-15 million improvement in net invisible receipts estimated by him for the calendar year 1969 took place during the first ten months of this year the current external deficit for the 12 months ended October would have been at least £59½ million to £62½ million.
27.
asked the Minister for Finance the grounds on which he believes that the rapid deterioration in the external payments position during the first ten months of this year will be halted or reversed in the last two months, as is implicit in his Dáil statement last week that the external deficit for the year would be £59½ million.
I propose with your permission, a Cheann Comhairle, to take Questions Nos. 25, 26 and 27 together.
My pre-budgetary forecast of a £55 million deficit in the balance of payments in 1969 was based on a calculation of aircraft imports net of certain sales of aircraft which were expected to take place in the last quarter of the year. It was decided within the past month that, for commercial reasons, these sales should be postponed and the projection must, therefore, be adjusted accordingly.
In regard to the Deputy's second question, it is not possible to give an accurate figure for the current external deficit for the 12 months ended October, as balance of payments estimates are available only for the calendar year. However, in regard to the Deputy's calculation, I would draw his attention to the fact that the figure of £54½ million to which it refers is the extent of the disimprovement in the external trade deficit in the ten months ended October and not in the 12 months ended October, as suggested. I should also point out that the latest published figure for the balance of payments deficit in 1968 is £22 million and not £20 million as indicated in the question.
The Deputy will appreciate that the figure of £12 to £15 million for the improvement in net invisible receipts in 1969, given in reply to his question on 5th November, was an extremely tentative estimate. There are indications now that the increase this year may be in a higher range but any estimate at this stage is of course still very tentative.
In regard to the third question, I indicated in my reply to a question by the Deputy on 13th November the reasons why I consider the trend of external trade should improve in the last few months of the year, compared with the trend of earlier months. Imports of an exceptional nature contributed to the large import excess in October.
Other than the severe restriction of credit at the moment, can the Minister say if any other measures are contemplated to improve the balance of payments position?
Not this year.
Not in this calendar year?
Is the Minister satisfied that no more corrective measures should be taken to keep the balance of payments at a satisfactory level?
Not this year.
That means within the next three weeks.