I was referring to the problem the country is facing from the point of view of educational policy and there not being sufficient employment to absorb school leavers this year. This is a very serious problem and worthy of discussion in any debate on the economy. The Department of Finance review refers to this very issue; there has been an increase in population, and projected increases for the next few years, with a higher proportion of our young people going through second and third level educational processes which aggravates the present problem with regard to unemployment. It will be necessary— I referred to this last year—to link our educational policy more closely to the needs of the economy in terms of employment opportunities. We must keep faith with school leavers so that they know what the reality is; even if it is not pleasant it is better that they should be informed.
Reference was made to this in a speech of Dr. McCabe in the lrish Independent; Dr. McCabe was the chief executive officer of Sligo educational committee and he now works with UNESCO. He referred to the fact that this year we will have about 50,000 school leavers. The problem is more acute this year because the leavers are more numerous, relatively well qualified and more politically conscious. Employment opportunities outside the country are not as numerous as they were in the past. Dr. McCabe referred to a laissez faire approach in second and third level education which has aggravated the problem. This is true. It is not a political point and I hope Opposition Deputies will take note of that. The previous Government implemented policies which have led to this problem. The number of graduates who will qualify in medicine are far in excess of the capacity of the country to employ. There is a critical situation in the teaching profession which has resulted in pressures on the Minister in the area of the retiring age and untrained personnel. Many more teachers are qualified than the country can provide jobs for. Education is largely supported by State subvention and so one must question the situation.
The other day a professor in medicine suggested that countries anxious to employ doctors trained here should give some financial assistance towards their training. I agree with Dr. McCabe's argument about integrating educational planning in national development planning because the issue will be substantial in the future due to the increased population and a higher standard of education resulting in higher aspirations on the part of our young people. Policy needs to be linked more closely to demand if we are not to run into very serious difficulties and a great deal of cynicism and disillusionment.
I referred to the major problem where inflation is concerned. This is an evil it is very difficult to get across to the man-in-the-street because there is a vast gulf between the aspirations of our people and that which is economically possible. If inflation continues at a rate of 20 per cent plus we will lose the capacity to attract investment from outside.
As the Taoiseach pointed out very clearly on Friday, with recession right around the western world, opportunities for investment are available in many other countries and if our inflation rate is to proceed at double figures we will lose the capacity to attract investment. In the long run, the man-in-the-street will suffer because some jobs will no longer exist and stagnation can develop and there will be no future for those at present unemployed and for the sons and daughters of those at present employed.
The future lies in a reduction of jobs or else in discipline and self-re-straint and through discipline and self-restraint the development of conditions which will attract investment from outside the country. In a country very much less developed than countries in the EEC we need manufacturing industry.
People will get hurt if there is restraint. It is all very well to generalise about governments or the EEC or the catastrophe that was started by the oil crisis. We are now feeling the effects of that crisis. We must get the message across that the Irish people are suffering and unless the Irish Government take adequate action conditions will get worse and there will be sacrifice and policies will have to be implemented which are unpalatable and which will affect householders.
The Employer/Labour Conference will consider what can be done. Some people suggest that we will have wage restraint if we have price control. There are problems in the prices area as anybody in business can tell you. There has been a spate of liquidations. Again, it is not an Irish phenomenon. It has been happening proportionately to a greater extent in Britain than here. Price control is difficult if it cuts profits and interferes with liquidity. Wage restraint, obviously, is vital. People will say that this cannot be done. When the chips are down, if the country is to survive and progress is to be made and if we are to consider future generations, we must accept that there will be a difficult time.
The Opposition have been upbraiding the Minister for Finance for introducing a second package of economic measures in the year 1975. I am not afraid to say that if the Minister for Finance sees the necessity for a third measure this year, we will support him in it. If measures are in the interest of the economy they must be introduced and the Minister will have the wholehearted support of the members of the Government parties in any measures considered to be necessary in the interests of the economy in this very difficult time. I am not saying this in a political sense. It is not likely that there will be a general election for about two years and we can kick the football back and forth across the House. If measures have to be taken, they should be taken.
I am glad that the Minister has introduced the stimulus of an employment premium. This runs counter to some of the charges from the Opposition that we were fostering a dole mentality and that we were strong on social welfare and nothing else. I explained earlier that because of the enormous increases in the price of foods as a result of the increased benefits to the farming community whose incomes increased very substantially in 1973-74, we had to look after the people less well off. We did that and make no apology for doing so.
Leaving aside the inevitable political opposition to the measures introduced and looking at the response from vocational groups to the Minister's speech, there was a considerable amount of criticism but there was unanimity in regard to the employment premium, that it is a good idea. Its simple raison d'etre is that if there is a substantial number of unemployed, the State should introduce schemes whereby State subvention will be continued but in the form of employing people. That is desirable. For that reason it has been universally welcomed.
I have one or two reservations. I do not think it goes far enough. The premium as envisaged by the Minister will be a stimulus to manufacturing industry. It will not provide a stimulus to investment in new manufacturing industries from outside the country because the time span is about 12 months, whereas the time span in the case of a new industry from its conception until it is in production is about 18 months to two years. Thought should be given to the expansion of this premium as a further means of attracting foreign investment.
I would welcome an investigation by the Government into the possibility of expanding the employment premium into areas other than manufacturing industry. Traditionally, it was the popular thing for politicians, especially in the west of Ireland, to push the dole. I represent the people there as much as anybody else. We do not want this. Certainly we want unemployment benefit in the absence of employment but primarily we want employment. There should be a cost benefit analysis by the Department of Social Welfare as to the possibility of developing work schemes in areas where there is a high level of unemployment benefit and unemployment assistance. The recipients are often under-estimated. Their dignity is not recognised to the extent it might well be. The vast majority of the people are keen to work. In the absence of work they will take whatever benefits are available. There is an extremely high level of State commitment in money terms in unemployment assistance and unemployment benefit. The possibility of developing work schemes should be explored whereby all kinds of work could be carried out such as cutting turf, trimming hedges, improving roads. There is a very high labour content in road work. If the large amount of money available for unemployment assistance could be channelled into providing work the nation, the Exchequer and individuals would benefit. There will be a ready response to such a scheme, not least from the very people I am speaking about and many of whom I personally represent in this House.
There have been some speeches of note from the Opposition. We had a great deal of criticism. We have not had suggestions. Deputy Haughey made a speech giving us his philosophy but there was no meat in it. Deputy O'Kennedy spoke. When the chips were down and they were challenged and asked what they would do, they did not have an answer.
The Minister is facing a dilemma. It is easy to suggest that stern measures should have been introduced but this is not a simple age. Because of the constraints within which a Governments work, the national wage agreements, the cost of living index problems, venting one's own pique by introducing rigid measures which on the surface seem to be necessary, might not have been the thing to do, and we must understand the dilemma which faced the Minister. If we had introduced sterner measures by additional taxation, by increasing the cost of beer and cigarettes, he would have added to the cost of living index and he would not have got the frame of mind within the Labour movement to respond to that. He had to take what might be called an enlightened gamble, to dangle one or two carrots, to attempt to break through this inflationary spiral and to attempt to de-escalate wage demands in order to get this country on a sound footing. While my opponents may smile at this, it is a fact. We have been in Government for two years.
