asked the Minister for Education if he has accepted a population growth path and participation ratios for the purposes of planning for education requirements over the next decade; if so, he will state the projections he has accepted; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Education Requirements.
9.
Projected population figures are obtained from the Central Statistics Office from time to time. These projections are provided on the basis of alternative hypotheses in five-year age groups and by five-year intervals. Projected participation ratios are applied to these population figures to produce enrolment by age group which is then converted to numbers by level by the application of distribution ratios.
Alternative projections of enrolment are obtained by applying transitional ratios to the population figures at the school entry ages, together with the application of survival-transitional ratios to previous years' enrolments.
Final projected figures are accepted on the basis of a comparison of the figures produced by these independent procedures in the light of informed opinion.
The current series of projections relate to the period to 1981-82 and are given in a tabular statement which, with the permission of the Ceann Comhairle is being circulated in the Official Report with my reply.
Following is the statement:
Projections by level 1978-79—1981-82
|
1978-79 |
1979-80 |
1980-81 |
1981-82 |
|
|
Thousands |
||||
|
1st level |
568.0 |
573.3 |
578.5 |
581.9 |
|
2nd level |
292.2 |
297.7 |
303.3 |
310.0 |
|
3rd level |
39.5 |
42.0 |
44.4 |
45.9 |