Vol. 315 No. 3
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the latest available projected rate of inflation increase for the year ending 1979 taking into account recent price rises and anticipated increases in CIE fares, oil prices and other commodities.
13.
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the expected inflation figure for the year 1979 with a comparative figure for 1978.
With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, I propose to take questions Nos. 12 and 13 together.
The rate of inflation as measured by the consumer price index for the year ending mid-November 1979 is forecast at 11½ per cent compared with 7.9 per cent for the year ended mid-November 1978.
Does this represent an increase on previous figures forecast by the Government? If so, what is the nature and extent of the increase?
No, because I do not think any figure was forecast by the Government for the year as a whole but only for the end year inflation.
Would the Minister accept that the only meaningful figure in inflation is a year-on-year figure and that end year figures can be successfully manipulated by the Government to give an unduly favourable indication of the economic situation?
No.
Question No. 12 refers to the anticipated increase in CIE fares. Has that been taken into account?
The anticipated increases are included in the projection.
Can the Minister tell us how much they are and when they will come into operation?
No. I have not got that information.
The figure for inflation for mid-1979 could not be compiled without knowing when they will come into operation and how much they are.
We are getting into an across the House argument.
May I be permitted to explain to the House that what I have available is the result of forecasts by an inter-departmental working group on consumer prices which, as the Deputy knows, is a standing group. I have the results of their calculations but I have not got the details of their calculations.
Increases in CIE fares are coming up?
That would not be an unreasonable assumption.
Surely the Minister knows when they will come up?
Whether I do or not is another question. That cannot be taken out by itself. Other items are mentioned in the question. As I have indicated, the anticipated increases have been taken into account by the working group in arriving at their forecasts which come out as I have indicated.
Can the Minister tell us when these increases are anticipated?
The Deputy should put down a separate question about that.
How does the Minister reconcile the forecast of 11.5 per cent for the end of the year with the forecast by the Minister for Economic Planning and Development in a recent issue of Magill that inflation for the last quarter will be of the order of 6.5 per cent which taken over the year is over 15 per cent? How does he envisage that the end of the year figure will be kept as low as 11.5 per cent if the Minister for Economic Planning and Development is forecasting a last quarter figure of 6.5 per cent?
That seems to be a separate question.
There is no difference between the two figures. I am sure the Deputy will be pleased to know the forecast shows a downward trend in each quarter of this year rather than an upward trend.
Given the 11½ per cent figure now projected, what happens to the 5 per cent projection in the Minister's Budget Statement?
I do not know what the Deputy is talking about.
Is it not a fact that the Minister and the Leader of the Opposition engaged in verbal warfare about this figure of 5 per cent which now turns out to be nearer the figure predicted by the Leader of the Opposition?
I do not know whether Deputy Mitchell is now referring to what Deputy Horgan has just been referring to. If he is, I would point out to him that that relates to a forecast for end of the year inflation and not for the full year's inflation.
