asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the unemployment figure at 31 March 1979 and the estimated figures for 30 June 1979, 30 September 1979 and 31 December 1979.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment Figures.
17.
The downward trend in the live register through 1978 was more than maintained in the first quarter of this year. The number on the live register on 30 March was 97,755, a fall of 3,167 since 29 December last. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this amounts to a decline of just over 5,000 or 5.2 per cent in the first quarter, compared with an average reduction for the four quarters of 1978 of 3.1 per cent. The number on the live register on 31 March 1978 was 111,014. The reduction for the 12 months to March 1979 was 13,259 or 11.9 per cent. If allowance is made for the change in October last in the regulations governing the eligibility of women for unemployment assistance, the reduction in the year to March 1979 was 15,359 or 13.8 per cent.
It is not possible to provide estimated figures for the June, September and December quarters as requested by the Deputy.
Was it not possible for the Minister in the publication of the plan for economic development last January to say that there would be a reduction of 25,000 in the current year? The Taoiseach repeated that recently. If it is possible to make an end of the year estimate, why not a quarterly estimate?
I do not think the Deputy is correct. The reference to 25,000 was the target for the increase in the numbers at work——
Not when the Taoiseach used it last week.
——not for a reduction in the numbers on the live register. It is not the practice to attempt quarterly estimates of the numbers on the live register because, while there is typically some sort of seasonal pattern, the general quality of information in this area is not good enough to sustain worthwhile estimates, particularly this year when we know that the data, especially for the June quarter, will be very distorted because of the postal strike and other factors.
Is the Minister aware that last week, when the Taoiseach was reporting to the House on the Summit, he used the phrase "the number out of work will be reduced by 25,000 people"?
As in the manifesto.
In my reply I was careful to say that my reference was to a reduction in the numbers on the live register. My reply is couched in terms of the numbers on the live register because that is the normal practice for giving information. Coming back to the numbers out of work, I agree to the extent that there are more people at work and fewer out of work but we do not have accurate estimates in that area.
This has been trotted out for the past two years and the Minister does not believe it himself.
It is true. I do believe it.
Will the Minister agree that in the EEC labour survey, although the categories are not identical, the numbers out of work are very close to the number on the live register and that therefore the live register is a good approximate indication of the numbers out of work?
The Deputy referred to one particular EEC labour force survey. If he looks at earlier surveys he will note that the trends between the two EEC labour force surveys point in a different direction to that suggested by the movements in the live register. This demonstrates to me that the general quality of the information in the unemployment area is poor. I said this on a number of occasions over the last two years. I would prefer that we tackle this problem by introducing new arrangements for improving the quality and regularity of data on movements in unemployment.
Will the Minister accept that the 1977 labour survey published here indicates that the quality of the information has been improved in this respect, as the Central Statistics Office indicated? Therefore, the 1977 figures, which are regarded by the CSO as more reliable than 1975 and which approximate to the live register figures at the time they were taken, offer a good indication that the live register is a correct order of magnitude of employment, contrary to the Minister's attempt to evade this over the past two years.
I have not attempted to evade this over the past two years; on the contrary I dealt with it when the opportunity arose. I have repeatedly attempted to demonstrate that the live register is not a good indicator of the absolute level of unemployment——
Which has now been shown to be correct by the CSO.
With respect to the Deputy, if he wishes to debate the matter I can clearly demonstrate that the live register is still not a good indicator of true unemployment figures and the CSO would be the first to recognise that.
Will the present rate of inflation and the effects of the oil crisis affect the unemployment figures by the end of this year?
I will provide this information in later questions.