asked the Taoiseach if a total figure for emigration is available for the years 1977 and 1978 in the light of a recent Central Bank report indicating emigration of 11,000 in 1978.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Emigration Figures.
6.
The only reliable estimates of migration flows are those for net migration compiled for intercensal periods by relating successive population figures to data for births and deaths in the same period. When the results of the 1979 Census of Population become available it will be possible to derive the net migration figures for the intercensal period 1971 to 1979.
Figures for net passenger movement by sea and air in the 12-month periods ending in February are used by the Central Statistics Office to provide a crude indicator of the annual trend in net migration. These data have, in the past, shown the correct direction of the net migration flows in intercensal periods and have provided an indication of its general order of magnitude. The net outward passenger movement by sea and air for the 12-month period ending in February 1978 was 11,000. Presumably this is the figure referred to in the annual report of the Central Bank for 1978.
Figures for the net passenger movement by sea and air, excluding Cork Airport, for the 12-month period ending February 1979 show a net inward passenger movement of 10,400. Figures for the year ended February 1978, again excluding Cork Airport, show a net outward passenger movement of 10,300. As a crude indicator of the annual trend in net migration, these figures indicate a change from a net emigration in the order of 11,000 in the year ended February 1978 to a net immigration in the order of 11,000 in the year ended February 1979.
Will the Minister state why the month of February was chosen rather than, say, the month of January? Is it because the month of February is more suitable for his purposes?
February was chosen as the normal month for such comparison. One of the reasons is fairly obvious, namely, that the Christmas period is clearly over by then. Looking at the figures for a number of years it would appear that February is a fairly suitable period.
Is the Minister aware that distortions sometimes occur? For example, an event like a football match can have a significant effect on the net figures. Would something like this possibly account for the apparent net inflow in a period when even the Government would hardly claim that their efforts have been so successful as to lead to large-scale net immigration?
I accept that from time to time events may affect the monthly situation but the figures have shown a consistent trend on the February basis. In this particular event the net inward movement has been of the order of 11,000.
Has the Minister of State more recent figures?
I was asked for the figures for 1977 and 1978.
If there were more recent figures since February, would they not indicate whether the trend had been maintained?
Of course the figures will change on a month-to-month basis but during the years February has been regarded as a reasonably accurate indicator of change. The only full and accurate way of dealing with this is to have a census taken but we know that there was not a census within the time concerned. However, we have had a census since then.
Can the Minister say when the provisional results of that census will be published and also when we may expect the final results to be published?
If the Deputy wishes to table a question to that effect, I shall make the appropriate inquiry.