Incredibly, we are still debating the budget. The primary characteristics and weaknesses of the budget have been discussed substantially already. They relate to the failure of the budget to protect the Irish £ by getting Government finances and our balance of payments into order, the dropping and eclipsing of the much talked about and much vaunted employment creation targets of the Government, which hitherto were the single feather in the Government's cap, failure to increase incentives to output and work, any real commitment to halting and, indeed, reducing inflation and the lack of the basic philosophic but important element in any budgetary strategy—commitment to social justice. Some of those elements have been discussed already and I shall not repeat the criticisms put forward. I do not intend clouding the issue by using economic jargon. On the issue of prices, the budget and the Government have created and are creating a prices holocaust which is unprecedented and is affecting every housewife and citizen. No amount of double-talk or soft-talk can disguise the fact that the rate of increase in the price of basic foodstuffs and purchases by the housewife is unprecedented. Worse than that is the fact that the Government, prior to the General Election of 1977, committed themselves to some sort of an attempt to tackle that subject. Not only have they failed to do this but they did not even make passing reference to the need to implement the promises in the manifesto in that regard.
One of the foundation stones on which stability in industrial relations, economic progress and growth of the economy must be founded is the question of orderly increases or, indeed, a freeze on prices altogether for a period of time. Instead of that we have had a cavalier approach to price increases by the Government. The approach is cavalier in so far as not merely does it not make any passing reference to the need to control the rate of increase but it blithely increases the cost of many essential items for the housewife by 20 per cent and upwards. The Government, to use the infamous phrase, have stood idly by while witnessing the increasing of prices on such things as heating, foodstuffs and so on by massive amounts. A matter of weeks ago a cylinder of gas was increased by 77p.
The cumulative effect of this failure to even confront the raging increase in prices is to leave the impression in everybody's mind that the Government do not have the slightest interest or sincerity of concern about the attempt to curb inflation. The predominant feature of the budget will be to send inflation soaring upwards at an unprecedented rate, and more people are increasingly appreciating the way the budget is seeping through the economy. We must bear in mind that we have not got most of the price increases yet; many more increases will come into effect on 1 May. A lot was expected from the new Taoiseach and his reshuffled Cabinet but by 15 May prices will have risen by 9.8 per cent in the shops, just four months after the new Taoiseach took office. Figures released last week by the Central Statistics Office show that the £ in the pocket of the housewife and ordinary citizen is worth almost 4 per cent less than it was four months ago. For the quarter up to 15 May price rises are sure to leap by another 6 per cent. From a period scarcely three weeks before the new brush was to sweep clean up to 15 May there is certain to be an erosion of about 10 per cent in the spending power of the ordinary housewife.
One shudders to think what will happen if that is to be the pattern for the remainder of the year. There has not been as much as one note of concern in the budget about that situation, apart from the mealy-mouthed platitudes and appeals to workers to cut back on requests for increases in salary while the cost of basic foodstuffs and everything else is being allowed to soar through the roof. That is hypocrisy and double-think and it is doomed to fail.
The people of this country would be willing to respond to the demand and the requests of leadership, would be willing to tighten their belts in tune with a Government who really meant business, and would be willing—as they have been in the 50 years history of the country—to wear the hair shirt if they could be convinced that there was sincerity behind the request. The only answer to the figures produced by the Central Statistics Office last week has been to throw cold water and to deny the undeniable, to say that black is white and for the Minister for Industry, Commerce and Tourism to pretend that inflation is going down. Maybe he believes that but the people out there do not and no one else does.
The increase in the 20 per cent VAT rate to 25 per cent will apply from May. It covers a wide range of items. One would assume that most of these would be in the luxury category but the definition of luxury leaves a little bit to be desired. These increases will apply to such luxuries as beds and bedding. I can think of many of my constituents who would not call a blanket a luxury and should not be asked to pay 25 per cent extra on it either. It will apply also to buttons for jackets and suits and coats. A button is a luxury as also is a zip; the implications of that would be laughable if there was not a serious economic or social side to the thing. Cutlery, delph and glass ware, detergents, and disinfectants are also included as luxuries. The housewife of today, cleaning her kitchen or bathroom, or maybe even the husband in these enlightened days, is now to find that detergents or disinfectants are luxuries. Educational supplies, excluding books and calculating machines, are luxuries and are going to be increased by 25 per cent in one jump. Joinery, kitchen equipment and utensils, light fittings, polishes, rugs, sacks, soap, stationery, wallpaper, wrapping materials and many more items are going to be increased by 25 per cent and we have then a Government who ask us all to sit back in some sort of spirit of national altruism or patriotism and to join with them in some massive assault on inflation. The people here are willing to do that but not in the face of hypocrisy of that level.
Let me remind this House that in 1977 when the Government opposite went hawking around the country trying, at any price, to get into power they promised nine different steps to deal with prices and they were as follows:
The Prices Commission will be carefully and thoroughly examined, and restructured and brought up to date, as it is widely believed to be inadvertently protecting inefficient firms and in itself to be incapable of proper investigation of many applications made to it. Frequently these are for far more than the firm really needs and the increase granted is often for more than the firm ever expects.
Will the Minister tell me if anything has been done about this promise or about the allegations, scurrilous in essence, levelled against the National Prices Commission at the time? The second step was that,
Government policy must be directed towards discouraging increased costs and prices in all areas where it has control or influence. The policy has been absent in the last four years.
The Government have complete control in relation to VAT but put it up by 25 per cent on luxuries such as soap and disinfectants. The third major promise was to
Investigate middlemen's margins in areas where there is an inordinate difference in the price obtained by the producer for certain products and the price paid by the household for the same, e.g. fish, vegetables etc.
We are all waiting for this investigative approach to middlemen's margins. I do not think it will ever come because there are far too many middlemen far too close to those who would be apparantly purporting to set about the investigation. We were to have
Full dissemination, at least once a week, to radio, television and newspapers of comparative prices of the most frequently purchased consumer goods in supermarkets etc., in different parts of the country.
That was a very laudable aim. The only step that was taken in that regard was to reduce the amount of advertising of increases in the media. Another categorical assurance has been cynically discarded and, it is hoped by the Government, forgotten about. We were to have
Control by legislation, in the interest of the consumer, of monopolies in particular, and of take-overs and mergers where relevant.
We were to have the abolition of
the seven day rule arising out of the outer UK zone, in respect of fuel price increases, as there is no price control at all under the present system.
We were to have a full investigation of
why Northern Ireland prices are less (apart from tax reasons) than prices in the Republic for the identical product from the same supplier and the same factory.
We were told seriously that
Fianna Fáil regard price control as an important matter and will therefore revert to the position where a Member of the Government is responsible for it and for dealing with the underlying causes of inflation.
The fact that a member of the Government is responsible is simply not solace enough. It would be reasonable for the housewife to assume that the responsibility would be accepted and responded to by some sort of appropriate action. We have a Minister responsible for it but that seems to be the end of it. We were told also as an after-thought that
The accounting procedures of the ESB will be examined and brought up to date with a view to reducing the price of electricity.
If most of these points were not essentially somewhat tragic and essentially denigratory of the whole parliamentary and electoral process they would be laughable because every one of them was quite clearly nothing more than a cynical manipulation of the will and the voting intention of the electorate and every one of them has failed to elicit the promised Government response nearly three years into Government on the central issue of the day and the central issue of the budget which is inflation and the rampant increases for the housewife and for the consumer generally. There is not one word about them. Indeed, worse than that, if anything can be worse than it, is that not merely are we to grovel in shame at the absolute reluctance and failure of the Government to carry out the programme they committed themselves to but we are to find ourselves very soon, on 15 May, at the bottom of the European league when it comes to inflation, lower even than the lowliest. The figures from the Central Statistics Office show that the overall consumer prices which rose by 3.8 per cent in the £ during the three months to mid-February and will rise by a further 6 per cent up to 15 May will therefore result in a total increase of 15.5 per cent during the year. This puts Ireland well up in the EEC league table. Only Britain, with 17.2 per cent, and Italy, with 18.8 per cent outrank us, but with the budget prices increases which have to be added to that we will dominate the shameful position of being the lowest of the low, a country which demographically is small enough to manage properly, which by virtue of its healthy agricultural product and output could undoubtedly commit itself to sustaining basic foodstuffs and basic food requisites for its domestic population substantially to impact in a very real way on food prices which other countries cannot do.
The Government then want the trade union movement and the worker to join with them in what in itself is commendable, an attempt by all of us to accept that there are no easy options and that we have been living prosperously. If there is honesty in this House, it must be admitted that the major impetus in that direction in the last two-and-a-half years was the promise to deliver on this package of promises. Unfortunately it was the cheaper and the easier promises that were pursued in the initial stages. I would agree that we should all join to try to bring this country out of the prices and inflation spiral in which it now is, but much more genuine efforts than the accountancy exercises of the budget will be called for if that is to be the case. The trade union movement see the writing on the wall. Mr. Ruairí Roberts, the General Secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, commenting on the Minister's statement on Sunday on the radio, clearly indicated that they would take a tough stand in any future national understanding if there was to be any suggestion of dismissing or dropping any of the points in such understanding. There would have to be clear index-linking built into it so as to safeguard people against the actions of a Government bankrupt of ideas and nearly bankrupt of money.
The firm belief of my party and of any rational, observant member of the public is that prices will increase in the coming 12 months in a way we have never seen before, not this time because of any international recession but because of Government mismanagement, because of borrowing which was not used for the right purposes and a settling for the middle course on the question of whether borrowing should be cut back more or less. The answer to all this is that there were massive increases in social welfare payments. I do not pretend to be an expert on poverty in this country but I have had an opportunity to discuss the issues with people who are responsible in this area. They assure me they do not see any comfort or solace in that proposition.
In December 1969 average industrial earnings were £16.10 and in the same period the old age contributory pension was £8.50. Since then there has been an increase of 400 per cent in average industrial earnings. By how much has the old age pension been increased with this massive reformation in attitudes to the poor and the elderly, this new frontier in Christian conscience and the emphasis on human rights, particularly of the old, which we are alleged now to have breached? Although average industrial earnings increased by a total of 219 per cent since the early seventies, in the same period the old age contributory pension increased by 210 per cent—it actually fell—and the non-contributory old age pension increased by 226 per cent, or remained static.
If Members are interested in listening to any part of what I have to say, I would ask them to pay particular attention to this very important point. Members of this House, commentators and economists use the Consumer Price Index as the indicator of economic and social well-being, but that is unfair when dealing with the 400,000 people in the social welfare category. These people do not purchase most of the elements which make up the CPI. A food and shelter index would be more appropriate for them and would show a starker figure. In 1979 unemployment assistance constituted 45 per cent of average industrial earnings, while in 1970 the same benefit constituted 47 per cent of average industrial earnings. The old age contributory pension in 1970 represented 53 per cent of average industrial earnings and the figure today is 40 per cent; there has been a fall of 13 per cent. The old age non-contributory pension in 1970 was 23 per cent of average industrial earnings; today the figure is 21 per cent.
Can anyone stand up and pretend that we have any kind of major improvement in relation to the deprived and disadvantaged when these are the statistical facts? The truth is we cannot. When we take, on the one hand, the unchecked price increases which will be the issue of the day and the central issue in the next election and, on the other hand, the contraction in some cases and certainly the lack of any real improvement in the ratio of social welfare benefits to other economic indices, we see a clear picture emerging of a Government who are heedless of those who are not strongly represented and who are essentially concerned with looking after the stronger in our society. Even if that were economically sound, which it is not, it is a foolish approach if we genuinely want to pursue harmony and stability. Sooner or later the implications will break and there will be a growing militancy among people who are hard pressed and are increasingly taunted and provoked by a Government who give patronage to those at one end of the social spectrum and also by the consumer movement which shows such people that apparently a large section of what others enjoy is never to be theirs.
I do not believe any one Government or Minister has the answer to these questions, but it is in that fundamental context that social justice will be created. There is room for us all to give a great deal more and then the pleas of the Taoiseach, on his rare appearances, and of his Cabinet for more effort and input, more basic patriotism, would get a response. In terms of economic strategy this budget is failing. I say this with no sense of triumphalism or jubilation. It is very sad. The interests of the country are bigger than the interests of any political party; and many of us wished, and still wish, the Government to succeed in achieving targets for the sake of the people. Reading through the budget statement, one sees a clear attempt to stave off, to appease one side, to hold all ends against the middle and to play for time, whether it be time in which to decide on a general election or time needed to regroup and restrengthen one's relatively demoralised or divided position within a Government. Real leadership is needed, with cut and thrust and the ability to motivate and inspire people. People are waiting for such leadership and will respond if the measures proposed are seen to be about creating economic, industrial and social peace in the community.
The time will shortly come—many of us believe it is here already—when we must look again at the unquestioned and assumed definition of economic growth, which is apparently the clarion call of so much political thinking today. We must rethink our ideas about economic growth inherited from thinkers of the past and the infinite push towards increasing expenditure in many areas and towards increasing productivity, which has a very narrow definition at present related to a very narrow range of goods and services. It will be difficult and those who will seek a new definition of economic growth will base it not on a growth mentality but on an attitude to society which believes that stability is an important virtue, that economic growth sometimes breeds instability, breeds unnecessary waste, unnecessary competitiveness, unnecessary social injustic and unnecessary division. Those people who will talk in this way will run a risk. They will be accused of being halfhearted, of being soft in certain respects or of not being committed to job creation. I have never heard a Minister raise a question or express a doubt as to whether the kind of jobs that would be created were worthy of the people whom it was hoped to slot into those jobs. We must inject a great deal more of the qualitative approach than has been the case up to now. In reality a budgetary statement is one not of fiscal policy but of social policy, a statement which means much more than the figure at the bottom right hand corner and which means a good deal more in terms of the quality of life, of ensuring that everybody has some place in the sun and share in whatever is going.
I do not wish to end on a negative note. Consequently there are some options that I should like to put before the House. There are major challenges ahead but these challenges can be confronted and dealt with in a positive way not only by the Government but by everybody else in the House as well as by those outside it. We must not continue to proceed on the basis of divisions in society, on the basis of appeasing the strongest lobby. What about those who are not in a position to march outside the gates of Leinster House? Are we to jettison such people? If the record of the last decade in relation to statistical facts of social welfare payments as percentages of other economic indicators is any indication, the people to whom I refer have been jettisoned. While we do sufficient to contain them we have never asked such fundamental questions as why should a man who is going into retirement or why should somebody who is jobless be expected to live suddenly and dramatically on a mere fraction, a quarter or a third or perhaps up to a half, of the amount that everybody else needs to live on? Are not the obligations of the pensioners as great as those of anybody else? Those who say that the money is not available to do any better miss the point. The point is that there is a need for new thinking and for agreeing then on new policies arising out of that thinking. Those policies, if the Government have the courage to say so, mean that some will have less in terms of the share of growth than they have had in the past but that others will benefit disproportionately more than has been the case up to now. There are strong economic and social arguments for such policies but there is the more fundamental argument, the argument which relates to basic human rights and to the need for clear evidence of increasing concern about justice in the community.
If we are to work towards a stable and economic social environment we must do a good deal more than the accountancy exercises which budgets have become. Sooner or later some of the changes we must make will involve minimum disruption of ecological processes, maximum conservation of materials and energy, an economy of stop rather than of flow, a population in which recruitment equals loss and a social system that the individual can enjoy instead of feeling restricted by the first three conditions. The achievement of these policies may come about by any or all of the following operations which I suggest may be the kind that we must consider. The first is a control operation whereby environmental disruption is reduced as much as possible by technical means. The next is a freeze operation in which present trends are halted. These will include either a freeze or an attempted freeze in many areas of basic essentials. We must consider a systematic substitution by which the most dangerous components of these trends are replaced by technological substitutes the effect of which would be less deleterious in the short term but which in the long term would be increasingly effective. We need to consider systematic substitution whereby these technological substitutes are replaced by natural or self-regulating substitutes, those which employ without undue disturbance the normal processes of the ecosphere and which consequently are likely to be sustainable for long periods of time. We must consider the invention, promotion and application of alternative technologies which are energy and materials conservative and which because they are designed for a relatively closed economic community are likely to disrupt only minimally ecological processes. We are talking about what has become known as intermediate technology.
We must talk also about the decentralisation of policy and economy at all levels and the formation of communities small enough to be reasonably self regulating and self-supporting with education for such communities. Perhaps other changes are necessary too. But we need a different kind of society. If I were to sum up the title that I would like to see applied to the Government's economic programme it would be "A Better Way of Life", not merely the simple catchcry which I consider to be about to be open to question whether it should be redundant of economic growth at all costs. We are only one small part of a global process, of a global village that is shrinking all the time. Not only have we responsibilities to our own people but to people in other countries and to people anywhere who have a lot less than we have. The share of the western part of the northern hemisphere which we have been enjoying for so long has been achieved and is continuing to be achieved at the cost of enormous deprivation in other parts of the world. In that regard there is a challenge, too, and I am confident that if that challenge were projected properly our young people would be motivated into responding. I am confident that, as has been the case always, our people will work and will strive if they are given honest leadership and the kind of disciplined patriotic approach which is necessary to the management of our economy and, very importantly, of society. While there are many omissions so far as this budget is concerned, I wish the Government well in regard to it for the sake of all sections of the community.