asked the Minister for Energy the earliest date by which, on the basis of the information currently available to him, it would be possible to have oil off our shores available for commercial purposes.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Offshore Oil.
29.
The date by which oil off our shores will become available for commercial purposes will depend, in the first instance, on how soon an accumulation of oil large enough to support commercial production is identified.
At present the best prospect of a commercial discovery would appear to be in the Porcupine Basin off our west coast where significant flows of oil have been tested over the past three drilling seasons. However, further drilling will be necessary to determine whether an accumulation large enough to support commercial production is present in the basin. There is no way in which one can predict exactly how much further drilling will be required.
If a commercial discovery is verified or located, the date by which oil will actually be brought ashore will depend upon the location of the discovery and other factors, including the water depth in which it lies. In the Porcupine, for instance, the great depth of water and the harsh environmental conditions would almost certainly require special production techniques designed and tested to withstand such conditions. In this situation it would be prudent to allow, say, four years for the field to come on-stream. In complex circumstances the period could be longer. A discovery in less hostile conditions — the Celtic Sea or Fastnet Basin, for example — could possibly be brought onstream in a shorter period. Allowing for the necessary appraisal drilling, however, it is unlikely that, even on the most optimistic assumptions, a discovery in these areas in 1981 could be declared commercial before 1983.
Thus, while one can never be absolutely certain in these matters, I think it is reasonable to say that, even given favourable circumstances, it is unlikely that any oil could be brought ashore before the mid-eighties at the earliest.
Would the Minister not agree that his reply was on the pessimistic side and that one of the major factors influencing the pay back time of offshore development is the price of oil, and that if the price of oil continues to rise at its present rate, developments which were not commercial will become commercial and ones which were marginally commercial will become very much more so?
Obviously price is a relevant factor in this whole area. I do not feel I was pessimistic. I was realistic.