asked the Minister for Finance how much of the £45 million revenue buoyancy which he mentioned in the budget statement was collected during the first quarter of 1982.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Revenue for First Quarter, 1982.
15.
(Clare): The tax revenue buoyancy provision of £45 million was based on a comparison of the likely impact over the year as a whole of the March 25 budgetary measures and the budget proposals of 27 January. As this additional tax revenue buoyancy represents only 1 per cent of total tax revenue, it is not possible to identify it separately from other receipts on a quarterly basis. I am confident however that the £45 million estimate is soundly based.
Is the Minister aware that the six-monthly returns indicate a negative out-turn in relation to income tax, Post Office receipts and excise duty to the tune of approximately £55 million?
(Clare): There is no reason to believe that the buoyancy will not be there at the end of the year. As we are all aware, the delay in bringing in the budget was a factor where the yields from the budget were concerned. I am confident the £45 million estimate is soundly based.
Is the Minister saying that, in spite of the fact that there has been a negative buoyancy in the first half of the year of £55 million, he now expects there will be a positive buoyancy not only of £45 million in the second half of the year but of £100 million in order to produce the nett £45 million he is looking for? Will the Minister not agree that since we are down in receipts by £55 million we will need a buoyancy of £100 million in the second half of the year in order to get to the figure the Minister had in the budget?
(Clare): What the Deputy has said may be so, but it is not going to change the buoyancy figure in the budget.
What buoyancy?
Will the Minister not agree that even a cursory examination of Exchequer returns in relation to the projected revenue at year end for excise duty, Post Office receipts and for income tax show that far from there being a buoyancy of £45 million there is a deficit of £55 million? The indications are in relation to income tax of a minus £40 million and in relation to Post Office receipts of approximately £7 million and how can that amount be made up either in income tax or in excise duty? Having regard to the state of the tourist season, how can it work out at a figure of £45 million in terms of buoyancy?
(Clare): It has been stated by the Minister that there has been a slippage and we will correct that. With regard to the tourist season, I would point out that that season has not progressed very far in the year yet. We admit there has been a slippage and we will move to correct that as the year goes on.
The remaining questions will appear on tomorrow's Order Paper.