asked the Taoiseach if, arising from reports that emigration has again commenced at a substantial rate, the Central Statistics Office is taking any steps to monitor the flow of people from the country.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Emigration Statistics.
3.
, Dún Laoghaire): The Central Statistics Office have advised me that their best estimate of emigration in the period April 1981 to April 1984 is an average of 6,000 a year. Again their advice is that the best estimate suggests that emigration in the year to April 1984 was less than in the year to April 1983.
In drawing up the national plan a group of population experts, drawn from inside and outside the Civil Service, was set up to advise on population forecasts over the plan period. Their advice was that emigration in the years 1981 to 1986 would be on average in the range 5,000 to 10,000 a year.
In the light of this I must reject the Deputy's contention that emigration has commenced at a substantial rate. Clearly the Government are not happy that there is emigration. Before, and in the national plan they brought in special measures such as the social employment scheme, the enterprise allowance scheme and the alternance training scheme to reduce the pressure on anybody towards emigration.
The Central Statistics Office have further advised me that statistics relating to international migration are generally derived from records based on administrative controls or procedures governing the movements of persons across national boundaries. No such administrative controls which could provide a measure of emigration exist for movement between this country and Great Britain.
The Central Statistics Office are in contact on a regular basis with their opposite numbers in Britain to establish the possibilities of using, for example, social security information to estimate emigration to mainland Britain. To date they tell me the results are disappointing. Again the Central Statistics Office tell me that the numbers contacting various Irish societies and Irish centres in Britain were quite small and would be a very inadequate basis for measuring emigration.
The Central Statistics Office have told me that they are re-examining the possibility of deriving reliable estimates of emigration from sample inquiries of passenger movement by sea and air. The essential problem with this approach is that the Central Statistics Office are attempting through any sample inquiry to catch the very small permanent inward and outward flows from the total passenger movement by sea and air of six million per year.
The Central Statistics Office tell me that they are exploring all other possibilities for reliable measures of migration. In particular, they are including a new question in the annual sample labour force survey for 1985 to obtain information on people who have emigrated in the past 12 months.
I thank the Minister for his extensive reply. Is he satisfied about the accuracy of the figures coming from the CSO, having regard to the errors made in past years? Is he satisfied with the methods used to produce the figures? When will the next census be held?
(Dún Laoghaire): I am quite satisfied that the CSO are doing everything possible to try to get proper figures which will be of benefit to everybody. All other steps possible will be taken to try to get correct estimates.
I asked about the date of the next census.
(Dún Laoghaire): That is a separate question.
Will the Minister confirm or deny that the latest approximate figures available in the CSO are nearer to 30,000 people for 1984 and that the figures which he has read out are the figures they have from official returns which do not take into account people who left the country in 1984 for the United States, the Middle East and several other regions throughout the world? Does he agree that the figures do not include those who left on travel and temporary visas?
(Dún Laoghaire): Anybody who left on a travel visa naturally would not be taken into account in these figures because he would not be emigrating. The best figures available show that emigration between 1981 and 1984 was at an average of 6,000 per year. The best estimate shows that the figure for emigration in 1984 was less than for 1983.
I was Minister of State with responsibility for the CSO, and I know, and the Minister should confirm for the House, that the official figures include all those who officially emigrate, but today people are leaving with temporary visas and holiday and travel visas. The Minister should have included these figures which, I believe, Government officials have put at 30,000 for last year.
(Dún Laoghaire): The Deputy, as Minister responsible previously for this office will appreciate that the data are based on facts and figures, not on suggestions.
Will the Minister say if he was dealing purely with emigration to Britain and not to any other country?
(Dún Laoghaire): Not totally to Britain, but our information suggests that the bulk of our emigration was to Great Britain.
The sooner the CSO wake up the better.
Is the Minister aware of the large number of young people who have been emigrating to the US in the past few months on so-called holiday visas? Is he aware that those young people are working illegally in the US and are therefore not protected in the event of accidents, injuries or bad health, and are putting themselves at very great risk? What interest are the Government taking in protecting those young people in the event of misfortune befalling them? They had to emigrate because of unemployment here and are now illegally in the US.
That is a separate question.
Is the Minister aware that a survey carried out by The Irish Post in the last few weeks states conclusively that the numbers who emigrated to Great Britain since the Coalition took office total 35,000 and that they will reach 50,000 by the end of the year? Will he agree that the expectation of stabilising unemployment by the Government is based on the false assumption of a continuing high rate of emigration?
(Dún Laoghaire): There are no facts to show that the figures quoted by the Deputy are correct.