asked the Minister for Social Welfare if she is satisfied that sufficient moneys have been allowed in this year's Social Welfare Estimate to finance the cost of the growing unemployment numbers in 1986.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Social Welfare Estimate.
22.
The amount provided for unemployment payments in the 1986 Estimate is £688.81 million. There is provision for a weekly average of 237,000 on the register of unemployed and I am satisfied that the amount provided will be adequate.
Does the Minister recall that last year we warned the Departments of Social Welfare and Finance that they had not allocated enough money to allow for a potential growth in unemployment during the year? Is there any likelihood this year that the same problem will arise? Last year, the Department had to introduce at short notice a Supplementary Estimate for £50 million, £40 million of which was to pay for additional unemployment claims because in January last year the Estimate did not allow for an increase in unemployment? There was a mistake, therefore, involving £40 million. Does the Minister believe that unemployment has been arrested and that he has allowed enough money to cover the year?
The figures are based on a likely figure of 237,000 for the whole year. On 3 January last the figure was 239,867. At the end of January it was 240,405 and in February the figure was 238,556. The weekly average at the end of March was 237,000. The live register should continue to fall in the coming months and we assume therefore an average of 237,000 in 1986 as a whole.
On 28 March this year the live register showed 237,000 of whom 131,000 were long term unemployed, representing 66 per cent of the total unemployed. Does the Minister agree that this Government have made such sharp mistakes in their Estimate figures that it is most likely the unemployment numbers will continue to grow? On 27 March 1981 there were 126,000 on the unemployment register; on 26 March 1982 we had 148,000; on 25 March 1983 we had 189,000; on 30 March 1984 the figure was 214,000; and on 28 March 1985 we had 230,000. This year the figure is 237,000. I think of the projections in the now infamous document Building on Reality— we should have a public burning of it some day — in which it was projected that the unemployment figure this year would be 210,000 — 27,000 wrong. Is the Minister absolutely happy that enough money has been allocated this year to cater for the unemployed?
The figure of 237,000 is based on sound projections. Nobody can be certain——
I hope the figures are sounder than last year.
The figure I have given the Deputy for the end of March may be substantially reduced in the months ahead.
The Minister said his projections were made on the soundest possible authority. If they made a mistake of 27,000 last year in that so-called well researched document they are likely to do it again. Is he aware that for every thousand people unemployed the cost to the State is £2.7 million? In view of the mistake in Building on Reality of 27,000, the amount is £65 million. I would not have the Government running my business.
The decrease in January and February last was 1,849 compared with an increase of 155 in January and February 1985. On the basis of the actual out-turn for the first quarter and assuming a similar pattern in the coming months, the estimated average of 237,000 over the whole year is reasonable.