asked the Taoiseach if he will give the figures for emigration for each of the past four years and the destination of people leaving the country; if he will give a breakdown of the numbers leaving each county; and if he will now set up a monitoring system to provide accurate information on the numbers of people leaving the country at the present time.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Emigration Statistics.
3.
(Dún Laoghaire): I propose to circulate a statement giving the information requested by the Deputy in so far as it is available.
Following is the statement:
The only reliable estimates of migration are those for net migration between successive censuses of population, that is the difference between the inward and outward flows in the period. The estimate for a period is obtained as the difference between the actual intercensal population change and the natural increase, total births less total deaths.
In the five year period between the 1981 and 1986 censuses, births exceeded deaths by 169,000. According to the provisional 1986 census of population figures, the actual increase in population in the same period was 94,000. The difference of 75,000 is taken as an estimate of net emigration, that is, the extent to which outward migration in the 1981-1986 period was greater than inward migration.
As indicated in the published Preliminary Report on the 1986 Census, following the availability of the provisional population figures and a review of the various indicators of population changes since 1981, population estimates for mid-April 1982-1985 were revised slightly. Using these revised population estimates in conjunction with appropriate 12 monthly data for births and deaths, the estimated net outflow for each year (to mid-April) of the intercensal period is estimated as follows:
|
Year to mid-April |
Estimated Net Outflow |
|
1981-1982 |
1,000 |
|
1982-1983 |
14,000 |
|
1983-1984 |
9,000 |
|
1984-1985 |
20,000 |
|
1985-1986 |
31,000 |
|
Total 1981-1986 |
75,000 |
Information in respect of the destination of emigrants is not available. In the absence of comprehensive documentary or other administrative procedures relating to the movement of persons into and out of the State, there is no way of determining the actual number of inward and outward migrants in any period or the destination of those emigrating.
In respect of county population movements, estimates can be made using the method already indicated. By relating the intercensal population changes for a county with corresponding data for births and deaths, an estimate of net migration can be compiled for that county. In the context of the county estimates it should be clearly understood that the net migration figure reflects movements into and from other counties as well as movements into and out of the State.
The following table shows the estimated net migration (inward less outward) in the 1981-1986 intercensal period for counties and county boroughs. In the context of the county estimates it should be clearly understood that the net migration figure reflects movements into and from other counties as well as movements into and out of the State.
|
County or County Borough |
Estimated Net Migration |
|
LEINSTER |
|
|
Carlow |
1,413 |
|
Dublin Co. and Co. Borough* |
37,220 |
|
Kildare |
2,528 |
|
Kilkenny |
1,020 |
|
Laoighis |
499 |
|
Longford |
821 |
|
Louth |
1,634 |
|
Meath |
1,557 |
|
Offaly |
1,469 |
|
Westmeath |
1,817 |
|
Wexford |
1,666 |
|
Wicklow |
1,319 |
|
MUNSTER |
|
|
Clare |
30 |
|
Cork Co. and Co. Borough |
7,586 |
|
Cork Co. Borough |
8,150 |
|
Cork |
564 |
|
Kerry |
2,562 |
|
Limerick Co. and Co. Borough |
5,203 |
|
Limerick Co. Borough |
7,247 |
|
Limerick |
2,044 |
|
Tipperary N.R. |
2,061 |
|
Tipperary S.R. |
2,309 |
|
Waterford Co. and Co. Borough |
1,579 |
|
Waterford Co. Borough |
618 |
|
Waterford |
961 |
|
CONNACHT |
|
|
Galway Co. and Co. Borough* |
1,854 |
|
Leitrim |
892 |
|
Mayo |
3,146 |
|
Roscommon |
798 |
|
Sligo |
1,226 |
|
ULSTER (part of) |
|
|
Cavan |
1,973 |
|
Donegal |
997 |
|
Monaghan |
1,002 |
|
State total |
75,313 |
* As information on Births and Deaths cannot be compiled retrospectively for the new Dublin Counties and for Galway County Borough (as defined in the Local Government (Reorganisation) Act, 1985) the natural increase and net migration for the 1981-1986 intercensal period are not available in respect of these areas.
As there are not comprehensive documentary or other administrative procedures relating to the movement of persons out of the State, there is no way of determining the composition of the flow of outward bound travellers which amount to some 3½ million passenger journeys each year.
On the advice given to me by the Central Statistics Office on the setting up of a monitoring system, I am satisfied that, especially in view of the problems associated with surveying among the large number of people entering and leaving this country, the comparatively small number who are actually permanent migrants, the accuracy of the results that would be obtained could well not justify the cost of any monitoring system that would be acceptable.