(Limerick East) asked the Taoiseach if his attention has been drawn to the fact that on the basis of the returns from firms covering three-quarters of the industrial work force, the Central Statistics Office in its quarterly industrial inquiry found that employment in Irish Industry declined from 205,700 in March 1987 to 199,500 in March 1988; if his attention has been drawn to the fact that this is contrary to the trend indicated in the Central Statistic Office's labour force survey; if he has requested the Central Statistics Office to give the reason their surveys are showing divergent trends in industrial employment over the past year; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Industrial Employment.
11.
The two surveys mentioned by the Deputy are of fundamentally different types.
The employment estimates derived from the Quarterly Industrial Inquiry relate to persons engaged in industrial establishments with three or more persons engaged. They are based on the trend shown by direct returns from establishments accounting for over 85 per cent of the employment involved. An industrial establishment is defined as a specific industrial activity conducted at a particular location. The inquiry is restricted to the total number of workers directly engaged in the particular industrial activity including those providing support services (e.g. managerial, clerical, sales and transport staff, etc.). Other persons engaged at the same location in non-industrial activities (e.g. wholesale factoring) are excluded as are self-employed persons working for the enterprise on a contract or fee basis.
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a large sample household survey carried out on an annual basis in April-May and covering about 45,000 households with some 150,000 persons. Information is obtained from direct household interviews by field staff. In principle any formal or informal activity which may be outside the scope of the Quarterly Industrial Inquiry is covered by the survey. In the LFS all persons at work are coded by sector on the basis of the descriptions they give of the nature of the activity conducted at their place of employment.
Because of its wider scope, the level of the LFS estimates of industrial employment is always above that of the Quarterly Industrial Inquiry. Differences in trend which arise from time to time can be attributed to a number of different factors such as:
(1) a different trend in the employment levels of those small establishments excluded from the Quarterly Industrial Inquiry compared with larger establishments;
(2) own-account work for larger industrial firms of a contract/fee basis becoming more widespread;
(3) sampling variability or response errors in both the LFS and the Quarterly Industrial Inquiry;
(4) the unavoidable lag in the inclusion of some new industrial establishments on the register used for the industrial inquiries.
(5) Government employment/training schemes and voluntary rehabilitation schemes may impact differently in the two surveys.
(Limerick East): I would like to thank the Minister of State for his very lengthy reply. I did not ask the Taoiseach to explain the different levels of industrial employment. It is quite obvious that two different surveys will show different levels of industrial employment if they are organised on a different basis; but it is extraordinary that the two surveys should show different trends and I would like to ask the Minister of State if he is happy with the situation where one survey supplied by the Central Statistics Office shows an increase in industrial employment of approximately 3 per cent and the other survey shows a decrease in industrial employment of approximately 3 per cent?
There are two different types of survey involved here. The first survey referred to, the Quarterly Industrial Inquiry, relates specifically to certain types of industry which employ three or more persons. The Labour Force Survey refers to smaller enterprises employing two or less and it is also conducted on an overall basis taking into consideration all aspects of every type of employment. Hence there is a very obvious difference here. Both surveys are entirely different in so far as they show the number of small businesses increasing as a result of the present economic climate, and this is something we should all be very pleased about.
(Limerick East): I would like to thank the Minister again for the information supplied; but we all know the surveys were conducted on different bases and this explains the different levels of industrial employment thrown up by each individual survey. It does not explain contrary trends. I would like to ask again what I asked in the question. Has the Taoiseach requested the Central Statistics Office to make these surveys compatible or to explain why the trends are different?
The Deputy's attention has been drawn to the difference in the figures shown in both surveys. As I have already explained, they are two entirely different surveys and the first one, the Quarterly Industrial Inquiry, does not take into consideration persons engaged in non-industrial activities such as wholesale factoring or small businesses employing two people or fewer. The Labour Force Survey does that, hence the difference. It is very simple and I believe I have answered the question very adequately.
(Limerick East): Is the Taoiseach happy to base industrial policy on surveys that absolutely contradict each other as to the trends in manufacturing industry?
They are compatible. There are more in the bigger industries and fewer in the smaller industries.
(Limerick East): You missed the real question.
You missed the point of the statistics.