asked the Minister for Finance the Government's forecast for the number unemployed at the end of December 1989.
Ceisteanna — Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment Forecast.
18.
An average of 232,000 is projected for the live register in 1989. The Deputy will appreciate that, as the live register trend fluctuates throughout the year, it would be unrealistic to attempt a projection for any particular month. However, it is expected that the end of year live register figure will be close to the average of 232,000.
Would the Minister state what that will represent in terms of European average at the end of the year, or indeed of the average for the year? Is the Minister in a position to give hope to the unemployed? When does he expect we will see a significant decrease in unemployment? His colleague, the Minister for Labour, has suggested that 1989 would see a significant decrease. Given the Minister's reply, that does not seem to be the case.
1989 should be a better year for employment. The post-budget forecast has projected an increase in total employment of 13,000 in 1989. I have always said that, unfortunately, job creation is always the last link in the chain of economic recovery, but I would expect that 1989 would be a better year.
Could the Minister give the House, the unemployed and the young people of the country some indication as to when we might expect unemployment numbers to come down to a negligible figure? When does he see that occurring?
Deputy Mitchell is talking about negligible figures in unemployment. He knows as well as I do that that is not in the very short term. He knows as well as I do the increase that takes place in our labour force every year. It is hoped that with an average 3 per cent growth last year and 3 per cent projected for this year, there will be an increase of 13,000 more people at work this year. This takes into account the number coming into the labour force, as well as everything else. Certainly it is moving in the right direction. The Government's economic policies are geared towards a movement in that direction.
(Limerick East): It is clear that the average figure of 232,000 on the live register could vary upwards or downwards, depending on the number of new jobs created. It could also vary upwards or downwards depending on the number of people who emigrate. If more than expected emigrate, the figures will come down and if fewer, the figures will go up. On what estimate of emigration is the live register figure of 232,000 people based?
Figures can vary up and down as unforeseen circumstances occur. In any given month there can be new jobs in industry, some industries shedding jobs, closures, strikes, and all sorts of fluctuations. We operate on the average, but at given stages it can be higher or lower during the year. We are talking about estimates. That is our best estimate. Some people would say that it is higher than some of the other forecasts that have been given. I would refer the Deputy to the other forecasts, some of which were pre-budget. Ours is post-budget. It takes into account the input from the Structural Funds and the post-budget situation in relation to tax deductions and social welfare payments. We forecast the position and let us hope that we can do better.
(Limerick East): The Minister must not have heard my question. I asked him on what estimate of emigration the average live register figure of 232,000 people is based.
A question regarding emigration seems to be a separate issue.
(Limerick East): What is the estimate regarding emigration which gives rise to that figure? Obviously there must be some estimate of emigration.
That is deserving of a separate question.
(Limerick East): It is not a separate question.
If the Deputy puts down a question I will give him the answer.
(Limerick East): The Minister is dodging the issue. Is it based on 50,000 emigrants?
I have called Deputy Gay Mitchell.
I certainly would not make up the figures on emigration in the way the Deputy's party did in Government——
(Interruptions.)
(Limerick East): We are entitled to information.
This is leading to unnecessary disorder. I am calling Deputy Gay Mitchell.
(Limerick East): The Minister has refused to answer a simple question.
I have no control over such matters. I am calling on Deputy Gay Mitchell for a final supplementary.
(Limerick East): It is normal practice to——
Deputy Noonan, I have been on my feet for some considerable time and I know you will not ignore the Chair.
(Limerick East): I am sorry for aggravating you, a Cheann Comhairle, but the Minister did not answer my question.
If a Deputy is dissatisified with a Minister's reply he or she has a remedy. I am calling on Deputy Gay Mitchell. Deputy Noonan must resume his seat.
(Limerick East): I wish to raise this matter on the Adjournment.
I will communicate with the Deputy.
(Limerick East): This is a very serious matter and the Minister is sitting there smiling.
Do not lecture me. There would be no country if the Deputy's lot were still in office.
(Interruptions.)
Deputy Noonan is persistently interrupting from a seated position which is particularly disorderly. Deputy Gay Mitchell without interruption.
(Interruptions.)
Will the Minister state the number of unemployed at the end of December 1988 for comparison purposes? Will he, for heaven's sake, give some hope to the people by letting us know when there will be a substantial decrease in unemployment?
I will not allow a further extension of this question.
I am not a pessimist like some of the Opposition Deputies. I will send the information to the Deputy.