Vol. 398 No. 6
22 Mr. Taylor asked the Minister for Finance if he has undertaken or commissioned any studies into the implications of economic and monetary union for Ireland; the steps which will have to be taken to prepare for such union; if he will publish the findings of any such studies already available to him; if he has requested the ESRI or NESC to report on these matters; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Discussions on economic and monetary union within the European Community are centred on the Delors report which envisages a three stage transition towards union. The first stage, which is due to begin on 1 July, will involve completion of the Single Market, improved economic and social cohesion, greater monetary co-operation, improved surveillance of economic and budgetary policies and participation of all currencies in the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS.
Discussion has started on the timing and content of the later stages, which will lead ultimately to full union and an intergovernmental conference to prepare for this is due to convene in December. There are differing opinions about the best approach to full integration and the structures that will be needed to achieve this objective. It is too early to predict the likely outcome of the conference. There is strong majority support, however, for the general approach put forward in the Delors report, including the establishment of a European central bank, permanently fixed exchange rates and convergence of economic policies.
As there are no proposals on the later stages of EMU, nor on its final shape, before Council as yet, the question of a study of their implications does not arise. The Deputy is, no doubt, aware of the NESC report, published last year, on "Ireland in the European Community" which is a useful input to our position in continuing negotiations on EMU.
Would the Minister not agree that it would be particularly important at this early stage when finality has not been reached in the discussions on the Delors report that this is the very time it would be best to undertake studies on the implications of economic and monetary union so that in the course of the negotiations to take place this State may have an input based on a detailed study and assessment of the situation and that the Minister and his officials will be at a disadvantage if he does not have the benefit of indepth studies from the ESRI, NESC or other appropriate bodies?
As I have already indicated we are constantly involved in discussion and analysis at Community level in relation to the Presidency and, at our own level, in relation to our own studies that we are carrying out. We cannot, however, anticipate what kind of EMU will finally be decided on, if it is decided on at the end of the day. An intergovernmental conference will be called in December to look at the ways and means by which it will be approached by member states. There is more than one aspect of EMU around at the moment. It is even suggested that Britain may have another alternative paper to put to Council or maybe the intergovernmental conference in relation to what they see as their approach.
There is little doubt in any of our minds but that we will benefit from stage one because it brings with it improved economic and social cohesion, greater monetary co-operation, improved surveillance of economic and budgetary policies and participation of all currencies in the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS. That is part of stage one and to complete stage one Britain must join the ERM. We would all welcome that because that would bring stability.
In relation to stages two and three, it is premature to talk about evaluating what the repercussions might be until it becomes more clear what people are really talking about in relation to stages two and three and some member states have different views from others in relation to it.
