Dáil Éireann debate -
Thursday, 21 Feb 1991

Vol. 405 No. 5

Written Answers. - Farm Income Figures.

Jim Higgins

Question:

63 Mr. J. Higgins asked the Minister for Agriculture and Food his views on the accuracy of the recent figures issued by the Central Statistics Office regarding the decline in farm incomes; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

Minister for Agriculture and Food (Mr. O'Kennedy)

The Central Statistics Office produces two preliminary estimates and a final estimate for each year's agricultural output, input and income. The first preliminary estimate is published in early December. The second estimate is published in late January — early February. This second estimate is obviously based on more complete information than the first estimate. For instance, the preliminary indications from the December Livestock Enumertion are taken into account in the January-February estimate. The final estimate in July is made on the basis of the final figures for the previous year.

I am satisfied that the well established methodology employed by the CSO provides a broadly accurate picture of the overall development of output, input and income. As more complete information becomes available, it is likely that there will be some change each year as between the first and second preliminary estimates, as well as between the preliminary estimates and the final one. CSO's estimate in December 1990 was that aggregate farm income, income from self-employment and other trading incomes, in 1990 fell by 7.1 per cent by comparison to 1989. The February 1991 estimate was that aggregate farm income in 1990 fell by 5.1 per cent. This level of difference is well within the expected range of variation, particularly in view of the provisional nature of the basic data used and the sensitivity of the income estimate to relatively small adjustments to the larger output and input estimates.

The CSO figure for aggregate farm income does not take account of the cost of interest payable by agriculture. However, within its statement on output and income it provides separately an estimate of interest payable. There are a number of reasons why CSO does not adjust its estimate for aggregate farm income by the interest payable by agriculture to arrive at an income figure net of interest. Firstly, some of the interest payable relates to borrowings for non-agricultural purposes. In addition, interest received by farmers on moneys held in interest-bearing accounts are not taken into consideration.

Finally, CSO figures for aggregate farm income are always presented in nominal terms. Aggregate farm income data in real terms, i.e. net of inflation, may be derived by applying the appropriate price index published by CSO.

The CSO figures for changes in aggregate farm income for the last five years are as follows:

	% change
1986	–6.2
1987	+21.9
1988	+18.7
1989	+4.5
1990	–5.1