(Limerick East): Fine Gael rejects the Cahill rescue plan for Aer Lingus because it believes it will not work. If implemented as presented it will be a botched affair and in less than two years time we will be back in this House debating a further rescue plan which will inevitably close down Aer Lingus or confine its activities to that of a minor commuter air service. Aviation in Europe has developed on the basis of national carriers — Air France, Iberia, Lufthansa, KLM, Alitalia and so on. It is in this league table of national carriers that Aer Lingus had a proud place. These airlines became synonymous with national pride. They were a symbol of a country's sovereignty wherever they flew. Aer Lingus fulfilled a similar role in Ireland. Not only did it provide an efficient, courteous and good value service, but for generations of Irish people, especially our emigrants and tourists visiting our shores, the shamrock on the tail of the plane was synonymous with the national flag.
The days of the national carriers are over. There is now a web of new partnership arrangements in Europe and it is in this context that a commercially sound Aer Lingus must find its future. I will return to this theme later in my speech but first I would ask how such a proud company as Aer Lingus, in which the pride and money of Irish people was invested and in which a job would secure the future of any young man or woman in high status employment, could have sunk so low that now even in the speeches of Government Ministers and the Taoiseach, Aer Lingus has become synonymous with bad management, colossal losses, unsustainable debt and questionable work practices?
The descent into bankruptcy has been quite recent. Fine Gael, in partnership with the Labour Party in the 1982-87 Coalition, took on the task of restoring the commercial State sector to viability. Aer Lingus was put on a sound footing by that Government. The company was prepared for the many challenges it would face as world aviation changed in the late eighties. When we left Government Aer Lingus was in profit. This year it will lose £116 million and the total accumulated debt is now £540 million. There is no doubt that if Aer Lingus was a United States aviation company it would be now in Chapter II and if it was a private European company a liquidator would be already installed. How did a company which was profitable so recently decline so far so rapidly? What were the key decisions that led to its decline? Will anybody at management level in Aer Lingus, in the Department of Transport, Energy and Communications or sitting around the table in Government be held responsible for this debacle?
In the late eighties the measures taken to cut the cost base of Aer Lingus were reversed by the then management and the then Minister. Large numbers of extra staff were employed and the seeds of today's disaster were sown. The shorthaul fleet was replaced at enormous cost and the Aer Lingus Holiday fiasco, which resulted in a book loss of of £17 million and an actual loss in excess of £20 million, took place. The company tried to restore its monopoly on the Dublin-London route by cutting fares to a point at which it believed its competitors, Ryanair and British Midland, could not stand the heat. By last year it had ended up in the totally ludicrous situation of selling every seat on every plane from Dublin to London below cost, incurring losses in excess of £23 million on the route. The company got involved in the politics of the Shannon stopover, encouraged the Government to renegotiate the bilateral avaiation agreement with the United States to fly Dublin-Los Angeles, leased two 767s at a cost of $750,000 a month but never flew the route and has continued ever since to pay the monthly leasing charge for planes parked in Dublin Airport. Yet nobody has been held accountable. The then Minister, Deputy Seamus Brennan, presided over most of these decisions. Neither he nor the then management or board have been brought to account. Deputy Brennan's procrastinations, political interference and managerial incompetence have more than any other factor helped to sink Aer Lingus.
Deputy Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, the present Minister for Justice, when Minister for Tourism, Transport and Communications, analysed the problems correctly and re-affirmed the status of Shannon Airport, but she did absolutely nothing to remediate the difficulties of the company. Mr. Bernard Cahill, under whose chairmanship the present rescue plan has been brought forward, is no stranger to the Aer Lingus board. He has been chairman of the board since August of 1991 and was a member prior to that. During all the period since 1987 the present Taoiseach, Deputy Albert Reynolds, was either Minister for Industry and Commerce, Minister for Finance or Taoiseach — all offices relevant to the future of Aer Lingus — but he did nothing. Is it reasonable to expect that those who contributed most to the fiasco at Aer Lingus are now especially endowed to rescue it, or must we rely on the business acumen of the new bornagain market-led Labour Party to restore commercial sense to the company?
The Cahill plan proposes an equity injection of £175 million. It makes no attempt to justify this injection or to reconcile it with the demand made by Aer Lingus last November, when Mr. Cathal Mullen was chief executive and Mr. Cahill was chairman of the board, that the appropriate equity injection was £400 million. If Mr. Cahill felt last November that the company could be rescued only by an injection of £400 million, how can he make do with £175 million a couple of months later? Forty three million pounds of the equity now proposed is earmarked for a redundancy package. A total of 1,530 employees at Aer Lingus will be made redundant. Is it not extraodinary that a Government that claims that its top priority is job creation is using £43 million of taxpayers money to destroy so many jobs? It is quite clear that some equity is needed. No case has been made by anybody for any particular amount of equity greater or less than the amount proposed. As it stands it is a figure plucked out of the sky, and any figure from £50 million to £400 million would have equal validity on the basis of the arguments put forward in the plan.
The plan proposes to divide Aer Lingus into four business centres: the first to serve Britain and the Continent, the second Aer Lingus Express to the UK, the third Aer Lingus-Shannon for the transatlantic routes, and the fourth to manage ancillary services such as catering and baggage handling. The proposers of the plan have produced neither market research nor financial projections to indicate how this proposed new format will rescue the company. It is quite clear that the company hopes to carry extra passengers on both its transatlantic and UK Express routes, otherwise these services will not work. Yet there is no information provided to suggest that the projections for increased load factors are based on other than a hunch. It seems from published material that the new arrangements on the transatlantic route are expected to increase the number of passengers carried by 13 per cent. A totally new company unit is proposed for shuttle-type flights to the United Kingdom. Yet the expectation in the plan is that the number of passengers on all routes to the UK will increase by only 1 per cent. How can a plan based on such flimsy projections ensure financial viability? These figures simply do not stand up and it is difficult to project where Aer Lingus will be in two years time on the basis of the information provided.
The proposal in respect of the ancillary services is quite clearly to prepare them for privatisation. Baggage handling, catering and some other unspecified services will be distinct cost units. Initially, Aer Lingus will avail of their services, but after three years they will have to compete with other service providers. It is clear that if this is carried to its logical conclusion these services will be privatised and further substantial redundancies will be added to the 1,500 projected.
All Aer Lingus assets other than the core business and TEAM Aer Lingus are for sale. The only asset which could make a significant impact on the balance sheet is the Copthorne Hotel Group. This has a book value of £215 million, and even though its market value is significantly less, its sale would have a significant impact on the balance sheet.
The plan is particularly dishonest in its treatment of smaller subsidiaries such as CARA and PARC. It is clear that these are for sale as soon as a buyer is found, and statements that they are not are extremely unfair to the workers of these companies. In the case of CARA its privatisation will, I have no doubt, lead to redundancies which we can add to the total projected.
The only reason TEAM Aer Lingus is not for sale is because it is not worth anything. The Cahill plan projects 250 redundancies in TEAM, but this figure is very hard to reconcile with the industrial relations shambles at that concern over the past few weeks. The announcement on Friday last that 300 workers were being let go on a so-called temporary basis and that a further 150 will be let go shortly is difficult to reconcile with a claim that redundancies at TEAM will be held at 250 when the plan is put into effect. When we take into account the stated redundancies in the core airline business and at TEAM, the difficulties TEAM is experiencing now, the privatisation of ancillary services and subsequent redundancies, the sale of the subsidiaries and the redundancies that will occur as they are privatised, it is clear that the projection for redundancies is nearer 2,500 than to the 1,500 in the plan.
It is difficult to understand how the Labour Party in Government can preside over the wiping out of solid jobs in a State company. It is difficult to understand what motivates Labour backbenchers when they can stand idly by and watch the destruction of industrial jobs. One would have to go back to the clearing out of the Highlands in Scotland or the rush from this country after the Famine for any destruction of similar proportions. Yet, the Labour Party will be sanctimonious and its members will say, "we are in Government now and the promises we made at election time are null and void and redundant", like the 1,500 Aer Lingus workers.
The decision to change the status of Shannon will have a very adverse effect on the west of Ireland. Tourist traffic will be transferred from the mid-west region to Dublin, and the main plank of regional policy in the west of Ireland, will be removed. The plan is quite ambiguous on its intentions in regard to the transatlantic fleet. The Minister originally informed Deputies that the three 747's would be based at Shannon Airport, and that direct flights would be provided between Shannon and New York all the year round. It is clear that one of the 747's will be based in Dublin and there will be no direct flights from Shannon to New York for eight months of the year. It is clear that the Government has accepted this recommendation, and it is a sad day for the west of Ireland that such a momentous decision has been taken by the very people in which the electorate placed their trust in the last election.
Last November the then Minister, Deputy Geoghegan-Quinn, announced that she was maintaining Shannon's transatlantic status after a thorough economic analysis of the benefits the status conferred on the country as a whole.
The Government's announcement tonight will be greeted with dismay in the Shannon region, and those Deputies whose electoral success has been largely based on the commitments they made to preserve the status of Shannon, will have to make their position clear in the course of this debate. I refer in particular to Deputies Killeen of Fianna Fáil and Bhamjee of the Labour Party.
The last published accounts of Aer Lingus show the company's position up to March of 1992. The transatlantic service was the only section of Aer Lingus then showing a profit, and in that financial year the profit was almost £10 million. The Cahill plan claims that the trans-atlantic route is now a major loss maker. I hope the rest of the plan is more soundly based than this claim, as the accountancy devices used to show losses on the route are such that no respectable accountant would put his name to them. The substantial earnings on baggage handling for Virgin Airways at New York and Aeroflot at Shannon are not shown as revenue on the transatlantic route. The £2 million revenue from fares on Shannon/Dublin and Dublin/Shannon on the 747s is not shown, even though all costs on this route are put down to the transatlantic. The $9 million per annum leasing costs on the 767s, bought to serve Dublin/Los Angeles but which have never left the ground, is assigned to the transatlantic costs. The 747s which now constitute the trans-atlantic fleet were sold and leased back, the leasing costs are assigned to the North Atlantic, but none of the benefits to the group from the proceeds of the sale are so assigned.
The bilateral agreement between Ireland and the US controls all trans-atlantic air traffic. All airlines may fly to Shannon but no airline may fly direct to Dublin. If the Irish Government allows Aer Lingus to fly direct to Dublin, then all US carriers may fly direct to and from Dublin. It has so decided tonight, and now we have an open skies policy under which any US carrier is free under the terms of the bilateral agreement to fly into Dublin. The Minister is shaking his head in disagreement. Does he intend renegotiating the bilateral agreement? It took 18 months to re-negotiate the bilateral agreement to allow Aer Lingus fly Dublin-Los Angeles. It will take as long to re-negotiate the Shannon agreement and in the meantime there will be many opportunities for the American carriers to come in. Two years ago 40 per cent of all US visitors to Ireland came through London and this year 60 per cent will do so. American air travellers are voting with their wallets and Aer Lingus cannot compete with the low cost fares to London. How does the Government expect Aer Lingus to compete with the low cost US carriers who with the experiences of deregulation for the past ten years have cut their cost base? How can Aer Lingus compete with those carriers if they decide to fly Dublin direct as is their right under the terms of the bilateral agreement?
The Government has no aviation policy. In an article I wrote for the Irish Independent two weeks ago, I set out my position on this matter and also on the necessity of Aer Lingus entering into a partnership arrangement with other European carriers. I will repeat those arguments. The decisions taken recently on aviation matters show clearly that we have no aviation policy. SFADCo, whose statutory function is the development of Shannon Airport, was asked on behalf of the Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs to promote Kerry Airport. Gillian Bowler was appointed to head up a task force to promote Shannon Airport and the Cahill plan has proposed major changes in the status of Shannon, and action to reduce Aer Lingus' cost base. Aer Rianta announced about 6 weeks ago that it would increase that cost base by raising landing fees by 6 per cent next year while the ESRI warned against spending any further Structural Funds on regional airports. Aer Lingus cancelled 25 transatlantic flights from New York to Shannon and Dublin and reduced their transatlantic fares in the past 3 weeks but forgot to announce this. The company increased its Dublin/London fares in the same period by £20, but forgot to announce this also.
Does that add up to an aviation policy when so many decisions about air travel are being taken, many of which are contradictory? There is no pattern to that kind of decision-making. We had also the spectacle of the Government tonight accepting the Cahill plan in total when it is clear that even Mr. Cahill, Mr. Owen and the other architects of the plan had padded it in the expectation that the Government would turn it down. Is it any wonder that Aer Lingus is in trouble when that is the kind of management it has and those are the type of ministerial decisions that are being taken and when the people around the Cabinet table will wave it through without adequately studying the issues? We are a peripheral EC country. We need an integrated transport policy and in that context a fully developed aviation policy is essential.
As I said, the aviation business in Europe has grown on the basis of national carriers. Deregulation of the air industry in the United States has completely changed everything. Europe must follow and is following and even though it hopes to avoid some of the trauma which deregulation brought to the aviation industry in the United States it cannot avoid the inevitable competition which is coming with a vengence. Airlines will close down — 22 airlines closed down in America last year — new airlines will open — 30 airlines opened in the United States last year — and national governments as the champions of national carriers are now in the "Last Chance Saloon".
It is in this new world that Aer Lingus must survive and, we hope, grow and prosper. The European Community will allow one last restructuring of the balance sheet but only one. It is in the new Europe that Aer Lingus will have to find its way and it needs a partner other than the Government to help it survive and return to prosperity. A rescue plan which does not address the issue of a suitable partner for Aer Lingus is not a rescue plan; it is a trap for the company.
Before the turn of the century Europe will have only five large carriers and as arrangements are already being made to organise these, then Aer Lingus, in order to survive, must move quickly. It now looks like the carriers will be British Airways, Lufthansa, the SAS Group and Air France. There will probably be a fifth with Alitalia or Iberia providing the anchor. It is clear from the network of partnership arrangements already made that this will be the pattern of air carriers in Europe in the nineties. Does anyone reasonably expect that Aer Lingus can go it alone against this web of relationships? Again, the procrastination of Ministers, before the present Minister, Deputy Cowen, has all but undermined the company's position. No-one wants a bankrupt company for a partner and if Aer Lingus had been put on a sound footing two years ago it could now be actively seeking a partner.
Do people realise what is going on? SAS, originally a combination of Danish Air, Swedish Air and Norwegian Air, has now taken on British Midland as a partner and it has an arrangement with Swissair and KLM. British Airways has a network of arrangements across Europe and has a 25 per cent share in Qantas in Australia, while in the United States it has acquired a 25 per cent share in US Air. Do the Minister and his officials realise what is happening in Europe and how can they accept a plan which does not address the crucial issue of a partner for Aer Lingus? Aer Lingus will become a company providing a commuter service serving Dublin-London Heathrow and feeding into a major carrier unless the Minister moves quickly.
Why should we accept this plan tonight when it has not been costed properly, there are no financial projections available to the House to reassure us and there is no market research available to show that there will be extra passengers on the transatlantic and United Kingdom routes? There is no aviation policy and it is clear from the piecemeal decisions taken during the past five or six weeks that the first elements of an aviation policy do not exist. The key European issue of who we link up with and what partner should we have to secure our future in circumstances where the Government can no longer be a partner, has not been addressed. The Minister knows that the European Commission has told him that this is the Government's last opportunity to put Aer Lingus on a sound footing.
This is a shambles and I am amazed at the lamb-like behaviour of Government backbench Deputies in north Dublin and in the west, particularly the mid-west, who know that this plan will have adverse effects on their constituencies. We have heard about the "Silence of the Lambs" and we know what the theme of that film was, but at least Hannibal Lecter did not eat his own. We have the "Silence of the Lambs" from the Government backbenchers while the chairman of the Labour Party on the 5 p.m. radio programme did a mea culpa in explaining why it is so hard to be in the Labour Party at present because one has no choice but to whistle a happy tune and support the awful decisions taken by Ministers in the lobbies. The danger to Aer Lingus is imminent and I ask the House to reject this plan when it comes to the vote at 8.30 p.m. tomorrow night.