Vol. 454 No. 3
28 Mr. J. Walsh asked the Minister for Social Welfare the action, if any, he will take in view of the fact that unemployment in 1995 is likely to exceed the Government's estimate and cost the Exchequer an extra £30 million in social welfare payments; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [10647/95]
85 Mr. Leonard asked the Minister for Social Welfare the numbers of unemployed on which his estimates of expenditure for 1995 are based; the projected numbers of unemployed as shown by the monthly figures compiled by the Central Statistics Office; and the plans, if any, he has to provide for the additional cost involved. [10635/95]
I propose to take Questions Nos. 28 and 85 together.
The social welfare Estimates of expenditure on unemployment for 1995 are based on an average live register forecast of 266,000, as announced by the Minister for Finance on budget day. This number is some 16,000 below the 1994 average figure.
As is customary, the Department of Finance will review its budget day live register forecasts and any necessary revisions will be set out in its Economic Review and Outlook document, which should be published in July.
Expenditure on the full range of my Department's programmes is monitored closely as a matter of routine. The monitoring process covers all subheads of the Vote which includes income from PRSI receipts and will take into account any change in the live register projections provided by the Department of Finance as well as other relevant factors. It is too early yet to predict the overall outturn on the Social Welfare Vote with any degree of certainty and, therefore, too early to say whether a Supplementary Estimate will be needed later in the year.
I should also mention that, in addition to making the statutory unemployment payments, my Department, through its employment support services, actively encourages unemployed people to avail of the full range of relevant options and incentives. These include incentives to take up employment, self-employment, second-chance education, social employment or training which are administered by various Departments and agencies, including the Department of Social Welfare.
Has the Minister's attention been drawn to the recent Central Bank report which states it has upped its forecast to 269,000, and independent economic forecasts of 274,000 which will put additional strain on the requirements of his Department to an estimated £30 million. I do not accept that it is too early to forecast because the Central Bank is an arm of Government. Is the Minister taking any steps as a result of that forecast?
The forecast was brought to my attention. We are talking about the average for the year, not the average for a month. It has not been possible to predict a final outturn in terms of unemployment numbers or income and expenditure for the Department before the end of September.
It is irresponsible not to take note of the Central Bank report. Since publication of the report, jobs have been lost in Packard, the Press Group, Sunbeam and Pretty Polly. In view of the Government's lack of planning will the Minister assure the unemployed and those who are less well off that their requirements in terms of assistance and benefit will be funded for the rest of the year?
It is regrettable that the Deputy seeks to create the fear that the Government will not meet its obligations to the unemployed or those who may become unemployed before the end of the year. If the need arises, my Department will seek a supplementary estimate for additional money. If the Deputy knows anything about his brief he knows that outflows, income from PRSI and so on are taken into account. The Department will meet its obligations to the unemployed.
I am amazed the Central Bank report was ignored. I am basing my questions on the report. Has the Minister's attention been drawn to a news item dated 30 May which suggests he is contemplating cutting the Christmas bonus?
The Deputy is really desperate.
Will he assure social welfare recipients that he will not punish them before the end of the year?
I do not know if the question is worth a reply. The projections in the Central Bank report were drawn to my attention. We take them into account in our projections of what is required to meet our obligations for the rest of the year. The Christmas bonus is not included in the budgetary arithmetic at the beginning of the year but is provided for later in the year. That will happen this year as is usual.
