Joe Walsh
Question:6 Mr. J. Walsh asked the Taoiseach if he will give a breakdown of the people who have left the live register in the past two months; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [22292/96]
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Live Register Statistics.
The live register total of 267,586 in October 1996 was some 20,000 below its August 1996 level. There were 53,288 new registrations between the end of August and the end of October, while the number of persons leaving the live register in the same period was 73,000. Of the persons leaving the live register, 40,165 were men and 33,135 were women. No statistics are available on their reasons for leaving the live register.
Apart from the information on the gender balance of the inflows and outflows to the live register, has any research been done on the educational status of those leaving the register and the length of time they were on the register?
That is a new area which is hardly the responsibility of the Minister of State.
As far as I know, we do not have that research. However, I will check out the matter and I will be glad to communicate with the Deputy on it.
What proportion of them were short-term and long-term unemployed?
I do not have that figure but I will communicate shortly with the Deputy in that regard.
I was going to raise that point. Would it be helpful to have more specific data on the phenomenon of the 20,000 who left the register, the reasons they left and where they went? That would help long-term social welfare planning.
From the point of view of charting economic programmes and planning for the future, it is desirable to have as accurate data as possible on the reasons people leave, where they go and the pattern of the inflow and outflow to the register. I will take up that matter with the Central Statistics Office to see if we can hone, modify, update and improve statistics in that regard.
It is apparent we have no information on those leaving the register, apart from their gender. Would it not be prudent to at least do some research on why people leave the register, who they are and what level of education they attained? Such valuable research information would mean that more could be done for the long-term unemployed, in particular, the number of whom has increased over the past two years.
As the Deputy is aware, successive Governments have not accepted the live register as the definitive database of unemployment.
The Minister of State should not switch the goal posts.
The established recognised methodology throughout the European Union, which we have always used, is the labour force survey.
That is not correct in relation to the last Government which lived by the live register figures and did not use the labour force survey.
Let us have an orderly Question Time where questions are put in an orderly way. Let us listen to the replies without interrupting.
Not alone that, but to show the Opposition's acceptance of the labour force survey as the definitive gauge of unemployment, it has constantly asked me in the House when we will introduce quarterly labour force surveys.
The taxpayers know how many are on the live register.
These will be introduced in 1997 and will be the definitive gauge of the rate and level of unemployment.
That is nonsense.
Given that this is essentially a statistical question, to use the time worn phrase of the Ceann Comhairle, does the Minister of State think that when Deputy Walsh asked him for a breakdown of those who had left the live register he asked for a gender statement? Why can a sophisticated Department such as the Department of Social Welfare and the Central Statistics Office not answer elementary questions such as whether these people were short term or long-term unemployed? Surely Deputy Walsh did not look for a gender breakdown of those statistics.
By giving the overall figure and then breaking it down in terms of gender, I was simply being helpful. It is important to know the gender patterns of those in employment. A significant factor overlooked is that the drop in the number on the live register for those two months is the largest for that period in the history of the statistics.
If that is so, and it remains to be seen, surely it is evident that we need to glean more information about why that is the case, the people concerned, if they returned to work or where they went. Otherwise, if we are caught up in the numbers rather than the reasons for the decline in the number, this is a useless exercise.
I acknowledge that for economic planning it is important that the statistics are as accurate and precise as possible and that account is taken of the causes for changes in them as well as the raw statistics. I will bring that to the attention of the CSO. Regarding September, it is also recognised that other factors are prevalent and have become the norm. Schools reopen, students return to college and factories, which were closed for holidays, reopen. Those factors are standard, not variables. Allowing for them, the number on the live register fell by 8,900 in the month to end September 1996 and by a further 11,100 in October 1996, the largest decline in that figure on record.
Is the Minister of State saying he is not aware that the dominant factor in all of this was the publicity surrounding the Central Statistics Office arising from his published material about social welfare fraud? Is he still reiterating the point that he thought Deputy Walsh was looking for a gender breakdown of the figures when he tabled this question?
Regarding the causes for the decline in figures, it is not my remit to look behind them. This is a policy matter. If the Deputy wishes to link it to something that happened during summer period, well and good. The net point is that there has been a significant drop in the number of people signing on the live register——
And the Minister of State does not care why.
——and claiming social welfare, resulting in considerable improvement in Exchequer figures and a saving to the State.
I tabled this question to glean some information about the status of those people signing on and off the register. I have been told about their gender balance which may well be very interesting. Will the Minister of State direct the CSO to undertake qualitative research into those who sign on and off the register to enable the next Government to do something to tackle the problem of the growing number of long-term unemployed in this economy?
The Deputy was a Minister and Minister of State for a considerable period between 1987 and 1994.
Will the Minister of State answer my question?
The mechanism used in calculating these figures is the same as that used at that time. I told Deputy O'Rourke that from the point of view of economic planning I would like a database set up to provide information on the reasons people sign off the register. I will not give a direction in that regard, but I will examine what can be done and I will communicate on that to Deputies O'Rourke and Walsh in due course.