Vol. 505 No. 4
60 Mr. J. Bruton asked the Minister for Finance if a sensitivity analysis has been done on the impact on Irish economic growth rates and public finances of a significant fall in the value of the United States stock market. [13554/99]
My Department has not carried out a sensitivity analysis of the impact on Irish economic growth rates and public finances of a significant fall in the value of the United States stock market per se. It should be noted that the Irish economy, in common with other open economies, faces a number of potential risks from international developments. A fall in the value of the US stock market is only one of many such risks that exist.
The Deputy will be aware that, in the documentation accompanying the Stability Programme 1999-2001, I presented a sensitivity analysis of the impact of changes in growth rates on public finances. This shows that a downward shift of 1 per cent in the assumed growth rate would probably lead to a negative impact of up to 0.5 per cent on the General Government Balance.
