Any surplus over and above what I anticipated on budget day will be used to further reduce the national debt. Perhaps some extra moneys could be put aside for the pension fund proposal. Any surplus will be used for either of those purposes.
Deputy McDowell raised a good point, one which was raised not only by him and others but inside the Government. Two years ago we analysed this matter and revised the method of doing this. I will get my Department to send the Deputy a copy of our proposals. There was a new methodology used in the past two budgets. The first time we used this methodology, most commentators said after the budget that whatever about previous forecasts, this was really at the outer limit and it might be a little dangerous because it might have been understated.
There is an interesting international phenomenon about this. In times of economic upsurge every country we examined understated the tax revenues and, peculiarly enough, in times of economic downturn they all overstated the forecast. Therefore, this is not a phenomenon which is unique to Ireland.
We have revised the methodology and I can give the Deputy the document regarding the methodology involved. The first year we did it there was considerable angst that we might be going a little too far.
If one thinks that is a little unusual in Ireland, in the UK the forecast for overall tax revenue on budget day in 1999 was £322 billion for the 1999-2000 tax year. A few months before the end of the year they were proposing an overall exchequer deficit – they do not use those phrases there, but the effect is the same. The overall surplus for the year turned out to be £12 billion. In case people might think that the situation is a little unusual here, we have never been that far out compared to the UK. I point that out for the benefit not only of the Opposition but perhaps of some of my colleagues also.
Written Answers follow Adjournment Debate.