Bernard J. Durkan
Question:153 Mr. Durkan asked the Minister for Finance if current economic indicators are in accord with those in 2001 and 2002; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [14965/03]
Written Answers. - Economic Indicators.
The CSO recently published its annual estimate for 2002, which shows that the economy was growing more slowly, in GNP terms, than had previously been expected. As a result the economy will have entered 2003 with little momentum. On budget day my Department's forecast for real GDP growth for this year was 3.5%, and 2.2% for real GNP growth. Considerable uncertainty remains about the timing of a global recovery, therefore the risks to my Department's economic projections for this year are on the downside.
Currently, only a limited amount of data for economic indicators is available for this year. For most indicators we have less than two months of preliminary data available. However, at this point tax revenue performance and sentiment surveys indicate that the economy has yet to experience an upturn. CPI data, of which four months data is available, is moving downwards, with the April figure of 4.3% showing the sharpest fall in the annual rate of inflation since January 2001. The CSO will publish its finalised data for the first quarter of 2003 in July and for the second quarter of 2003 in October.