At end of December 2002, there were 188,350 people receiving an old age contributory or retirement pension. A recent actuarial review of the social insurance fund, undertaken by the Government Actuary Department in the UK, presented that the number of recipients of these pensions will increase to 255,000 by 2011 and 321,000 by 2016. The increase will, to some extent, be balanced by a reduction in the number of people receiving the old age non-contributory pension. The numbers receiving this pension are down over 20% in the past ten years which reflects improved social insurance coverage and increased labour force participation, particularly among women.
In common with other European countries, the population of Ireland is ageing as a result of a combination of increasing life expectancy and a declining birth rate. The decline in the birth rate is relatively recent and this, coupled with the effects of high emigration for much of the period up to the 1990s, has resulted in Ireland having the lowest proportion of older people in the EU – 11.2% aged 65 and over, as compared to the current EU average of 16.1%.
The proportion of older people in Ireland will remain at much the same level for roughly the next ten years after which it is projected to increase rapidly to 15% in 2021, 19% in 2031 and 28% in 2056. A similar situation exists in relation to the numbers at work relative to the number of pensioners.
Given that the situation will remain relatively stable for the next ten years or so, no particular measures are planned in that timescale. However, the Government is making preparations, through the national pensions reserve fund, to part fund pensions costs from 2025 onwards.