My colleagues and I welcome the opportunity to make our presentation to the committee on the future direction of Irish farming. Members will be aware that things are not good on the farm. Three weeks ago a campaign to highlight incomes in farms was undertaken. An excellent job was done and I commend the highlighting of the issue. However, identifying solutions to it will be much more difficult.
The issue of low incomes was addressed three weeks ago and I do not want to re-open that debate. The average annual income in dry stock farming is €7,500. The annual income on cattle farms of 125 to 250 acres is €16,000 to €18,000. Such farms are relatively large and are in no way a part-time operation. This is hardly a reasonable return on either labour or investment. Why is this? The farmer gets only 30% of the price the consumer pays. When Ireland joined the EEC in 1973 the farmer received 75% of the consumer price.
In 1995 farmer borrowings amounted to €1.8 billion, in 2001 it had almost doubled to €3.2 billion, yet incomes are declining. In real terms, farmers' incomes are now lower than in 1973. It takes €14,000 in supports to deliver €10,000 in income. The agri-food report shows that if we continue direct payments we will have approximately 20,000 full-time farmers by 2010. Is this what we want for the future?
Where are we going? We can see two options. We can either stick with what we have and accept that we cannot improve ourselves or embrace change and try to shape it in our own interests. I believe we must opt for the latter. If we do, the Fischler mid-term review is the only show in town. This approximates the ICSA's analysis in the past seven or eight years, especially in the area of decoupled payments. This is at the core of the EU vision for change as outlined by Mr. Fischler.
We need to understand the components of the MGR. The first issue is decoupling, and we are in favour of it as it empowers farmers to engage with the market in determining a return for their labours.
The other part of the mid-term review is modulation. We are opposed to modulation, particularly at the low levels envisaged. We think a far fairer figure at which to start modulation would be the average industrial wage of €24,000 or €25,000.
Another part of the MTR concerns market reforms. This is an issue that applies mainly in the dairy sector, for which it has severe implications. The Minister's stand has to be supported because the issue could have severe consequences if such a stand was not taken.
A further element of the mid-term review is the second pillar and rural development, which presents an opportunity for the farming sector in so far as we have shown ourselves to be adept at devising schemes to draw down moneys through rural development programmes.
Cost compliance is also involved in the mid-term review. It has an impact on environmental, animal welfare and operator safety issues, which are already there. Cost compliance exists because we have to be aware of environmental issues in relation to farming, in addition to animal welfare and health and safety. Therefore, we already have cost compliance. I contend that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.
It is important to emphasise that although the MTR and the WTO are linked, they are separate and will be negotiated independently. This means, for example, that if the MTR did not happen - in other words, if there is no attempt to reform the CAP - the WTO, with all the threats it carries, would still be on the table because those talks will happen anyway. The key issues in the WTO are export refunds, which will be under pressure and, likewise, import tariffs which will also be under pressure. The blue and green box issues and the tactics attaching thereto also arise. Can the REPS payments remain untouched? If we do decouple in that environment, can we negotiate a better situation concerning export refunds and import tariffs? Those are the WTO issues.
In examining the relationship between the mid-term review and the WTO, we must bear in mind factors which include farmers' returns from the marketplace. At present, the farmer is only receiving 30% of the consumer price and that is likely to continue, perhaps to a lower percentage in the direct payments era.
We need to examine the impact studies already available to us concerning farm incomes. These clearly show that, in terms of impact in the EU, beef production will be down 3%, sheep 4% and sucklers 11%. On the other hand, prices for beef will be up 8% and sheep 12%. The OECD report on the impact for Ireland states that beef production will be down 12%, with a similar figure for sheep, while suckler production will be down 30%. On the other hand, prices will rise by 8% for beef and 20% for sheep. In terms of farmers' income, the overall impact in the EU will be a 4% increase, while for Ireland it will be 11%. In assessing the future direction of Irish agriculture, we cannot dismiss this study. The OECD report has stated that decoupled payments are twice as efficient in delivering net gains to farmers as the direct payments. Surely we should be efficient in delivering net gains to farmers.
Inflation also impacts on farmers. We have a high inflation rate at present, having just exited 2002 - the last year of increases in direct payments, which will now remain static. Coupled with falling farm incomes, inflation is impacting heavily in a direct payments situation. There is no capacity to recover inflationary costs from the market because it is over supplied. In a decoupled area, where the farmer still has the decoupled payment as a single payment, he is empowered to engage with the marketplace in terms of whether he obtains a return for his labour. Therefore, any inflated costs he incurs will be far more recoverable from the marketplace than in a direct payment situation. It is far more likely that increased inflationary costs will be recovered.
The other element of the argument is the sustainability of farming. Two issues spring to mind concerning the arguments surrounding sustainable agriculture. The first of these is the nitrates issue. With the REPS payments system, farmers are forced to produce at a particularly high level. I know the nitrates issue impacts less heavily on dry stock farmers and on other farming areas but, nonetheless, it still has consequences for us all. However, in a decoupled area where there will be fewer animals on the land, it will have a knock-on effect in terms of the nitrates issue and gas emissions.
Part of the FAPRI report indicated that gas emissions will be reduced in a decoupled situation by 13%. It would be preferable to have a situation whereby compliance with our requirements under the Kyoto would be observed through the knock-on effect of decoupling and its beneficial impact on gas emissions rather than have a situation where a coupled scenario is forced on us and where we need to reduce our stock numbers when the rest of the issues around direct payments have not been addressed. That is a significant benefit, bearing in mind the compliance with those two issues down the line.
What do we face in the future? Do we enter into the mid-term review and the WTO? If we go into the WTO with direct payments, they could be targeted and we could end up in a lose-lose situation, whereby the surplus production of beef combined with lower export refunds and reduced import tariff barriers would severely impact on farmer incomes. Eddie Punch might have a few words to say on how our analysis would impact on the debate.