Okay. Let me give an update on some of the key matters surrounding CAP reform. This will become a major issue in the autumn and into the Irish EU Presidency next year. It is important that people are up to speed on what I have been doing because I would like feedback on whether the committee thinks we are taking the right approach.
The most important issue this week concerning CAP reform was a bilateral meeting I had with the Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development, Mr. Dacian Ciolos, rather than the Council debate. The latter was important but is not as key an issue for Ireland because it predominantly discussed market measures to deal with price fluctuations. There were some comments on milk prices, as well as issues concerning a soft landing. What was most interesting was a discussion with the Commissioner on how he saw things unfolding from now until a decision is made on the Common Agricultural Policy reform process.
There is now an increased likelihood that we may get what is called the MFF - the multi-annual financial framework, which is the EU budget for the next seven years - agreed in December. If I had been asked three weeks ago when we were likely to get the MFF agreed, I would have said next March at the earliest, in the middle of the Irish Presidency. Now, however, I believe there is an increased likelihood that it may get done in December. There are political reasons for that. One of the drivers for it is that there will be an election next autumn in Germany and they are anxious to get agreement on the budget long in advance of that, as well as getting other agreements on the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy that will be needed following the MFF agreement. They would like to have those difficult political negotiations well out of the way before an election, otherwise one could find that the whole matter is pushed back for 18 months or two years, which I do not think would be in Ireland's interest. Therefore, there is an increased likelihood that we may get the MFF agreed in December, which is very positive from the Irish Presidency's viewpoint.
The reason that is so important is that 85% of the EU budget that comes into Ireland is for the CAP. Of the approximately €1.9 billion that comes into Ireland each year in EU receipts, the CAP accounts for almost €1.7 billion of those. This is the key issue for us in renegotiating the CAP. In case I am quoted on those figures, they may not be exact but they are not far off the mark. Members might check them in case they are going to quote me on them.
By far the most important element of the European budget from an Irish perspective is the Common Agricultural Policy budget, pillars 1 and 2 - rural development and direct payments. As part of negotiating the EU budget, there is what is called a negotiating box around CAP decisions because it represents about 40% of the total budget. There are a lot of real, practical decisions concerning the implementation of the next round of CAP being taken by heads of state as part of the budget negotiations. For example, they will be taking decisions on the distribution levels of CAP moneys between member states. They will also be taking decisions on the percentage of direct payments that should be assigned to what are now known as greening payments. Such decisions will be taken by Heads of State, not by agriculture Ministers.
That is why the MFF is so important in terms of what the final CAP reform will look like, as well as the amount of money that will be available for Irish farmers. There is still a big concern that the overall EU budget that was proposed by the Council will be reduced quite significantly by heads of state. There was talk that it may be reduced by up to 10%, which prompts the question as to where the savings will come from. Does it come from CAP budgets, structural funds, regional development funds or the research and innovation budget? Those are the big areas. Ireland will be making a very strong case that if savings are to be targeted in the overall EU budget, one should not target CAP. From an Irish viewpoint it would be very damaging to us.
More broadly, however, the CAP is already being effectively and quite significantly reduced as a percentage of the overall EU budget. Even though what is being proposed by the Commission is that 2013 CAP payments will remain more or less intact into 2014 and on into 2020, the amount of money is not increasing annually in line with inflation. Since it is not index linked, it is effectively a cut every year. The percentage of the overall EU's MFF budget that is CAP is actually reducing year on year anyway. The idea that on top of that real reduction one would get a further reduction as part of negotiating a smaller budget, is not appropriate. Therefore we will be fighting hard to retain the CAP budget in full. If there are to be any reductions, we will fight to minimise them in terms of the CAP.
On a number of occasions, this committee has discussed the key CAP issue for Irish farmers, which is the proposal to essentially redistribute the single farm payment money between farmers - to move away from a historical basis for payment to a flat-rate, area-based payment. If one were to apply that to Ireland as a whole, one would see a significant redistribution of moneys away from what traditionally would have been the most productive sector in farming. There is a direct correlation between productivity and direct payments because of the way in which historical payments were actually given due to the number of cattle a farmer had in 2002 and 2003. By and large, they are still the most productive farmers in terms of contributing to growth in the agrifood sector. The Irish position is to support the redistribution of the single farm payment. It will take moneys from the highest earners and give it to the lowest earners.
The level of redistribution the Commission is proposing in its move to a flat-rate system, however, would result in a significant transfer of single farm payment supports away from the most productive sector, by and large, to others. This would do much damage to our sector as a whole and make it difficult for us to meet the overall growth targets we are aspiring to achieve over the next ten years. In case anyone is misunderstanding this, Ireland is still proposing redistribution but not the full level of conversions that the Commission is proposing.
If we are forced to a flat-rate model, we would have to break the country into different regions. There is not a single country in Europe that has imposed flat-rate, area-based payments without regionalisation. I do not want to have to do that unless I am forced to. It would be difficult to explain to farmers why we are putting them into different regions and applying different flat-rate payments per hectare. The reason why it works in other countries is that different regions have different types of farming as can be seen in France, Germany and Italy. For example, a farm in an arable basin in France will produce arable crops while other areas will be predominantly dairy-producing or beef-producing. These can be broken down into different regions and give different payments per hectare as appropriate. In Ireland, we have mixed farming across the country. Some of the best farms are in County Galway as well as some of the most challenged in terms of natural resources. It is likewise in Cork, Donegal and Kilkenny. Breaking Ireland up into different regions does not solve our problem in moving to an average payment per hectare.
We have put together a proposal which we think makes sense for Irish farming and other member states. This uses the formula the Commission has proposed to solve the problem of the convergence of Common Agricultural Policy moneys between countries and to move towards the same average payment. However, this cannot be done politically overnight. Production systems and costs in different parts of Europe do not justify the move either. If one were to apply the Commission's approximation redistribution model – which was an Irish construct in the first place – it would lead to the internal redistribution of CAP moneys but would not dramatically undermine the fabric of farming moving straight to flat-rate payments would do. The model means the highest earners in single farm payments would be the biggest losers, the lowest earners, the biggest gainers. As one moves to the average payment, the transfers become less. The average loss would be just under 9% and the average gain would be approximately 29%. This is a very fair way of examining this and it is gaining traction with other member states.
We now have an agreement with both Spain and Portugal that they will adopt the Irish model for applying internal convergence. Italy may well do the same while Denmark, Belgium, Luxemburg, Austria and the Netherlands have a similar problem to Ireland in that they do not want to see this dramatic redistribution of supports for farmers. We are working hard to ensure the Irish proposal gains some traction. Next week, I will go to Berlin, Hungary and Poland to explain our position and listen to what other member states are seeking in this regard.
Six months ago we were on our own on this. We now have significant member states not only supporting the theory but, in the case of Portugal and Spain, actually supporting the exact Irish proposal. I have also been to the European Parliament to get traction for this concept. If member states want to go to a reorganised, area-based payment model, let them do it. Countries like Ireland which would have a difficulty in doing so in the timeframe proposed should be allowed the flexibility to apply another way to redistribute CAP moneys and one which would be more workable.
For example, a farmer getting between €20 to €50 per hectare under the single farm payment would gain to the tune of 200%. For someone getting a small farm payment of only €20, they would gain by 600%. These are the extremes, however. A farmer on a payment of between €100 and €150 per hectare would gain to the tune of 30%. Likewise, a farmer on €500 to €600 per hectare would lose to the tune of 13.5%. A farmer on a payment of €300 to €400 would only lose to the tune of 6%. The closer a farmer is to the average area payment the less one loses. The further away from that average, the more one would gain or lose. That seems to me to be a fair way of redistribution which would result in an average loss of 8.8% to the losers and an average gain of 29% to the gainers. That case can be made for a farm on the Dingle Peninsula or a lush farm in east Cork. The alternative is we have to break the country into different regions which would be difficult politically and agriculturally.
The other political point I have made to the Commissioner is that Ireland is in a different category to other member states. We are taking over the EU Presidency in January. It will be my job to facilitate a final compromise on the CAP with which everyone can live. I have told the Commission that we have some specific issues on which we need to find a compromise before the Irish EU Presidency. This would allow our Presidency to concentrate on getting a deal done for every member state rather than having to lobby hard for an Irish position. I do not want to be sitting in the chair at a Council meeting trying to force an Irish position while we are holding the Presidency. I believe the Commissioner understands my position and this is why we are going to work hard in the autumn to find solutions that work for Ireland, at least on an understanding basis, prior to the commencement of the Irish Presidency. We want to do that in the European Parliament and in the Council. I hope the MFF will be completed by the time the Irish Presidency begins so that we can focus our efforts on completing CAP in the first quarter of 2013.
The other big issue for farmers is greening. We are making good progress on a concept called green by definition. It is proposed that 30% of countries' single farm payment allocation will apply to greening and the funds would only be paid to farmers who meet the greening criteria set out by the Commission, namely, crop diversity, protecting permanent pasture and setting aside 7% of their land for ecological areas, including forests, wetlands and marshes. Those three criteria will undoubtedly be amended before the final deal is struck but we have made the case that farmers who are already operating under environmental schemes, such as REPS or the agri-environment options scheme, should automatically qualify for greening payments without going through a series of tests on the three criteria. They should be green by definition, which means they would automatically qualify for payments. We are also lobbying to include farms where permanent pasture comprises more than 70% of the land on the list of green by definition. This would bring the vast majority of Irish farmers into the category of green by definition and they would thus automatically receive the greening payment attached to the single farm payment without going through bureaucracy and form filling. We are trying to play to Ireland's strengths. Ireland farms in a sustainable manner by and large because we have so much permanent pasture and almost everything we do is based on grass. We are unusual in that regard and this needs to be reflected in greening by definition.
Overall we are in a much better position now in respect of the CAP than was the case six months ago. We none the less face significant challenges in getting agreement on our concerns. Certain powerful countries want to force every member state into an area based regionalisation payment model simply because they already operate such a model. That is going to be a significant political challenge but we have some powerful allies which were not around several months ago. That has taken a lot of work. Over the summer months and in the early autumn I will be travelling extensively around Europe to explain the Irish position and, I hope, persuade additional countries to join our group of allies. I have before me a copy of the internal convergence policy agreement between Spain, Ireland and Portugal and I am confident that we can persuade other countries to sign up to our proposals by the end of the year.
I have outlined the broad position on CAP but if members have questions on any other aspects of it I would be happy to answer them.