I thank members for their invitation to attend. We were happy to receive it and take it seriously.
Social Justice Ireland is an organisation of individuals and groups throughout Ireland. It stands alone, in that it is not tied to any other body. Our membership numbers approximately 65 or 70 organisations and several hundred individuals. While organisations and individuals can join, the condition is that they must be committed to working to build a just society in which human rights are respected, human dignity protected, human development facilitated and the environment respected and protected. This is our understanding of the term "just society" and is the basis of our organisation.
Social Justice Ireland believes strongly that a fairer future is possible and deliverable but it is crucial that the Government's decisions and the terms of the bailout agreement to which the Government is working should focus on delivering a fair and just outcome. The adjustments required and the decisions taken should all be in the context of reaching a future that is fair, just and sustainable. It is also essential that the pathway towards such a future must be seen to be just and fair. Both the destination and the pathway are important. Therefore, it is vital that the decisions taken in budget 2012 and beyond take some key steps towards that future in a fair and just manner.
The current situation is difficult and we live in precarious times. The bailout agreement and the conditions it imposes are being honoured and targets are being met but the promised outcomes are not materialising. For example, economic growth is not reaching the targets forecasted, jobs are not being created on the scale required, unemployment is not decreasing at the rate envisaged but, rather, seems to be increasing, finance is not available on the scale required for small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, essential services are being reduced to such an extent that the health and well being of citizens is being put at risk and those who are poor or vulnerable are bearing an inordinate share of the pain in the adjustment process. Demand for the services provided by the community and voluntary sector, often the place of last resort for many vulnerable people, has escalated week by week, yet its funding has been reduced dramatically. The essential infrastructure supporting the delivery of public services is being eroded with serious long-term implications. Measures pursuing short-term gains will cause significant long-term pain. This matter is not being addressed.
We will highlight three key problems, although they are not the only ones. We have been drawing attention to them for some time. Growth will not reach the level projected for 2012, which underpins the calculations in the bailout agreement. Domestic demand continues to fall, which is a serious issue if we are trying to generate growth and jobs. The infrastructure supporting the delivery of public services is being eroded.
The bailout agreement to which we are working requires too great a set of changes to be produced at too fast a pace with too harsh consequences. These factors are combining to undermine economic growth and, in turn, any potential for recovery. The adjustments being imposed would need the economy to reach Celtic tiger growth rates to have the prospect of recovery at the forecasted levels underpinning the memorandum of understanding.
I will address the budget and our proposals shortly. We wish to draw attention to a number of initiatives at the macro level that Ireland should take. Some of the debt should be written down, unsecured bondholders should not be paid and a new State-backed bank should be established to provide finance to SMEs. Nothing in the existing system will meet the requirement to which I referred. If members are interested, we would be glad to outline our proposals today or at another time.
We have presented the committee with a 20-page policy briefing, entitled "A Fair Future is Possible", which sets out our views. We will not read through it all, but I will draw the attention of members to some of its elements shortly. Our proposals are fully costed and come to the same destination that the troika wants Ireland to reach, that is, to reduce our borrowing by €3.6 billion in 2012. However, we travel a different route and our choices differ from those contained in the Memorandum of Understanding. We take a different direction because the proposals in the memorandum fail to protect poor and vulnerable people, continue the process of dispossessing poor people so that bankers and bondholders may be repaid in full - a process we consider to be profoundly immoral and unjust - and provide no investment to help generate economic recovery. There are serious doubts concerning whether the future set out in the memorandum's targets and outcomes can be achieved in the changed national and international circumstances, given the global growth projections. Since we are so dependent on exports and domestic demand has decreased, serious questions are being raised about the overall frameworks.
The three of us met the troika in July and last month when it visited Ireland. Both times, the troika assured us that it had no problem with the Government finding different pathways to the same conclusion, that being, reducing borrowing by €3.6 billion in 2012. There are a number of major differences between our proposals and those of the Government and the memorandum of understanding. The borrowing reduction target should be achieved by tax increases and expenditure reductions on a ratio of 2:1, which is the opposite of the memorandum of understanding. There are no reductions in welfare rates and we believe child benefit should not be changed. The situation of the working poor should be improved by making tax credits refundable - at least the top two tax credits. We propose an initiative of scale which would see up to 100,000 long-term unemployed people take up real part-time jobs. I will return to that issue because, for us, that is a critical issue in terms of where we go from here. The support infrastructure for social services would be protected by following what we propose.
We do not believe the parameters set out in the bailout agreement are viable in terms of securing Ireland's development. However, given the insistence by the Government and the troika that they want to travel in this direction we wanted to set out a series of options that would protect poor and vulnerable people. We have done that. I will not go through the whole document. On page 2 of our policy briefing document we have set out some charts, showing the poverty line, effective tax rates and so on. On the following page there are 40 statistics which we consider are critically important if one wants to understands Ireland's social and economic position as of today. On page 4 of the document we recall the bailout agreement agenda and so on. Our guiding principle on page 5 is to protect the vulnerable and we show how that can be done. We want the social infrastructure supported and not demolished any further. Page 6 of the document deals with more appropriate tax expenditure adjustments. This is where we come to the conclusion that the adjustments should be done in reverse direction; the 2:1 ratio should be in the opposite order.
Our concerns about growth are developed in page 6 of the document. The need for welfare reform is accepted but there is no justification for reducing social welfare rates in budget 2012 and we have set out five reasons for that. On page 7 we show the impact that social welfare rate payments have on poverty. Without social welfare payments, including pensions, 46.1% of people in Ireland would be at risk of poverty. That is not to say the social welfare rates are dramatically high but they make a point about people's level of income and the actual impact of State transfers. Consequently it is important to be careful about reducing them.
On page 8 we address the critically important issue that Ireland's total tax take is not sustainable at its present low level. Our view is that it should be moved to 34.9% of GDP, which would still keep Ireland a low tax economy as recognised by EUROSTAT and other agencies but would still give us several billion euro more in income annually which would make a huge difference. We set out our points about reforming the tax reliefs. We propose a corporate profits levy. This is a levy of 2.5% for several years on the profits of corporations, unlike the PAYE workers who has to pay the levy on all or most of the money they earn. This is simply a levy on profits and we think the corporate sector should make a contribution.
We propose that the universal social charge should be extended to all income over €100,000 at 3%. We propose a site value tax. Given that the carbon levy is going ahead we propose that a substantial component of it be reallocated to ensure there are no losses among poor people or rural dwellers who are affected by that levy disproportionate to others. We propose the introduction of a very small text tax and a bad nutrition tax on page 10, not just on sugars but on a range of issues.
We have a proposal on the working poor. Four out of every ten households at risk of poverty in Ireland is headed by a person with a job. Most, if not all, could benefit from having the tax credits made refundable. This is quite affordable despite earlier figures produced that argued for the past decade that it was not affordable. It is affordable even at the present time and would have a huge impact. Some 113,000 low-income people would benefit from it.
Page 12 of our document contains the one proposal we would opt for if asked to choose one. This is a new programme, not another scheme, to create 100,000 part-time jobs for the long-term unemployed people in the public sector and in the community and voluntary sector - not in the private sector for obvious reasons of problems with displacement. These jobs would be created, for example, in the public sector from headquarters of the Department right down to the local library in a local village or town. They could do any job that is useful so long as there is no displacement involved. It would be a voluntary programme. People would work the number of hours required to get their social welfare money plus €20 which is the same as they would get if on community employment. After that they would be free to do whatever they wished. The number of hours worked would vary depending on the amount of their welfare money. They would have a maximum of 19.5 hours. After that, they are free to take up part-time work and pay tax the same as everybody else but would not lose their welfare benefits.
The idea is to create real part-time jobs. We have a certain interest which we should admit to. During the last recession in the mid-1990s this programme was piloted by Sr. Brigid Reynolds and me who ran the programme from 1994 onwards. The programme was mainstreamed in 1997. We piloted the programme in a range of different areas from Blanchardstown and Finglas to the islands off the west coast to the city of Waterford, four towns in south Tipperary, County Laois and north Kerry. We created 1,000 part-time jobs. The programme was mainstreamed in 1997 under the Minister, Deputy Richard Bruton, and the Minister of State, Deputy Pat Rabbitte, both Ministers in the current Government. In the following years, as the economy improved, the programme melted away, which is exactly what it should do, because there were jobs available in the wider economy and people took them up.
We have some proposals on education, health, capital investments programme and pensions. In terms of funding a capital programme there should be a standard rate of pension contributions. We have a series of proposals in pages 16 and 17 of the document. On pages 18 and 19 we set out the full costings. These tables show the exact costings. The costings we are using have been derived from Government publications and others. We have not invented any of this.
There are a few issues that are not included. On the taxation side we did not include the €600 million that we estimate would be the savings on interest payments in 2012 as a result of changes that have emerged since the Government did its original figures in April from which we worked, the stability and growth programme publication at that time. On the expenditure side we did not include the public sector savings coming from the Croke Park agreement which, we believe, are estimated at about €300 million.
At the end of the day we presented a set of proposals, fully costed, to produce a fair budget in a time of crisis, a budget that would protect the poor and vulnerable and operate within the parameters set. If we could choose, we would set different parameters. Given the parameters that Government has and that the bailout sets, this is a set of proposals that would protect poor and vulnerable people and lead to better outcomes.