I will back up some of the points Ms Johnston made about the policy context for our submission. Relative income poverty measures the percentage of the population below 60% of median income. The level of relative income poverty in Ireland increased from 16% in 1994 to 22% in 2001. There is a discrepancy between consistent poverty, the level of which is reducing, and relative income poverty, the level of which is increasing. At some stage the level of consistent poverty will start to rise again. Both are relative definitions and consideration has already been given to re-evaluating the components of the consistent poverty measure. It is suggested that it might now be increasing and that we cannot ignore the level of relative income poverty.
The duration in respect of relative income poverty has increased. Three quarters of those below the threshold have been below it for a number of years. This is a source of concern. Those on low incomes for a longer period of time are of greater concern than those on such incomes for a short period. Ireland's performance is the worst in the European Union in which we have the highest level of relative income poverty. In a context where tackling poverty is increasingly on the European agenda — there is a commitment at European level to make a decisive impact on poverty by 2010 — we have considerable work to do to bring Ireland into line with European norms.
Driving the challenge presented by relative income poverty has been the deteriorating position of households on welfare, the key component behind rising levels of relative income poverty. The poverty risk for welfare recipients increased from approximately 5% to 20% in 1994. All welfare categories — recipients of old age pension, unemployment benefit and assistance, lone parent's payments and widow's pension — now have a poverty risk rating of between 40% and 50%. One in every two households which depend on a social welfare payment is likely to be income poor. The relative position of those on welfare has fallen behind the rest of society. In absolute terms, they have improved their position but, in relative terms, they have fallen behind.
Not alone do we know what the problem is but we also know what the solution is. The recent ESRI study of Irish income poverty rates and why they were so high in the European context looked at all the explanations and concluded that the solution was wider social welfare coverage and higher welfare payments. If we want to be the same as the high performing countries such as Denmark and Holland, we need to increase welfare payments to lift the position of those receiving them.
The other category is the working poor. Employee households now account for 17% of all poor households. This reflects the fact that more people are working and are, therefore, vulnerable to being categorised as working poor. The Government has made a commitment to end child poverty but one third of all poor children are living in working households. This raises the question of how best to target these categories. The issue of child benefit is central to this, an issue to which we will return.
Our budgetary focus is in keeping with Government policy of the last two years. We are swimming with the tide, not against it. We want to strengthen the Government tide and make a bigger impact on poverty by putting more resources into the pro-welfare approach of the last few years. We, therefore, suggest an increase in tax and welfare expenditure to €1.2 billion. This would mean an extra €300 million over the figure for 2004. Given the improvement in the Exchequer finances, this is an affordable amount. Some may argue that it is too modest. While that may be the case, it is important that we maintain the pro-welfare focus as opposed to tax cuts. There is a concern that the availability of greater Exchequer resources might lead to tax cuts. We say the focus should be maintained on the welfare side where more resources should be provided.
A number of outstanding welfare targets should be met. Minimum welfare payment and child benefit targets must be met. We see the need to separate the funding of child benefit from the broader social welfare allocation. Child benefit has not been increased to the extent the Government may have wished, partly because the Department of Social and Family Affairs has had to make a choice between increasing child benefit and increasing social welfare rates. It is an unfair choice. Child benefit should be paid from the tax allocation, not from the welfare allocation. It is a universal payment which has a tax component in terms of the old tax free allowance for children. We need to increase revenue by broadening the tax base while avoiding indirect taxes and user charges.
Our priorities fall into four categories, one of which is concerned with welfare payments and supports. We should increase the personal rate by a minimum of €12 per week. The Government has made a commitment to reach a figure of €150, in 2002 values, by 2007. We are now at the mid-point of that five year programme. If the €150 target was adjusted in line with inflation which some would say is a minimum, the current figure would be €171 by 2007. Therefore, there is a deficit between €171 and the current rate of €135. This deficit of €36 translates to €12 per year over three years. Others have argued that the rate should be higher but we see this as the minimum amount required. The increase of €12 compares with last year's increase of €10.
The qualified adult rate should be increased by €9 per week. The amount paid for couples is an additional 66% over the personal rate. This is not enough to guarantee the living standards of couples. We want to bring the adult equivalent amount from 66% to 70%. To do this we suggest a flat rate increase of €9 in the qualified adult rate. We also suggest reform of means tests and income disregards.
We suggest a novel and not very expensive idea of providing a savings incentive as part of the MABS for indebted households. The issue of savings and savings incentives is current since the introduction of the special savings incentive scheme. However, the scheme misses the priority group of those on low incomes. We suggest, as part of the MABS debt recovery service to those who are indebted, a euro for euro saving incentive scheme to encourage them to save.
Our second priority is child income support. Increasing child benefit has been a Government priority in recent years. This is the only policy option which the Government has identified. Child benefit meets many needs. It meets child care and poverty needs and gives an independent income to the home. We agree with this approach. However, the Government has fallen behind in its commitment to increase child benefit to €150. It made a commitment that its target would be reached in 2005. Delivery of this commitment requires an increase of €17.60 per month, a 13% increase. This is crucial to keep the current consensus in favour of child benefit.
We make two other suggestions. We have argued the need to age relate child dependant allowances. A review is being carried out of the means-tested tier by the National Economic and Social Council and we believe nothing will happen until that report is completed. We make two suggestions. One is to pay the clothing and footwear allowance to all means-tested CDA recipients. The second is to expand the provision of school breakfasts and hot lunches. This would have education, income and health outcomes.
Our third priority is welfare to work measures. We want to increase the threshold for family income supplement by €35 per week. This would be in line with basic welfare increases. The main tax measure should be to increase the PAYE tax credit by €240 per annum, the increase delivered last year. This is the only tax increase we recommend. We also recommend that the medical card threshold for children be increased by €14 per week. This would increase coverage among low income working households.
Our fourth set of recommendations are intended as a long-term measure to increase opportunities for people from poor backgrounds. Early childhood education and care can have two outcomes. They can increase the opportunities for parents, particularly mothers, to return to the workforce and give children from poor backgrounds a fairer start in school by providing access to early years education and care. We make a number of suggestions in this area which are derived from the OECD report on early childhood education and care. This is a key missing element in our education and care system.
We have costed these proposals in detail. The total package amounts to €1,200 million. We are allowing an additional allocation of €100 million for social expenditure purposes. Our pre-budget submission has a strong welfare focus. More than 60% of the budget should go on welfare payments. Child benefit should take €239 million while 25% should go to the tax side. As regards the actual amounts, whether the Government spends less or more, the key element is that this proportionality is maintained in the system as a result of the budget.
We use the SWITCH model to illustrate the positive impact this proposed budget would have in reaching low-income households and reducing the level of relative income poverty. We use a tax welfare model to simulate how households would be affected. This takes account of the different types of household and the various combinations between taxpayers and those in receipt of social welfare payments and child benefit. At budget time people often come up with hypothetical households comprising two adults and two children which are extremely unrepresentative of the total population. Using a model gives us a far better way to understand what the outcomes actually are.
In presenting this model we need to compare our budget proposals with an alternative, a wage indexed budget where one would increase welfare payments, tax bands and reliefs by 4.2%, the expected level of wage growth for the year ahead. This is often seen as a neutral budget. It is interesting to note that the SWITCH estimates of the cost are very similar to the official figures. In fact, they come out exactly the same at €1.2 billion. This helps to validate our results. Our proposals would cost €366 million more than a neutral budget but most of this would go on welfare payments. We would claw back something in the order of €143 million from those who pay tax.
This table presents the distributive impacts — those who would gain. We break the population down into ten deciles. The bottom three would gain by 4%. Their incomes would increase by 4% compared to a neutral budget. The middle income groups would gain around 1% while the higher income groups would lose slightly — it would be a very modest loss. In cash terms, the gain per week would be between €6 and €11. We believe, therefore, this would be a progressive budget. The budget proposals of all groups — especially those on the tax side making suggestions for tax reliefs — should be presented in this format. It would then be clear to all policymakers, including members of the joint committee, who would benefit from all the different proposals made. We are being transparent and up front.
There is a proposal that all major policy statements should be poverty-proofed. We believe we are doing this. The challenge is for all other groups to let us see what they are saying with a similar analysis.
The distributive impact would be skewed very much towards lower income groups, with cash gains of between €5 and €11. Some 70% of aggregate gain would go to the bottom 30% of the population. The richest deciles — the top 30% of the population — would lose a net €59 million but within this 30% there would be winners and losers. The winners would be those taxpayers with children because they would gain through child benefit, while the losers would be those without children. Is that not what we are trying to achieve? We want to support families and children across all income ranges. That is the strength of child benefit compared to simple tax reliefs which are generally regressive in terms of widening the tax bands.
The next analysis is of the impact of the Combat Poverty Agency's proposals on poverty. This looks at the change in the percentage of households on lower median incomes compared to a neutral budget. At 50% of the median, there would be a fall in relative income poverty of2%; at 60%, it would be about 1.5% and at70%, around 1.75%. These are significant reductions. There is often a mystique surrounding relative income poverty as there are so many factors at work. Therefore, how can one reduce it? Here is one way. People will argue about the employment effects but here is the first round impact of a tax-welfare package. We can see clearly that there would be a strong reduction effect in the way we allocate resources.
To summarise, welfare reform is the key to reducing the high rate of relative income poverty in line with best practice in the European Union. With additional resources, there is an opportunity to intensify the redistributive impact of recent budgets. The policy priority is meeting outstanding welfare commitments and achieving some reduction in the tax burden of the low paid. There is no justification for major tax cuts. We need to bear in mind — this point is somehow lost — that every year for the last five there has been a Government subvention of €500 million for those with SSIAs who, in the main, are taxpayers. That is happening. As it is not factored in here, it needs to be borne in mind.
Child benefit is a targeted alternative to tax cuts and perhaps is the key choice. We want to reward work and support early childhood education and care. This is not a short-term fix, it also has a long-term effect in rewarding work, supporting early childhood education, trying to break the cycle of educational disadvantage and inter-generational poverty.