I had hoped that at this time more than three years after the ending of the war it would have been possible to avoid asking for a measure of this kind, but the supply situation which has shown some improvement as regards certain types of goods has not been sufficient to meet the demand in other cases. For that reason, it is necessary to continue rationing for another year. I think that, in the present international situation and the difficulty experienced in securing supplies of many commodities, it is essential that the powers which this Act gives should be retained. We are, therefore, asking the Seanad to continue the provisions of the present Act for another year.
I might say that where supplies are abundant, it has been found difficult, in some cases, to secure the transit of goods here, due to the disturbed situation abroad. It is essential, therefore, to build up stocks so that we can have available adequate supplies in the event of a temporary cessation in the flow of goods from the country or port of origin. In some parts of the world a shortage of goods exists, while in others the supply situation has improved, but, even in cases where there is a surplus supply of goods available at present, the currency situation presents some difficulty. The necessity for conserving hard currency makes it necessary to restrict consumption so as to avoid drawing, unnecessarily, on our supplies of hard currency. In addition to the actual control which is operated in connection with our rationed goods which are at present in short supply, the Act which is being continued deals with price control and, while there have been certain deductions in the world price of a number of commodities, prices continue to be greatly in excess of the 1939 level. The present wholesale price index is 233 as compared with 100 in 1938 and the import price index which was 89 in 1938 is now 238. It is clear, therefore, that the general price level continues to be abnormally high and that the danger of inflation still exists. If control were discontinued in relation to profits and prices the likelihood is that prices would advance still further and that the economic fabric of the State would be endangered. Any further increases in cost-of-living index, which is 80 per cent. above the 1939 level, must be avoided. The increase is attributable very largely to the increase in the price of imported commodities over which we have no control but we can exercise a degree of control by ensuring that there is no increase in the cost where it is within our power either to effect a reduction or at any rate to maintain prices at the present level. I think it will not be possible to relax in any way price control.
The experience which we have gained in the working of the price control system is all the time under review to see what improvements can be effected with a view to making price control more efficient and, wherever possible, with a view to relaxing the interference with business and the interference with the ordinary commercial life of the community. The experience during the emergency period of Orders made under the Emergency Powers Act indicated that in many cases the Orders made to meet emergency conditions were suitable for incorporation in permanent legislation and a number of these Orders have now been incorporated in Acts that have since been passed. Some of them are at present under examination for inclusion in future legislation and in due course these proposals will be brought before the Dáil and Seanad.
I think Senators might like to have a short review of the supply position in so far as it concerns some essential commodities.
There is no prospect of an increase in the supply of petroleum products, at any rate in so far as we can see at the moment, which would warrant the cessation of rationing. In fact it is, I think, fair to say that, as far as it is possible to see at the moment, rationing will have to continue for quite some time. At the present time our estimated annual demand for petrol is 33? per cent. over our consumption in 1938. The increases in the estimated demand in the case of kerosene is 30 per cent. and in the case of fuel oil 400 per cent. With these increased demands, Senators will realise that it has not been possible, despite the efforts we have made, to get sufficient petroleum products to end rationing.
Tea and sugar rationing is kept under constant review but I think that in view of the difficulty of securing supplies, and in particular when we consider the situation in the Indonesian tea gardens and remember that 18 per cent. of our supplies came from Indonesia, it would be unsafe at the present time to contemplate the ending of tea rationing. Supplies of tea in stock or in sight represent approximately one year's supply at the current ration rate or 11 months' normal supply. I think it is essential that we should maintain stocks at the present level in order to have some reserve against possible contingencies.
The grounds for maintaining sugar rationing are somewhat the same. The world sugar supply position has not yet returned to normal and, having regard to currency difficulties, it is unlikely that we shall be able to import a greater quantity in the year ending 30th June, 1949, than in the year ending 30th June last. Our stock of sugar on hand, including home production in the current season and purchases abroad, will only just enable us to maintain distribution on the present basis until the commencement of the 1949 home production season in November, 1949.
It is estimated that 500,000 tons of wheat would be required at the present rate of extraction if we were to end flour and bread rationing. The consumption under rationing is 430,000 tons per annum. The wheat crop this year will, it is hoped, amount to 250,000 tons and 100,000 tons of foreign wheat have already been imported. Additional imports of 112,000 tons are also expected. The total of 462,000 tons will be sufficient to maintain the ration on the present basis for the next 12 months and will give a small carry over for the next cereal year. It would be possible to purchase sufficient wheat abroad to end bread rationing but it would involve considerable expenditure in dollars and, in addition, there is the added difficulty of getting this wheat here. I think I might say here that up to the present month this year's native crop which has been made available to the mills is the largest yet received.
The production of butter for the current year is estimated at about 560,000 cwts. which is not sufficient to provide a 6 oz. ration over the whole year. The prospect of any appreciable improvement in the near future is so remote, as I think there is no likelihood of importing supplies from abroad, that there is little prospect of ending butter rationing.
If there are any details which Senators require in regard to any other commodities I shall be glad to furnish information.