My reason for raising this matter on the Adjournment is that we are in an unprecedented situation. Up to now we have had gloomy economic forecasts from outside bodies and glowing indications from Government circles that things were going extremely well. Over the past few weeks we have seen a change in the trend. We have seen the Government being very conservative in their attitude towards growth in the economy and towards prospects for growth. At the same time, because of an enormous buoyancy in tax revenue in the first few months of this year, Government forecasts have been overtaken since over £200 million in tax over and above what the Government were expecting came in in the first period of the year. This morning we had the very confident view of the ESRI on the economic prospects for this country over the next few years.
My original reason for raising this matter was that in the past a Government that has an excess of revenue might have decided to spend it to buy votes or enter into arrangements which might in the long term be damaging to the economy. I would like the Minister to reassure the people, not alone in this country but abroad, that our economy is in the hands of people who want long-term economic advancement for this country and who will not buy votes for short-term advantage. This could have been done; it was done in the past.
The Government are, and have been, working towards long-term solutions to the problems that have overtaken us over the past ten years. That there has been a buoyancy in the tax returns is due to confidence coming back to our business people. This confidence is permeating businesses. As a small businessman in the motor trade, I am at last seeing a change in the business area. That industry is beginning at last to get off its knees. The building trade and the motor trade have been the two indicators over the years of economic growth in the country. The building trade has not yet got back to the levels reached in the late seventies, but the position is improving. People are returning who had gone to work in what they considered to be a better environment in the south of England, in the United States and other areas. They are starting again into speculative building in the housing area. They are beginning to get involved in the construction of commercial projects. The fact that people are willing to come back is an indication that the economy is on the upturn. Unfortunately there are problems in regard to people wanting to set up business finding workers because many people who left the country are not willing to come back unless there is a long-term prospect for work.
The ESRI report shows that there is a long-term prospect for security of jobs and growth for people who go into business. Because this report comes from an independent group outside Government it is important to take cognisance of it. The fact that they say there will be an increase of 80,000 people at work over the next few years must be taken into account. When the population is increasing it is difficult to provide employment for all but that 80,000 figure should be noted. That is the important statistic which should not be forgotten.
It is amazing to note that the ESRI also state that within the next few years no Government borrowing will be required. I do not think anyone, two years ago, could have foreseen that the ESRI would have made a statement of that magnitude. They say there will be a GNP rise of over 7 per cent next year, a huge increase by world standards. No matter what statistic is taken, from any country, for an independent body to state that there will be a GNP rise of 7 per cent next year — when the average all over the world will be less than 3 per cent — shows that the Government have been working solidly to produce long-term solutions to our problems. Of course it takes time to resolve all our problems in terms of work, attitudes to work and investment. There was an attitude that this was not a country in which to invest and many companies ceased to invest here and invested abroad because the returns were much better. I am glad that in the past few months there has been a huge investment abroad by indigenous Irish companies. They are doing so because they have profits to invest abroad and the money they make on them will be repatriated to this country, which is a very positive sign. Avonmore, Waterford Co-op and others have invested in the United States resulting in Irish banks being very positive towards investment abroad. These companies can compete abroad and repatriate their profits, which is very encouraging. It is a result of positive Government action over the past two or three years.
I put down this motion because the Minister for Finance should be given the opportunity to state categorically that the Government will continue to work extremely hard to get the country back into line, to provide jobs and education for our young people and the services necessary to support the very young — and old — population.
Another significant figure from the ESRI was that Government borrowing has dropped from 30 per cent of GNP in 1986 to about 4 per cent this year. That is a figure of enormous magnitude when one considers the economics involved. There are problems associated with our level of growth and training in a number of industries. Many firms have not taken on an apprentice for the last four or five years because they could not guarantee employment at the end of the training period. The Government should look into this area and also at the fact that the economy will grow with the result that there will be a demand for more work from people within the economy. However, they will not be interested in doing this work if they are excessively taxed on overtime. I ask the Minister to look at the system in Germany of a seven or eight hour day and where the remuneration for anything over that is taxed at a normal rate. The same should apply here if people are willing to work longer hours. I am talking about skilled and semiskilled workers.
The economy in full bloom will cause problems associated with steady growth. People may decide to buy imported goods to such an extent that inflation could rise. That will have to be controlled to a certain degree as we do not want a booming economy if it causes a huge increase in inflation because we are importing too many goods. Irish standards in production and the range of Irish goods available have never been so good. Standards in design and technology here are in the first class world league. With an increase in prosperity we should look to the Irish product first — not to the exclusion of the foreign product — and, if we can, to buy it instead of the imported one. After 1992 the marketplace will be much more open and we must look at Europe as the single market. After 1992 goods imported from within the EC will not be treated in the same way as goods from outside the EC. We must live and survive in the open market which is Europe.
Many firms are spending a lot of money in getting involved in the process of preparing for 1992; 1 January 1993 is not far away and those who are not yet involved in preparation for 1992 should be encouraged to get into the mainstream to try to force them to get their act together to take advantage of the prospects for 1 January 1993.
The major problems we have to face which will not be totally resolved, irrespective of our economic progress, are those of emigration and the creation of jobs for our young people. We should do everything possible to ensure that Irish people continue to receive a high standard of education in our schools. If they have to go away so be it but they will gain experience abroad than will be of enormous value to the country when they return. Young graduates who have experience in foreign commercial concerns make a great contribution when they return. There is little point in continuing with the old slogan that our young people are our future. Our young people will only be our future if they get an opportunity to work here. I do not mind if they leave the country for a short time to gain experience but the Government must continue their efforts to provide the commercial environment to entice them back after they have gained the experience of working with international firms.
The Government, according to the independent reviewers, have been adhering to the task they set themselves. They must be allowed continue with that job. If they are not the country will return very smartly to the depths of depression it was in three years ago. There is a good attitude among Irish people at present and it must be maintained. I am appealing to the Minister and the Government to continue with the work they have been engaged in in the last two years. Independent economic advisers, whether they are the ESRI, or The Economist intelligence unit from Britain, or Newsweek reporters all say that in the last two-and-a-half years our Government transformed the state of the Irish economy. My plea is that the Government should be allowed continue with their task. They should not be denied that opportunity.