Eamon Gilmore
Question:98 Mr. Gilmore asked the Minister for Education and Science if he will make a statement on the implications of the fall in numbers sitting the leaving certificate in 2004. [19481/04]
View answerWednesday, 30 June 2004
Questions (37)
Written answers
At this stage, the data available for the 2004 leaving certificate reflect the numbers who entered for the examination rather than the number who actually sat the examination. Nevertheless the data since 1998 have shown a consistent decline overall in the numbers who sat the leaving certificate, as shown in the table.
|
Year |
LC Established |
LC Applied |
Other, including adults |
Total |
|
1998 |
59,297 |
2,264 |
4,858 |
66,419 |
|
1999 |
58,002 |
2,199 |
4,842 |
65,043 |
|
2000 |
55,907 |
2,747 |
4,830 |
63,484 |
|
2001 |
51,935 |
2,867 |
4,735 |
59,537 |
|
2002 |
50,117 |
3,026 |
5,257 |
58,400 |
|
2003 |
51,055 |
3,299 |
5,182 |
59,536 |
The numbers of entrants, not sits, in the leaving certificate examinations in 2004 are as follows: leaving certificate, established — 48,143; leaving certificate, applied — 3,620; other, including adults — 4,331; total — 56,124.
The decline is in line with changing demographic trends and declining birth rates in the 1980s. The decline in the numbers sitting the leaving certificate as a result of the falling birth rate has been substantially mediated in recent years by an inflow of immigrants and returning emigrants into Ireland. In September 2003, 3,546 students from abroad entered State-aided second level schools in Ireland. Further modest reductions in pupil numbers are expected in the coming years but assuming current trends in inward migration, the reduction is expected to be only of the order of 4% to 6%. By 2013, based on rising birth rates in the 1990s, the numbers of students sitting the leaving certificate one expected to rise again.
The reducing number of students at leaving certificate level does not reflect a decline in the proportion of students remaining in school to completion of senior cycle. In fact, the available data suggest that retention rates have been stable since the early 1990s at 81% to 82%, and a range of actions are in place across the system to prevent early school leaving and increase retention rates in the future.
With regard to entry to third level education, the actual numbers of students entering full-time third level courses have remained relatively stable since 1999 at approximately 35,800. However, the proportion of school candidates who sat the leaving certificate and subsequently entered higher education on a full-time basis has increased from 55% in 1998 to 66% in 2003, allied with an increase in the proportion of mature student entrants from approximately 5% to10%. The modest decline, therefore, in the numbers sitting the leaving certificate is not expected to result in a reduction in third level places in the future but rather an increased entry rate from initial schooling and more opportunities for adult re-entrants.