I have been asked when global oil production may peak against the background of the conventional notion of what is meant by "peak oil". The determination of the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world's oil production is a matter of worldwide concern. It is the focus of many, often conflicting, research studies, views and opinions. While I have not undertaken specific analysis of world oil production, I support and have access to such research because Ireland is a member of the European Union and the International Energy Agency. I understand that the agency will publish the 2004 edition of its World Energy Outlook on 26 October next. The implications of global "peak oil", whenever it occurs, on prevailing energy costs will be determined to a significant extent by the energy mix on the global demand side at the time.
In Ireland, as in other economies, the magnitude of the direct effect of a given oil price increase will depend on the degree of dependence of the various sectors of the economy on imported oil, the ability of end users to reduce consumption, the ability to switch away from oil and the impact of world oil prices on the cost to businesses and consumers of imported goods and raw materials. Reliance on oil must be eliminated over time, however, if global economic development and living standards are to be sustained. While there may be new oil finds and improvements in extraction technologies, the environmental impact and the finite nature of fossil fuels such as oil are key drivers of research into sustainable and renewable energy sources.