Based on the current state of knowledge and data as supplied by the EPA we can estimate the State allowances as follows:
Year
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Aviation Allowances
|
475
|
475
|
475
|
475
|
475
|
475
|
475
|
475
|
475
|
EUA Allowances (ETS excl aviation)
|
—
|
8,151
|
8,001
|
7,852
|
7,702
|
7,552
|
7,403
|
7,253
|
7,104
|
As with any market based instrument it is difficult to say conclusively what the revenues will be. There is considerable uncertainty around predicting a future carbon price. Assuming a price of €15 a tonne (a price similar to the current price of carbon on the European Climate Exchange), then the yield from the allowances could be as follows:
Possible Yield (€m)
Year
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Possible Yield
|
7
|
129
|
127
|
125
|
123
|
120
|
118
|
116
|
114
|