Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 7 April 2011
31 Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance the growth rate predictions he is using in negotiations with the EU-International Monetary Fund in view of the disparity between the projections from his Department and the EU-IMF. [7094/11]
View answerThe forecasts prepared by the Department of Finance last October and first published in early November in the National Recovery Plan, and subsequently in Budget 2011 are the latest published forecasts. Forecasts naturally need to be reviewed from time to time as additional information becomes available. Since last October, important National Accounts and National Household Survey data for the final quarter of 2010 has been published. "Hard" and "soft" high-frequency data have also become available for the initial months of this year.
The Department of Finance is using all available data to inform its thinking and for the update of its macro-economic projections that is currently underway. This update is being carried out with the new European Semester in mind, which requires Ireland, along with all other Member States, to submit a Stability Programme Update, including updated macro-economic forecasts, to the European Commission by the end of April.
While it is important that we await the outcome of my Department's current forecasting process, I understand from my officials that taking account of the risks identified at Budget time, the short-term economic prospects overall are weaker than had been previously factored in, albeit certain sectors are doing well. This evolving view will inform the ongoing negotiations with the EU/IMF as part of our First and Second Quarterly Review currently under way.
