Dáil Éireann Debate, Wednesday - 20 July 2011
77 Deputy Thomas P. Broughan asked the Minister for Finance if he will estimate the growth rate for Ireland in quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4 of 2011 and for the same quarters of 2012 and 2013; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [21707/11]
View answerQuarterly Irish economic data can be very volatile and is subject to non-negligible revisions. This was evident once again in the latest Quarterly National Accounts, which revealed that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, GNP fell by 4.3 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1 2011 following positive growth of 0.3 per cent in Q4 2010. The previous estimate for the last quarter of 2010 was 2 per cent growth. Given this volatility, my Department's growth forecasts are based on annual averages rather than quarterly figures. On this basis, my Department's latest forecasts — set out in the Irish Stability Programme Update which was published at the end of April — are outlined in the following table. Growth will continue to be export driven over the short term before broadening out to the domestic side of the economy from 2013 onwards.
|
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
GDP |
0.8 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
GNP |
0.3 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
