Seán Crowe
Question:40. Deputy Seán Crowe asked the Minister for Finance the reason the growth prediction from his Department for 2013 has decreased each year in the stability programme update from 2011 to 2013. [41515/13]
View answerThursday, 3 October 2013
Questions (40)
Written answers
All economic forecasts are conditional forecasts - they are based upon assumptions for key inputs such as demand in export markets and exchange rates etc. When these assumptions change, projections will, by definition, change. Economic developments in Ireland’s main trading partners - in particular the UK and the euro area - have underperformed international forecasters’ expectations in recent years. This has contributed strongly to the downward revisions in GDP growth carried out by all domestic forecasters in recent years, including my Department. This is one of the main factors necessitating the downward revision to the 2013 forecasts in each of the Stability Programme Updates. It is also worth pointing out that forecasts are based on estimated outturns for key variables, such as GDP, which themselves are subject to revision.