I propose to take Questions Nos. 42 and 45 together.
The Government’s primary strategy to reduce long-term and youth unemployment has been through policies to create the environment for a strong economic recovery by promoting competitiveness and productivity. Economic recovery will underpin jobs growth. This strategy is working. Employment has risen by about 85,000 since the recovery began in 2012. The unemployment rate, according to the most recent Live Register figures for November, is falling and is currently at 10.7%, the lowest rate in over 5 years – and is down from a peak of 15.1% in 2012.
The most recent QNHS figures for long term unemployment show that since the peak in Q1 2012 of 204,000, the numbers had fallen by 65,100 as of Q3 2014, a reduction of 31.9% (see Figure 1 below). The percentage of the labour force who are long-term unemployed (the long-term unemployment rate) rose from 8.2% in 2011 Q1 to 9.5% in Q1 2012 before falling over the last two years to a recent low of 6.4% in Q3 2014.
The most recent figures also show youth unemployment down by 11,400 year-on year to 48,400 in Q3 2014, equating to an unemployment rate of 23.2%.
Nevertheless, despite the progress that has been made, the Government recognises that both long-term unemployment and youth unemployment remain unacceptably high. People who are long-term unemployed account for 58% of total unemployment and within the overall number who are more than 12 months unemployed the number that are two and three years unemployed is particularly worrying. It is clear that some people who became unemployed at the height of the jobs crisis in 2009 have found it particularly difficult to find employment. Hence, the Government recognises the need for additional activation measures to ensure that as many as possible of the jobs created as the economy recovers are taken up by long-term and young Live Registrants. This is the rationale behind the Government’s Pathways to Work strategy and the Youth Guarantee, both of which are being led by the Department of Social Protection.
In Pathways to Work 2012, a target was set for the Department of Social Protection of moving 75,000 of those who were long-term live registrants at the end of 2011 into employment by the end of 2015. Up to the end of the third quarter of 2014, over 65,000 of this group had moved into, and remain in, employment. Given progress to date, the Department is on course to reach its 2015 target.
The latest iteration of the Pathways to Work Strategy - Pathways to Work 2015 - includes a wide range of programmes and services to help long term unemployed jobseekers back to employment. These include programmes such as JobBridge, JobsPlus and Momentum introduced by this Government and schemes such as Community Employment and Tús, where the Department has significantly increased the number of places available. JobsPlus is targeted specifically at encouraging employers to recruit people who are long-term unemployed. Almost 3,000 long-term unemployed people have been placed in employment as a result of JobsPlus and over 60% of these have been unemployed for 2 years or more.
Pathways to Work 2015 also includes arrangements to increase the level of systematic engagement of the employment services with those who are out of work for long periods. There is also a specific focus on employer engagement to encourage employers to recruit from the Live Register.
The most recent figures for participation on the main activation programmes are set out in the following table:
Activation Programmes (October 2013 and October 2014)
Live Register Activation Programmes (Number) by Type of Activation
Programme and Month
|
|
Oct 2013
|
Oct 2014
|
|
Back to Work payments
|
|
|
|
Back to work allowance scheme - employee strand
|
12
|
5
|
|
Back to work enterprise allowance scheme - self employed strand
|
10269
|
10897
|
|
Short-term enterprise allowance
|
708
|
516
|
|
Total back to work payments
|
10989
|
11418
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other activation programmes
|
|
|
|
DSP part-time job incentive
|
243
|
384
|
|
TUS - community work placement initiative
|
6849
|
7683
|
|
JobBridge
|
6174
|
6599
|
|
Total other activation programmes
|
13266
|
14666
|
|
|
|
|
|
Community employment schemes (excluding supervisors)
|
21806
|
22815
|
|
FAS full time training for unemployed people
|
9145
|
8434
|
|
|
|
|
|
Back to education courses
|
|
|
|
Vocational training opportunities scheme (VTOS)
|
5000
|
5000
|
|
Back to education allowance (BTEA)
|
24432
|
21201
|
|
Total back to education courses
|
29432
|
26201
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total activation programmes
|
84638
|
83534
|
Back to Work allowance scheme - Employee strand: This scheme was closed to new applications from 1st May 2009.
Short-term Enterprise Allowance: This scheme was introduced from 1st May 2009. It provides immediate support for someone in receipt of Jobseekers Benefit who wants to start a business.
FÁS Full Time Training for Unemployed People: Specific Skills Training/Local Training initiative/Traineeship/Return to Work
Breakdown became available for April 2012 Live Register release.
Vocational Training Opportunities Scheme (VTOS): VTOS figures are estimated at 5,000 each year.
Back to Education Allowance (BTEA): BTEA figures include all schemes but participants from JA & JB are not entitled to BTEA during the summer holidays
In addition, the Youth Guarantee initiative is specifically aimed at those under 25 who are unemployed with specific targeting of those who are either long-term unemployed or are most at risk of becoming long-term unemployed. The implementation of the Guarantee is a medium-term policy of the Irish Government. The guarantee of an offer of training, education or work experience for those aged less than 25 years after a four month period is currently being implemented on a phased basis. Processes and programmes are being progressively rolled out to ensure that all of those young unemployed people who need most support (i.e. are assessed as having a low probability of securing employment in the absence of support from the Public Employment Services) will receive a Youth Guarantee offer within four months. During 2014–2015 all long-term unemployed young people under 25 will be engaged by the Public Employment Service and will receive a Youth Guarantee offer if still unemployed after four months of this engagement process commencing.
With respect to evaluation of the impact of Pathways to Work and the Youth Guarantee, it cannot be precisely separated from the impact of other factors affecting the decline in long-term unemployment (such as the general improvement in the economy and the labour market resulting from the government’s overall economic and employment policies). A full evaluation of the Pathways to Work programme will be commissioned next year which will seek to quantify what aspects of Pathways to Work are most effective and the reasons for their effectiveness.
With respect to age profiling those on the live register, the Department of Social Protection keeps a detailed breakdown of the profiles of jobseekers. Data on each client’s age, past occupation, and his/her education, is collected at the point of registration for job-seekers’ payment; these and other relevant data are processed and the probability of exiting the live register is calculated (PEX). This is essentially a predictor of whether or not someone will become long-term unemployed. The roll-out of the profiling system at the Department’s ‘one-stop-shop’ Intreo offices implicitly involves age profiling of the long-term unemployed, as age is one of the main determining variables in predicting if someone will become long-term unemployed. In other words, if someone is in an age category that is more likely to experience long-term unemployment, s/he will, all other things being equal, receive more targeted assistance.
Summary statistical information on the clients’ age (under/over 25), duration of unemployment (under/over one year), and last held occupation together with other demographic and regional information is published on the Central Statistics Office website.
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