Michael McGrath
Question:81. Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance his estimate of Ireland’s current structural deficit; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [6535/15]
View answerThursday, 12 February 2015
Questions (81)
Written answers
The structural deficit for 2014 is estimated at 4.4% of GDP.
This is based on applying the harmonised methodology for the calculation of potential output to Budget 2015 macro-fiscal projections. The structural deficit is calculated as the headline general government balance less the part of the deficit owing to the economic cycle. This is known as the 'cyclical budgetary component' and relies on an estimate of the output gap. From this, one-off temporary measures impacting the deficit are also deducted to arrive at an estimate of the structural budgetary position. This is the budgetary position that would prevail in the absence of the impact of the economic cycle. On this basis, consistent with the Budget 2015 outlook, the structural budget balance is projected to improve to -3.4% of GDP in 2015.
The projected 2015 structural balance will be reassessed in the context of the forthcoming Stability Programme Update next April.