In the Stability Programme Update (SPU) published by the Department of Finance in December 2009 (NAMA was established in November 2009), it was indicated that over the medium term, new housing output levels were expected to gradually revert back towards 30,000 units per annum. The SPU noted that this figure was the tentatively estimated sustainable level over the medium term.
As is well recognised, projections regarding housing requirements are sensitive to assumptions regarding the change in population particularly migration (which in turn is sensitive to economic conditions), headship rates (the inverse of the average number of people per household), the rate of obsolescence of existing stock, and the natural housing vacancy rate.