Dáil Éireann Debate, Wednesday - 20 April 2016
7. Deputy Aengus Ó Snodaigh asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Protection her views on the projected numbers of recipients of jobseeker's benefit and jobseeker's allowance over the next five years and to provide a table including the estimated number of recipients in a given week each year and the percentage change; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [7258/16]
View answer8. Deputy Aengus Ó Snodaigh asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Protection her views on the projected numbers of recipients of supplementary welfare allowance over the next five years and to provide a table including the estimated number of recipients in a given week each year and the percentage change; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [7259/16]
View answer9. Deputy Aengus Ó Snodaigh asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Protection her views on the projected numbers of recipients of illness benefit and disability allowance over the next five years and to provide a table including the estimated number of recipients in a given week each year and the percentage change; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [7260/16]
View answer10. Deputy Aengus Ó Snodaigh asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Protection her views on the projected numbers of recipients of one-parent family payment over the next five years and to provide a table including the estimated number of recipients in a given week each year and the percentage change; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [7261/16]
View answer11. Deputy Aengus Ó Snodaigh asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Protection her views the projected numbers of recipients of carer's benefit and carer's allowance over the next five years and to provide a table including the estimated number of recipients in a given week each year and the percentage change; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [7262/16]
View answer12. Deputy Aengus Ó Snodaigh asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Protection her views on the projected numbers of recipients of State pension, contributory and non-contributory, over the next five years and to provide a table including the estimated number of recipients in a given week each year and the percentage change; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [7263/16]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 7 to 12, inclusive, together.
The following table provides the estimated average weekly numbers of weekly payments underlying allocations in the 2016 REV for each of the schemes covered by the Deputy’s questions.
|
Scheme |
Average number of weekly payments in 2016 |
|
Jobseeker’s Allowance |
239,260 |
|
Jobseekers Benefit |
38,300 |
|
Supplementary Welfare Allowance Basic Payments |
14,900 |
|
One Parent Family Payment |
41,390 |
|
Disability Allowance |
119,270 |
|
Illness Benefit |
56,550 |
|
Carers Allowance |
62,860 |
|
Carers Benefit |
2,300 |
|
State Pension (Contributory) |
386,800 (Note) |
|
State Pension (Non-Contributory) |
95,030 |
Note: number of recipients on State Pension (Contributory) includes 38,200 due a payment each week but paid once every four weeks.
To qualify for a primary weekly social welfare payment a person must experience a defined contingency, such as unemployment, disability, illness or lone parenthood, and satisfy either a social insurance contribution requirement (for a PRSI based payment) or a means test (for payments funded through general taxation). The incidence of certain contingencies can be difficult to predict and because of this, it is not possible to predict scheme demand over a five year period with accuracy.
For many schemes, it is difficult to project the change in recipients for each year over the next 5 years due to the potential impact of overall economic performance, labour market performance, customer circumstances and demographic changes. Recipient number trends during 2015 and the first half of 2016 will be reviewed over the next few months, with the objective of finalising the forecast of recipient numbers for 2017.
The number of recipients on Jobseekers Allowance and Jobseekers Benefit is dependent upon economic performance, labour force performance, the availability and take-up of in-work supports and transfers to working age employment supports. The 2016 REV Estimates includes a financial provision for jobseekers with an average Live Register of 305,250. The 2016 Expenditure Report published at the time of the 2016 Budget in October 2016, assumed an average Live Register of 289,000 in 2017 and 273,000 in 2018. These Estimates are subject to review and change having regard to the performance of the labour market in the lead up to Budget 2017 later in the year. At this stage, there is no Live Register forecast for the years 2019 to 2021. Having regard to all of these factors, it is not possible to provide the number of weekly payments on Jobseekers Allowance and Jobseekers Benefit for each year over the next five years.
The number of recipients on State Pension (Contributory) is dependent upon life expectancy, the contributions record of recipients and the age at which a state pension becomes payable. Section 7 of the Social Welfare and Pensions Act of 2011 provides for increasing the pension age to 67 in 2021. At present, demographic factors are likely to see the number of people qualifying for State Pension (Contributory) increasing in the range 17,000 to 18,000 each year up to 2021.
The number of recipients on State Pension (Non-Contributory) is dependent upon the number of people of pension age not qualifying for State Pension (Contributory), and the means of such people. At present, the numbers accessing this scheme are falling by a few hundred each year.
The number of recipients on Illness Benefit is dependent upon the numbers of people in employment, the increasing age profile of the labour force, the average duration of illness or injury and the continuing impact of previous budget measures. Given the range of potential variables, it is not possible to provide the number of weekly payments on Illness Benefit for each year over the next five years.
To qualify for Disability Allowance, a person must be substantially restricted in undertaking suitable employment, be aged between 16 and under 66, must satisfy a means test as well as a medical test and be habitually resident in the State. The following table provides the average number of recipients each year on Disability Allowance over the last five years:
|
Year |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
|
Average Number of Recipients |
100,280 |
101,550 |
103,100 |
108,800 |
115,030 |
119,270 |
While numbers on Disability Allowance have risen significantly over the last three years, it is more difficult to quantify the rate of increase for each year over the next five years given the range of variables outlined above affecting the number of recipients.
The numbers of recipients on One Parent Family Payment is dependent upon the number of lone parents where their youngest child is within the qualifying age for One Parent Family Payment satisfying a means test, availability of in-work supports for parents and economic circumstances of recipients, including their participation in the labour force. The number of recipients on Carers Allowance and Carers Benefit is dependent upon the availability of carers to care for people requiring care. All claims are subject to a medical assessment to determine the level of care required, with Carers Allowance being subject to a means test and Carers Benefit being subject to a contribution condition test. Given the range of potential variables, it is not possible to provide the number of weekly payments on these schemes for each year over the next five years.
Finally, the number of recipients claiming the Social Welfare Allowance Basic Payments scheme is mainly influenced by the number of people receiving interim payments while awaiting a decision on their primary scheme (for example, Disability Allowance or Jobseekers Allowance). Given variations in the throughput of new claims arising from various contingencies outlined above across the Department’s range of primary schemes, it is difficult to project trends for each year on this scheme over the next five years.
